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jersv.bsky.social
Youngish retiree. Past creative director, ongoing finance buff.
150 posts 26 followers 20 following
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From 1960-2023, the average inflation rate was 3.8% per year. Why is Fed hell-bent on 2.0? I'm afraid government firings will be followed by corporate job cuts and unemployment will rise. Let's lower now to a neutral rate and get ahead of this. Lowering may help housing and even decrease inflation.

We are siding with our communist enemy because our fuhrer wants to line his pockets and because 5 years ago Zelensky wouldn't lie about Biden to help tilt the election. Not normal politics. Scary times that can't end well.

AI seems to be a slow inflation. More like a big workout ball than a bubble. It gets bigger slowly and often times loses a little air, unlike the .com bubble. I'm hoping we eventually go from the hand pump to the electric so I can try to sell before the explosion.

I think this market is a coiled spring waiting for the tariff dust to clear. Eventually Bessent/Trump will bring deflation, deregulation, tax cuts and animal spirits. Combined with good earnings we may see a big melt up and the irrational exuberance I'm hoping for.

Scary truth-Federal employment is a form of necessary welfare. Cutting jobs will harm the economy. Cut spending on pork to reduce the deficit. Otherwise the economy will tank. It's why COVID subsidies kept GDP strong despite a big deficit and high rates.

If you have a set allocation in indexes and bond ladder, rebalance annually and have a rough monthly spending plan, all the opinions, reports, conjecture, and financial news is pretty much noise. I still consume it all because it's fascinating,but sticking to a simple plan has done good things.

One of the greatest tricks Trump pulled was getting the working class to vote against their own self interest. Funding cuts for things Headstart, child care credits..., means parents have to leave jobs or pay more to take care of their kids. Construction workers to cops are feeling Doge's cuts.

If I was President and wanted to make a money grab I'd launch a meme coin, an etf that held it among other stocks I owned and a sovereign fund that invested in it all. I'd also hint that to gain my favor, buy that coin or ETF. It's about money. Who cares about the country. Anyone worried?

Why individual investors may want to rethink a 'set-it-and-forget-it' strategy www.cnbc.com/2025/02/05/a... And the most self serving article goes to...

Dear other countries, Please pretend you're offering some concession when threatened with a tariff so our President can tell everyone what a great deal maker he is and my stocks can rise more consistently. This constant up and down is silly.

How long will it take the over 65 crowd to kick the sh*t out of Musk and Trump if DOGE screws with Medicare? I'm guessing and hoping minutes.

I don't blame Google for overspending on AI. They currently have the money and I think they are the most likely of the Mag7 to slip into obscurity as AI replaces search. Currently they still gather vast data, but if they don't transition to AI somehow, I believe they'll become obsolete.

The WSJ had no less than 4 opinion pieces on the stupidity of Trump's tariffs. This isn't political, it's financial. Breaking a treaty Trump himself signed with Canada and Mexico is idiocy. Plain and simple.

@downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social Can you make Ownership by Ritholtz Wealth a podcast so I don't crash my car?

AI Mag 6? Apple owns the consumer. Amazon owns the cloud. Microsoft owns enterprise. Meta owns social. Tesla owns Rob transportation. Google and Nvidia may become obsolete with cheap chips and AI search.

So AI just got cheaper. Isn't this very good news for the mag7 ex Nvidia? They generate tons of cash in their businesses, will make more from AI, and now can spend less on AI development.

The Fed is like many investors. They guess what's going to happen based on the news of the day. Tariffs, CPI, housing etc. They make the dots based on information that's constantly changing. Just lower rates to help people in CA afford to rebuild and acknowledge rates can come down .5 and chill.

The mag6 buy chips from mag7 Nvidia but also are developing their own chips. Maybe deepseek open source code gives them what they need for better, cheaper chips. Bad for Nvidia and chip makers, good for everyone else.