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joaosousa.bsky.social
Deputy Director of @fraserofallander.org at the University of Strathclyde, formerly at the OBR. Mostly economic and fiscal policy, plus the odd rugby and football post. Views are my own, shares are not endorsements. He/him
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Posts 21 Comments 29

Regardless of what one thinks of the policy, the PM's presentation of a £13.4bn increase in defence a year is very misleading. It would imply flat cash for defence, whereas we were already committed to 2.3%. So addition spending is £6.2bn a year from 2027 - which is why the ODA cut can fund it

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

After over a week heading in the same direction, there can be little doubt that interest rates are a huge danger for the UK Govt. And made much worse by barely complying with the (already loose) fiscal rules. All the headroom from October is gone

submitted 44 days ago • 1 comment

🎧 New podcast episode 🎧 Mairi Spowage and João P. Sousa join Jack Williamson to talk through the latest economic data, Scottish Budget Report, and key dates in 2025. Allison Catalano, Hannah Randolph, and Ben Cooper join to discuss some of the FAI’s 2024 highlights

submitted 71 days ago • 0 comments

Some more reaction to the Scottish Budget, as we look at the affordable housing budget announcements and what we have learned from the tax strategy. Read more below:

submitted 84 days ago • 0 comments

Our initial reaction to the Scottish Budget: a statement with an eye on the election, but announcements without costs attached and no accounting for the increase in NICs are risky - and make us wonder if any lessons on financial planning have been learned. Read more below:

submitted 85 days ago • 0 comments

Last chance to register! Join us tomorrow as we delve into the upcoming Scottish Budget, spotlighting key areas to watch. Mairi Spowage and @joaosousa.bsky.social will be joined by @cdbirt.bsky.social from Joseph Rowntree Foundation 📅Book your place here: https://buff.ly/3B3dp5Z

submitted 88 days ago • 0 comments

📢 NEW: Scotland’s Budget Report for 2024 📢 Today, we publish our report on Scottish Government's 2025-26 Budget. With limited fiscal flexibility and public sector pay pressures, the challenges are sharper than ever. Read it here: https://buff.ly/416qRRa

submitted 90 days ago • 0 comments

Join the discussion! 📢 Coming up on Monday, Mairi Spowage and @joaosousa.bsky.social will be joined by @cdbirt.bsky.social from Joseph Rowntree Foundation to explore the key challenges and areas to watch from our latest report on the Scottish Budget 📅 Don’t miss out: https://buff.ly/3B3dp5Z

submitted 90 days ago • 0 comments

Want to know what to look out for in the Scottish Budget? Join us on Monday 2nd December in person or online for reflections on the tax and spending challenges for the Scottish Government. Registration link below - see you there! https://buff.ly/3B3dp5Z

submitted 93 days ago • 0 comments

An empirical econ paper needs two things: 738 robustness checks concluding we can’t really ever fully be sure of internal validity in the appendix, and one (1) wild back of the envelope calculation indicating that the result is world-changing in the discussion section

submitted 93 days ago • 1 comment

In our latest Budget preview: how much will the employer NICs increase cost the public sector, and how does that compare with the numbers circulating in the media? Read more below:

submitted 94 days ago • 0 comments

Our third Scotland's Budget Report preview: this time, we're looking at the Scottish Government's resource net financial position over the year, how it's been affected by the UK Budget - and what the prospects are for whether the ScotWind proceeds will be needed

submitted 98 days ago • 0 comments

In our latest preview: how has health spending in Scotland changed since 2018-19? Our analysis shows that most growth has been in procurement (which includes agency staff). That has grown at 3.9% a year in real terms relative to 1.1% real-terms growth in pay. https://buff.ly/4fH58E5

submitted 105 days ago • 1 comment

In the other place, Government resources are being used to say that NICs weren't increased. Which is odd when the main revenue raiser was **checks notes** increasing NICs? Highly regrettable that civil service communications are being used for this, when no sane defence can be made that it's true

submitted 111 days ago • 0 comments

What can we learn from the first Budgets of post-war Chancellors? To what extent are they define by their first major policy event? These are the questions that have been occupying me for the past week or so. fraserofallander.org/publications...

submitted 122 days ago • 1 comment

Weekly update: Employers views on recruiting people with a learning disability, Scottish Business Monitor Q3 2024, UK Budget previews and Prevention Watch. Read here:

submitted 132 days ago • 0 comments

Is the fact that the Treasury always manages to comply with its fiscal rules a sign that they have improved outcomes? I argue the opposite - even discounting changes to rules, the fact that they are always hit point to a 'fiscal rule nutterism' that is damaging

submitted 134 days ago • 1 comment

We've seen A LOT of speculation - it seems clearly coming from No11 - about changing fiscal rules . Net worth has measurement issues that affect incentives pretty fundamentally. Net financial liabilities - meh, it would be okay but not solve the problem that it's debt you issue in the market

submitted 153 days ago • 1 comment

Scottish Income Tax: Mixed reactions from the business community

submitted 163 days ago • 0 comments

What's in the Treasury's 'normal reserve claims' that amounted to £8.6 billion? It's hard to know, even after spending an unhealthy number of hours trawling through previous years' reserve usage figures to understand how it's been managed and what it tells us about unfunded pressures

submitted 167 days ago • 1 comment

We've had the pre-budget fiscal update from the Finance Secretary this afternoon - so what did we make of it? Read our first thoughts here: fraserofallander.org/the-pre-budg...

submitted 177 days ago • 0 comments