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johnalty1.bsky.social
Ex - UK Civil servant; now at LSE; Trustee Director at Chartered Institute of Export; Competition Appeals Tribunal; NED at Trade Remedies Authority; adviser to Pagefield. Mostly trade and competition. And Liverpool FC.
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Astonishing insights on PM’s visit to US from @thetimes.com, eg “the PM intends to frame asks in a way that lets Trump claim them as ‘wins’”; or UK needing to advise Zelenskyy not to get in a shouting match “because Trump will always escalate.” Absolute geniuses !

I note that Maros Sefcovic is talking about reciprocal reduction of EU and US tariffs. It will be interesting to see how far the EU is ready to go in stretching the WTO rules requiring “substantially all trade” to be covered in an agreement. Quite a way, I imagine, given the US dismissal of them.

In light of latest of steel/aluminum tariff threats, it's a good time to review the evidence. This work finds job losses in metals-using sectors outweigh job gains in metal sectors ~75 to 1. Steel Tariffs and U.S. Jobs Revisited econofact.org/steel-tariff... via @econofact.bsky.social

The only slight silver lining from the tariff first trade policy is that it will be a long time before anyone dares to argue that putting up widespread barriers to trade is the solution to any problem, industrial or otherwise.

For once AI seems on the money: #steeltariffs

If EU lowers tariffs on cars, the UK will do so the day after (or maybe even before, since it can act quicker). Views @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social @davidheniguk.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/bed3...

New five-week online course! Greek Tragedy in Performance with Professor Judith Mossman. 📆Starts 26 February, 6.00pm - 7.30pm (UK time) + recordings will be available 🎫 buff.ly/4gs79n3 #AncientBluesky #ClassicsBluesky

Disappointed that Sir Bob Watson talking on Today about climate change doesn’t mention nuclear power as a solution. Wind and sun not enough, unfortunately.

1/2 The key to the UK/EU SPS negotiations lies in positive/negative lists ! Positive lists specify areas where both sides agree to apply the same rules. If it’s not on the list you can adopt your own. Negative lists say you follow the rules except for the items on the list.

@johnkampfner.bsky.social what do you think of Wolfgang Munchau’s book ? Excoriating, especially on Germany Russia, neo mercantilism.

Interesting times in Brussels. At an EU-UK Forum today at a “venue with a view” sensing for the first time that, albeit timidly and carefully, the famous EU-UK 🇪🇺🇬🇧reset is gradually happening. #tradewars #letsthanktrump

“Economist Benoît Coeuré, head of the French competition authority, mused that the weakening of Britain’s CMA, now headed by a former Amazon executive, is “a cautionary tale” about how political influence can thwart national sovereignty.” @ranaforoohar.bsky.social Cutting, from the French.

Glad to see I’m on the same page as @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social on Japan: “Lowe believes ministers are more likely to try to avert US tariffs in the first place and said they had studied the way Japan dealt with Trump in his first term. “Basically keep your head down and don’t provoke him.”

Optimism may sound naive, but there’s all to play for. www.pagefield.co.uk/news-insight...

Brussels ‘buy European’ procurement plan echoes ‘America First’ @financialtimes.com . How utterly depressing and short sighted, as well as a breach of international obligations. Thought vdL said you know where you stand with the EU a a partner. Clearly not.

With thanks to @thecitp.bsky.social their article on "should the UK join PEM" linked below. In sum: " [Apart from] some narrowly defined products.. the data suggests that advantages may be minimal and joining PEM will not matter much when exporting to the EU." citp.ac.uk/publications...

@faisalislam.bsky.social disappointed that you didn’t post your report about Lib Dems call for a UK/EU customs union here as I can guarantee you would have got some more intelligent commentary !

Always amusing to see journalists trying to get their heads round the results of trade missions. CX £600m variously described as “cash injection”, “inward investment” and “agreements”; and that’s just in @thetimes.com. In fact, from what I can see, mostly better access to Chinese market.

Milei slashes tariffs to bring down high prices A pleasant change to read an article about the cost of tariffs to the consumer and the case for reducing them ! digitaleditionapp.ft.com/i9DX?pid=af_...

‘In his letter, Diamond, who is chief executive of the UK Statistics Authority, spoke of “flatlined core funding, ringfenced budgets, and substantial inflationary impacts” following the last government’s 2021 spending review.’ @financialtimes.com That’s the sort of plain speaking we need !

Today’s Trade Secrets: the day friendshoring died. It’s not even that the Biden administration sold out its allies to help the US steel industry. It’s that it’s not going to help the steel industry either. on.ft.com/4a4O34I

“Without domestic steel production and domestic steel workers, our nation is less strong and less secure." Possibly so, but why would that prevent ownership and new investment by a Japanese company ? #NipponSteel

“JustGiving operator paid out £24.5m in dividends to US parent firm.” Maybe I’ll think twice next time I’m asked to top up my donation to cover JG’s admin costs. www.thetimes.com/article/1f8f...

This is what happens when you try to cancel your subscription @TheEconomist (and you have gone through the numerous intermediary pages). Completely outrageous, worst type of scam behaviour. I’m definitely cancelling now..

Just been reading Gideon Rachman’s notes from Davos in 2007, 8 and 10 @FT . Sounds like another universe - I can’t actually imagine a Davos in 2025, tho’ I assume the caravan will roll on, however irrelevant its wares.

See my take on #CPTPP quoted below. It isn’t an alternative to or replacement for EU membership but still worthwhile in current choppy waters for international trade. Glad to see so many informed and thoughtful responses to this article. That’s what makes Bsky different.

Lots of comments on Rachel Reeves meeting with EU Finance Ministers, mostly uncomplimentary. I’m afraid if you want to rejoin the single market and customs union, you really have to rejoin the EU. There is case for the latter, but the former without it makes no political sense.

But, as I said, that doesn’t mean giving up on pursuing freer trade !

A quick reminder that there are benefits to your economy from lowering trade barriers

You can rely on @theguardian.com: “After years of being gaslit by government, we civil servants can breathe again under Labour” July 2024

See my thoughts on UK/US trade from the perspective of the food industry @FoodManufacture www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2024...