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johnn.bsky.social
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Market Shifts Toward Growth Scare & Risk Hedging • Increased demand for downside protection via put options and VIX call buying. • Volatility term structure flattened as markets hedge against economic uncertainty. • Swaptions reflect a “Growth Scare Accident” risk, indicating a shift in sentiment.

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

Core PCE inflation slowed to +2.65% Y/Y in January, approaching the Fed’s target. U.S. Personal Income rose for the 40th straight month, but spending fell for the first time in nearly two years.

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

Recent data indicate a slowdown in U.S. economic growth: • Weak retail sales (lowest since March 2023) • Contractionary services PMI • Declining consumer sentiment (UMich reading)

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Hester Peirce/SEC on crypto: seek creative solutions within its statutory framework while maintaining its three-part mission of protecting investors, maintaining fair markets, and facilitating capital formation.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Equities are finally pricing in a higher risk of economic slowdown, aligning with earlier Rate Vol / Swaptions market movements.

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

CTA trend models flipped short, with -$18.2B in S&P e-mini selling Friday, but a reversal could occur above 6076. Volatility control models cut -$5.5B in exposure, marking a significant 1-day reduction.

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

US Government Shutdown Risk (March 14th) adds another layer of uncertainty. Market reevaluating the early Trump policy mix, seeing it as a bigger economic drag than initial post-election optimism suggested.

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

Microsoft Data Center Lease Cancellation Rumors: Initially fueled concerns of an “AI Capex bubble”, though MSFT later refuted, reiterating its $80B spending target.

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Broad growth scare evident in US markets, impacting industrials, financials, and materials, while defensives, utilities, and staples outperformed.

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Despite strong technicals, the credit market faces downside risks. Current spread levels offer an attractive entry point for short positions.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Retail traders, corporates, and institutional flows have been strong, but their buying momentum is slowing.

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

U.S. JAN CPI +0.5% (CONSENSUS +0.3%) , EX FOOD AND ENERGY +0.4% (CONSENSUS +0.3%)

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

Feb 5. Feb 12.

submitted 17 days ago • 74 comments

CPI consensus at 0.34bps on core; markets seem relaxed!

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

Custom model portfolios have grown significantly, reaching over $125 billion in assets as of Sept. 30, 2024, marking a 50% increase since June 30, 2023.

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

Concerns around DeepSeek fading; hedge funds net bought US equities all last week at the fastest pace since November.

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

Same thing happened with Trump tariffs in 2018. China based factory owners moved workers to places like Vietnam and Cambodia to help set up factories there. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

Chinese stocks, particularly tech, are undervalued compared to historically expensive US stocks. Recovering from a recession and property downturn-- potential government stimulus in response to tariffs could further boost economic growth.

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

Markets navigated mixed earnings reports and remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with a focus on upcoming payroll data. Equities had a choppy session, treasury yields edged higher, credit remained mostly steady, and the USD traded mixed after jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations.

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

S&P 500 valuations remain historically high, especially in mega-cap tech. Not at record highs, but elevated enough to trigger concern during volatile periods.

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

US Natural Gas: • Henry Hub Prices: Slight increase expected. • Regional Impact: Greater effect on Canadian prices and Western U.S. markets. • LNG & Propane: Potential flow shifts due to retaliation; limited flexibility for U.S. ethane exports.

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Tariffs reflect U.S. willingness to pressure trade partners despite energy price risks. • Canada: 10% tariff, expected neutral impact as costs shift to importers/consumers. • Mexico: 25% tariff, potential disruptions but alternative supply options exist.

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

CDS positioning: Continued increase in risk across indices over the past week.

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

New Record High: Surged above $2,820/oz as Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China fueled investor anxiety.

submitted 24 days ago • 1 comment

Auto Sales: U.S. Auto Sales declined 7.2% M/M in January, marking the worst month since May 20221 Dealers likely pushed December sales to get ahead of Trump's tariffs on Canadian auto parts 25% tariff on Canada/Mexico has been delayed until next month

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Temporary Nature of Tariffs: Markets expect eventual negotiations to ease tensions, with both sides (Canada/US) incurring losses but the U.S. positioning for relative gains.

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

SPX volatility market sees excess supply in slightly out-of-the-money (OTM) calls and excess demand in far OTM calls (2-week to 1-month maturities). This aligns with growth in call overwriting products, creating structural imbalances in SPX call spreads.

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

3rd consecutive month with no progress *US DEC. PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3% *US DEC. PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.6% *US DEC. CORE PCE RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2% *US DEC. CORE PCE RISES 2.8% Y/Y; EST. +2.8%

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

Professional investors increasing short positions, outpacing long buys 10 to 1 in January.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

Private credit managers remain in high demand, driving continued M&A activity in the alternative investment space.

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

Market leaders (Steve Cohen, Robyn Grew, and others) see Trump’s deregulation efforts as a catalyst for capital markets.

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

U.S. Wholesale Inventories fell for the fourth consecutive month in December (-0.46% M/M, -0.15% Y/Y).

submitted 31 days ago • 1 comment

Fiscal expansion remains a tail risk rather than a base case.

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

Despite high dividend yields, REITs have significantly lagged behind stocks in total returns since their 2007 peak.

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

Equities rebounded from the previous day’s AI-driven selloff, with megacap tech gearing up for earnings season. Rates remained steady following strong 7-year auction demand, credit markets compressed, and the USD maintained its strength amid tariff discussions.

submitted 31 days ago • 1 comment

submitted 32 days ago • 0 comments

S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) showed fractional gains despite Nvidia’s plunge yesterday.

submitted 32 days ago • 0 comments

DeepSeek founder on the spirit of open source: “Open source, publishing papers, in fact, do not cost us anything. For technical talent, having others follow your innovation gives a great sense of accomplishment...

submitted 32 days ago • 1 comment