jordischroeder.bsky.social
Researcher at Positive Money EU.
Central Banking | Political Economy
446 posts
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527 following
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Maybe their interests are contradictory. Maybe they're just incapable of the most basic reasoning. Or maybe they're just doing on purpose. Perhaps a bit of each. Either way, it is quite exasperating.
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Quizás esto ayude a explicarlo?
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And yes, building fossil fuel infrastructure would boost demand, but it would be weird to build the same infrastructure that is being decommissioned.
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I'd say I mainly argued from a purely national accounting standpoint, where one person's costs are another's income, and these flows drive growth. Conversely, you're thinking in terms of the Solow model, which assumes a fixed capacity.
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But precisely when natural disasters are followed by construction booms, these tend to increase output. "Growth" from a purely national accounting standpoint does not necessarily correspond to what you mean by "richer".
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Ultimately, as you point out in the post, the key question is whether we see the economy as demand- or supply-constrained, and, furthermore, what our theory of interest rate determination is.
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As for carbon offsets, while the sale of emission permits itself has not net impact on GDP, the investment on carbon removal infrastructure would positively contribute to growth.
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I don’t see how decommissioning is necessarily bad for growth. If anything, replacing infrastructure more rapidly increases capital investment, which leads to higher growth. I'd say that the main challenge is not that of coordinating this process in a way that it does not lead to price pressures.
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Great news everyone it was so much more FUCKING STUPID than it may at first appear
www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/c...
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100%, ve a ser el mateix, però amb tres cops més plàstic, cinc cops més car i un repartidor que t'ho porta a casa, perquè anar al supermercat és un esforç titànic per a aquesta gent.
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Bossetes de plàstic amb verdureta tallada, receptes per amanides (AMANIDES!), pans en forma de cor per Sant Valentí. Absolutament patètic i aberrant. Gent incapaç de fer les tasques més bàsiques de la vida adulta passada la trentena.
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The largest share of worker in the euro area have contracts lasting more than two years. Most of them have only renegotiated their contracts once since 2021 (blue bar, right panel). This means that wages take a longer-time to catch-up with rising prices.
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Yup, the other graph didn't paste properly, but the differences in construction and industrial gross value-added is quite astonishing:
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Yup, I didn't mention that part, but income pessimism has a significant toll on consumption:
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The importance of the PEPP is often highlighted as a key measure during Covid. However, collateral easing measures played a crucial yet overlooked role in supporting financial stability. These measures helped mobilise previously ineligible collateral, such as ACCs or Greek bonds.
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Between 2021 and 2024, unemployment has decreased most sharply among workers with primary education, non-EU immigrants, women, and older workers.
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Two important points here. In Belgium, where wages are indexed, households' perceptions are less pessimistic. Furthermore, poorer households tend to have more negative perceptions. This makes me wonder—given their different consumption baskets—are those perceptions actually that wrong?
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Perceptions of real income are disconnected from actual changes, as households are more negative on income developments than what realised outcomes indicate. This can help explain the divergence between real income and consumption that has taken place in the last couple of years.
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Funnily enough, in another paper from the Bulletin, the authors look at wage developments in the euro area using Bernanke-Blanchard's model. Here, labour market conditions play only a marginal role in wage growth and have almost no impact on inflation.
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In turn, they argue that wage growth is mainly explained by labour market tightness and catch-up dynamics. However, they do not discuss the "other factors" in the graph, which seem to be the dominating force at present.
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According to the authors, non-rent services inflation is mostly explained by the wage-productivity differential.
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Inflation in services accounts for the largest share of headline inflation in advanced economies.
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A very neat graph showing how context-dependent ECB communications are: from the complete monopolisation of financial discussions from 2009 to 2014 to the spike in inflation in 2020.
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This leads to opposite medium-term impacts on output, which declines in middle-income regions and increases in high-income ones.
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In high income regions, flooding is followed by a construction boom and a rise in industrial output, while, in middle-income regions, there is no surge in construction and industrial output falls. www.ecb.europa.eu/press/econom...
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The only way forward is through collectivized EU debt with the full firepower of the ECB behind it.
Hubert Védrine used to be fond of saying the EU must choose btw being a global power or a large Switzerland.
But the choice it now faces is btw being a global power and a large protectorate.
/End
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In most EMDEs it was (is) a normal practice for central banks to issue bonds. In most Latam countries that's how they "created" a yield curve, in the absence of enough govt debt.
Also, the ECB has issued certificates of deposits in the past, if I'm not wrong, so not that different either
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Particularly sad given that most of Spain's current wine regions will no longer be suitable for grape cultivation in two generations
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Well, most of the divergence comes before that, no? Do you know to what extent these caps on essential products were far-reaching / effective?