Profile avatar
karl-schamotta.bsky.social
Chief Market Strategist, Corpay by day. Nerd by night.
345 posts 1,247 followers 496 following
Prolific Poster
Conversation Starter

Well, well, if it isn’t the consequences of my own actions.

Three things worth knowing about the current fiscal debate: 1. When they're talking about savings, the numbers are usually billions (though sometimes millions). 2. When they're talking about tax cuts, the numbers are usually trillions. 3. A trillion is a thousand times larger than a billion.

Q: How many Trump administration people does it take to change a lightbulb? A: To get to the other side.

Egg situation getting so dire that Tariff Man is looking to increase imports lololol www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/u...

<--- doesn't think the market is properly pricing anti oligarch risk spreading beyond Musk

Was it not Katharine Graham who said, I'll tell you what to print, lads and it'll be what the president wants.

We really need the whole tech thing to fall apart next month so that everyone can run “Ives of March” headlines

In case someone finds it useful, here's a ranking of states and other jurisdictions by the federal government's share of nonfarm payroll employment as of 2024.

These people are all crazy . It’s like someone in MAGA land got a copy of the Russian and Chinese intelligence services covert action plan to destroy America and they’re implementing it . www.ft.com/content/2dfa...

Considering one of the Eyes is rapidly going blind, might not be the worst thing for Canada:

Thanks Obama

Adorable that Musk thinks he can cut the US deficit by reducing government employment.

Reminiscent of this classic in the forecasts-are-folly genre:

At some point the Brits and the Europeans are going to realize that funding universities, funding defense, and getting away from the dollar all have the same solution: more debt.

Buoyed by Germany’s election outcome, the euro is pushing back through the 1.05 threshold that has proven so stubborn in recent months:

Catalogue of historical horrors. Fascism in January, modern colonialism in February, we should have the Inquisition by the Summer.

@brianromanchuk.bsky.social your FSB theory is gaining more credence by the minute.

The greatest trick the media ever pulled was convincing Americans that Donald Trump had "business acumen"

Canadians this morning:

This is the nightmare scenario for Canada and Mexico. If Trump is simply looking for the biggest denominator for revenue-raising (and I’m beginning to suspect he is), North American trading partners will get hit the hardest, despite all the attempts at sane-washing his motivations.

There’s a silver lining in Trump’s trade war with Canada, @bobburgess.bsky.social says. The US’s northern neighbor may finally confront the structural weaknesses plaguing its economy

It’s no exaggeration to say that overweight Americans are a substantial reason Denmark will be able to mobilize massive public defence investments in the coming years. Funny how that works.

Two narratives about China's economy: - Macro weakness - Technological and industrial strength They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

And as Gerd Gigerenzer showed after September 11, fear of flying can get people killed: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15043650/

Neville Chamberlain, to do him justice, never amplified under his own byline Hitler's propaganda against the Czechs

When Queen Victoria’s mourning disrupted the "London Season" (elite marriage market), peer-commoner intermarriage rose by 40%, marital wealth sorting fell by 30%, and peers' political power declined as a result. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Olaf Scholz mocked British railways over “broken tracks and bad trains”, claiming that "nothing works any more” in the UK. Turns out: Germany rail problems have become so bad that Deutsche Bahn long-distance service is less punctual than even the worst operator in Britain. www.ft.com/content/d3b6...

Gives the lie to the notion that tariffs on Canada had something to do with fentanyl.

Profiteering conversion: A sudden and complete change in one's belief in free-market capitalism when an opportunity for personal gains is identified

My illegal Pinkerton is driving me to my illegal hotel while the hallucination machine in my phone summarizes the emails my coworkers wrote using their hallucination machines. My burrito travels separately in its own limo. This is innovation and normal.

The national mood

"Xi is making China’s trade partners and competitors pay for the government’s misplaced bet on real estate and its longer-term failure to strengthen the spending of Chinese households" - from Brad Setser (who, bafflingly, isn't here yet) NY Times: www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...

Toronto looking a bit like a Sugimoto seascape this evening:

@chrisgiles.ft.com on why Mad King economic policy might not lead to a voter backlash www.ft.com/content/61ae...

"The US shouldn’t have stupid tariff policies just because other countries have stupid tariff policies." Reciprocal tariffs amount to outsourcing US tariff policy to other countries, @douglasirwin.bsky.social writes in @wsj.com. So much for deciding what’s in our own national interest.

You have to admit that going up against propositions that are true by definition is a bold intellectual move.