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kitjuckes.bsky.social
A fool on a moor… born in Kitale, brought up in Les Alluets, studied economics at UCL and fell in love. 40 years later I’m still trying to figure out how it all works.
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A ‘bad’ 0.1% rise in GDP is better than a 0.1% fall but the only way this helps in the medium term is if it’s indication that Christmas came to the UK late, rather than not at all. Making a note to pay attention to Jan retail sales, 7am, next Friday.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Our lessons in the art of the deal continue, but for the first time ever the UK’s dire balance of payments have allowed me to sell sterling at an improved rate. Small mercies but still…

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Happy National Hedgehog Day! Here’s a list of meanings of words for a hedgehog in eight languages... Shrinking pig (Afrikaans) Furry pig (Hungarian) Thorned animal (Punjabi) Cow sucker (Luxembourgish) Adder eater (Polish) Ouch mouse (Bahasa Adama) Needle rat (Japanese) Horrible little thing (Irish)

submitted 25 days ago • 24 comments

Can someone get Brad ‘“If Donald Trump doesn’t slow down, he may succeed at triggering a recession” Setser on here, please?

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

Duncan’s and the dollar debate. Economic exceptionalism took it to the moon, tariff terror took it to heights last seen nearly 40 years ago, until Reagan/Baker intervened. The difference this year may be that while it will fall back eventually, it won’t fall very far until/unless share prices do.

submitted 39 days ago • 0 comments

UK ‘stagflation’ bingo lasted less than a minute, as it appeared in the first newswire comment after this morning’s awful retail sales data (down 0.6% in Dec ex fuel) with food and online the weakest bits. Rate cuts are coming and some journo will write a “Rachel ruined Christmas” piece, no doubt.

submitted 41 days ago • 0 comments

‘It's a jam-packed day in markets, with earnings season kicking off in earnest and the consumer-price index due. Will either event be able to kick stocks out of their latest slump?’ journo email this morning. SPX has trebled in the last decade but a 4% fall from the peak qualifies as a ‘slump’.

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

UK inflation edged down to 2.5%, core to 3.2%. Gilt relief, pound a little firmer, even if softness in alcohol, tobacco, clothing, restaurants and hotels points to a low-key, not-so-joyous Christmas mood.

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

“When bond markets get sticky, it is unhelpful to be the ugliest horse in the glue factory” wrote someone… trouble is, bonds might get stickier. Next stop, US CPI on Wednesday. Hibernation appeals more and more.

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

So who is Donald Trump’s James Baker (without whom the dollar is going to go on overshooting until we’re way past silly)? This from the NYT

submitted 55 days ago • 0 comments

Jimmy Carter signing the Humphrey Hawkins act into law in 1978….

submitted 59 days ago • 0 comments

The Canadian dollar has been plunging! Full Stop

submitted 70 days ago • 0 comments

No-one pays attention to US PMI data; they’re only publishing them to show off, at this stage.

submitted 73 days ago • 1 comment

A new take on the merits of the four day working week. Henry Ford was widely criticised for introducing a 5-day back in the day, but it boosted productivity…

submitted 76 days ago • 0 comments

UK economy unexpectedly contracts 0.1% in October https://www.ft.com/content/b1177705-1be7-45e1-877c-d1d9934396b2

submitted 76 days ago • 7 comments

@robarmstrong.bsky.social Unhedged piece this morning (US bubble, China Japanification) is fab.

submitted 86 days ago • 0 comments

A primer in Trump’s geo-political playbook - get their attention, talk, declare victory - and a nightmare for currency traders in search of a quiet life! He talked the dollar up to the top of the hill, then….

submitted 91 days ago • 0 comments

The Bessent rally, or month-end and time to pause? Equities up, yields down, dollar down as DT Opts for a grownup at Treasury. Probably as much positioning & month-end as reaction to the Treasury Sec nominee, but it makes markets less correlated and more interesting for the rest of 2024

submitted 93 days ago • 0 comments

Today’s goes down as a Monday-ish Monday. Dollar ran out of enthusiasm as yields fell, allowing equities to limp into positive territory. Stage 1 of the election rally over? There will be no big turn however, until European policymakers dream up ways of investing European excess savings at home.

submitted 100 days ago • 0 comments