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“The future of science will involve large language muddles.” Sayings of Confuseus

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Good to see this paper finally published in EJON, after a strange prior experience with another journal, "Inter-individual differences in the blood pressure lowering effects of dietary nitrate: a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled replicate crossover trial" link.springer.com/article/10.1...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

The best thing about being an AI bro is that you get to play in everybody’s junk yard

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

This past month has seen the publication of a couple of new helpful papers providing further insights into the thorny issue of #MultipleTesting in trials 1/7 #MethodologyMonday #112

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

LLMs can't take responsibility for their mistakes. When a human journalist puts their name on AI-written text, they take on that responsibility. Increasingly I see inaccurate and badly written news stories authored by AI, many of which have actual humans listed as authors or editors.

submitted 5 days ago • 6 comments

"A study by Lolli [143] validated the accuracy of Oura’s Sleep Staging Algorithm 2.0, showing that its measurements closely matched PSG, with sleep staging accuracy ranging from 75.5% for light sleep to 90.6% for REM sleep." - in Biosensors journal from MDPI. But, how if I never run such a study?

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

In 1931 Mussolini imposed to all academics to pledge allegiance to the fascist regime -- or be fired. Just 12 out of ~1200 academics chose not to in the whole country. Here are the names of those brave few who chose to forfeit their careers.

submitted 7 days ago • 4 comments

The mistake is to assume that...‘the effect on you of a given treatment will almost certainly differ from its effect averaged over others,’ justifies ... ‘I am going to ignore the considerable evidence from others and just back my best hunch about you’. errorstatistics.com/2018/01/30/s...

submitted 14 days ago • 1 comment

Thrilled to announce the creation of the @elisabethbik.bsky.social Science Integrity Fund to provide "funding for training programs, grants, or awards for science integrity advocates." Thanks to @science.org for covering this. Help us grow the fund with a tax-deductible donation.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

NEW BMJ PAPER "Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches" - most models provide just a risk estimate - we argue for presenting associated uncertainty too - includes pros, cons, PPIE & methods Hope helpful! www.bmj.com/content/388/...

submitted 15 days ago • 2 comments

Excited to share a new paper from @insitro.bsky.social (first author @zmccaw.bsky.social ) in @hggadvances.bsky.social vances.bsky.social on scrutinizing the practice of using a ratio trait (numerator / denominator) for GWAS. www.cell.com/hgg-advances...

submitted 17 days ago • 3 comments

Just published a couple of pre-prints for those interested in sample size calculations for precise and fair individual-level predictions ... (not the end of the story, but a useful contribution we hope): Binary outcomes: arxiv.org/abs/2407.09293 Survival outcomes: arxiv.org/abs/2501.14482

submitted 16 days ago • 1 comment

I've just had a reply from MDPI Integrity people about my query re editors/reviewers, which I've posted at the end of my piece. They explain that, in line with COPE guidelines they aim to educate rather than evict dodgy editors/reviewers. I think this is ill-advised, but there you go!

submitted 16 days ago • 3 comments

Simulation is just mathematics by other means. It’s what you do when you don’t know how to calculate. To think it is a substitute for experimentation and the data it produces is a digital sin.

submitted 17 days ago • 3 comments

It was a pleasure to work with co-authors on this paper, "Inter-individual differences in the blood pressure lowering effects of dietary nitrate: A randomised double-blind placebo-controlled replicate crossover trial" Just accepted for Eur J Nutr. Preprint here: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

“Many physicians like within-patient studies but statisticians can get cross over them.” Sayings of Confuseus

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

In clinical research, you will often receive feedback on study design, stats, and/or data analysis from an editor or reviewer that is simply wrong. Here is a list of common "statistical myths" and references you can use to push back. discourse.datamethods.org/t/reference-...

submitted 108 days ago • 48 comments

Investigating fraud and errors in health research is obviously laudable. But we need to maintain high methodological standards. That means scrutinising each others’ work, and calling each other out when we err. There are so many errors in error detection. A few recurring errors:

submitted 21 days ago • 6 comments

In case you ever felt the need to obtain a p value from a confidence interval: www.bmj.com/content/343/... And in case you're wondering: I just used this on a manuscript and of course it came out at something like p = .038, lol.

submitted 22 days ago • 8 comments

Periodic reminder the world of data analysis cannot be meaningfully categorised into "machine learning" and "statistics". Two cultures with substantial overlap in the use of methods (e.g. logistic regression), analytical goals (e.g. causal inference) and history jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

submitted 24 days ago • 5 comments

Ensuring a trial has an independent data monitoring committee (DMC) is crucial to the safety and oversight of clinical trials. But a question this week was whether there is ever a scenario where a DMC might legitimately be deemed not to be essential 1/8 #MethodologyMonday #110

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

"Another cautionary note on the use of CV centres around its practical meaning to researchers performing experiments. Some scientists seem to have chosen, 𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙩𝙚 𝙖𝙧𝙗𝙞𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙡𝙮, an analytical goal of the CV being 10% or below"

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

“Designs involving analogue twins have long been popular in the world of real intelligence.” Saying of Confuseus pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9731714/

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

🚨 Beware of brands using "science" as a marketing ploy at #MDPI! Some sports nutrition products cherry-pick studies exaggerate findings to sell supplements. It’s not just deceptive—it undermines real research and consumer trust. 🤡 #SportsNutrition #ResearchEthics

submitted 26 days ago • 2 comments

"Social media platforms—the empire of these 'broligarchs'—are now a primary source of health information. Much of that information is either misinformation or disinformation and is therefore harmful to health and wellbeing" @kamranabbasi.bsky.social www.bmj.com/content/388/...

submitted 27 days ago • 9 comments

Oh my lord it's christmas come early! I didn't even realize the authors had written a reply, but they did, and it's glorious! 😆 More than I could have ever dreamed of. cc @timpmorris.bsky.social (link in next post)

submitted 31 days ago • 12 comments

Fake scientific papers made with AI used names of 3 Japan researchers

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

"This month, Retraction Watch announced a sleuth-in-residence programme. Such initiatives are to be applauded; more are needed." @abalkina.bsky.social @elisabethbik.bsky.social @deevybee.bsky.social @jabyrnesci.bsky.social @gcabanac.cpesr.fr @clearskiesadam.bsky.social @nhwise.bsky.social et al

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

All my ecology peeps slinging the GAM(M)s might find this paper interesting. I was surprised to learn there is a frequentist interpretation of GAM(M)s! (jk) besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

submitted 31 days ago • 3 comments

This piece is based on our paper, sciencedirect.com/science/arti..., which is well worth a read to see how statistics informs physiological inferences. The study of a very important physiological hypothesis being compromised by correlating X with Y-X and getting excited about a -ve slope.

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

‘Stamp out paper mills’ — science sleuths on how to fight fake research @nature.com

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

An LLM "creates textual claims, and then predicts the citations that might be associated with similar text. Obviously, this practice violates all norms of scholarly citation. At best, LLMs gesticulate toward the shoulders of giants." Bender, West, and I contributed to this pro/con piece in PNAS.

submitted 32 days ago • 13 comments

An issue that often comes up is how to set a “non-inferiority margin” in a non-inferiority trial and how to ensure it is appropriate 1/8 #MethodologyMonday #109

submitted 32 days ago • 2 comments

There is no statistical solution to the problem of causal inference from observational data, it requires good scientific & statistical judgement, & knowledge of the literature. Folks like short cuts (propensity scores, E values etc) to avoid hard thinking. Such short cuts don’t exist.

submitted 35 days ago • 3 comments

Paper retracted after author told journal study was ‘𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙚𝙙’ @retractionwatch.com retractionwatch.com/2025/01/24/p...

submitted 32 days ago • 0 comments

Paper retracted after author told journal study was ‘not actually performed’ from @retractionwatch.com

submitted 32 days ago • 0 comments

“Disinformation has become a deliberate instrument to attack and discredit scientists and health professionals for political gains. The effects are destructive and damaging to public health.” 𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. @thelancet.bsky.social Volume 405, Issue 10474P173January 18, 2025.

submitted 42 days ago • 0 comments

This is a thoughtful new book chapter on the 2D:4D digit ratio. @lorenzololli.bsky.social's work is cited to demonstrate the substantial allometric problems. The whole field is based on very weak & tenuous correlations. It's amazing how much traction it's received. web.natur.cuni.cz/flegr/pdf/di...

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

There has been a lot of discussion around how to assess trustworthiness of research studies (including investigation of fraud). Some thoughts on this below, to appear in @jclinepi.bsky.social - with @davidit.bsky.social : www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

submitted 45 days ago • 1 comment