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luketryl.bsky.social
Lover of finding out what people think. Director @moreincommonuk.bsky.social https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/
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Really difficult to know whether intention to vote (as in turnout) is reliable and I’d still expect younger maybe-voters to be the most likely to overestimate.

submitted 2 hours ago • 0 comments

This is key to what happens this week: Reform voters are the *most* likely to say they’ll vote on Thursdays but *least* likely to vote normally: whether enthusiasm trumps habit will determine extent of reform success. If you’re interested in this stuff & not following @edhodgsoned.bsky.social do!

submitted 3 hours ago • 3 comments

We asked voters in this week's local elections to describe the four largest parties in England in a word - can you guess which is which?

submitted 7 hours ago • 17 comments

🇺🇸100 days into the 2nd Trump presidency and his approval among Brits has fallen further since his inauguration to -44. The biggest drop is among Reform UK voters who previously gave Trump positive net approval of 31 and its now just 1.

submitted 9 hours ago • 4 comments

The idea that the government simply has to deliver on its missions to win back public trust (and electoral support) is fanciful. The depth of disillusionment with British politics and government is very clear from focus groups like these...

submitted 14 hours ago • 18 comments

This is right so much could happen between now and 2029 almost no outcome would surprise me (as it did between 2021-2025!) and there is a real danger of over interpretation on Saturday. Equally is possible to be pollyannish and react to local elections with “nothing to see here, it’s too far out”

submitted 14 hours ago • 4 comments

Got back last night from focus groups this weekend in Beverley, Hull,Scunthorpe & Peterborough and without doubt the disillusionment was the worst I’ve heard, in every group it was anger; despondency or misery about the state of Britain that doesn’t feel sustainable.

submitted 15 hours ago • 21 comments

One thing that’s jumped out from focus groups, that I hadn’t quite anticipated is the risk that constant Tory/Reform merger chat makes the Tories look weak. Had several variants of “you can tell they’re struggling because now they’re trying to get in with Reform”

submitted 1 day ago • 11 comments

"There's this slightly lazy assumption that voters are like Lego bricks. You can just stack them on top of one another." ICYMI @luketryl.bsky.social joins us to take stock of the polls – and what they might say about Thursday's local elections www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/podcast/insi...

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

Our polling shows Reform are likely win the mayoralty in Hull and East Yorkshire next week - to find out why people are voting for Reform we’ve been holding focus groups across the mayoralty for the last week. Here’s what I learned from a group of voters in Hull on Thursday 🧵

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments