marcelorinesi.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Interesting from @kyleichan.bsky.social: it's a good overview at one of the basic ongoing shifts in the global economy.

submitted 8 minutes ago • 0 comments

Interesting as always from @const-physics.blogsky.venki.dev . Aside: the centrality of software startups to our contemporary view of cutting-edge tech has distorted it. VCs & markets want MVPs and agile, but there are forms of frontier-pushing technology where that doesn't work. That's... 1/

submitted 3 hours ago • 1 comment

#ScienceFiction (really short) #ShortStories posted during February: "Mandelbrot City Fragment" (some rendering bugs are features)

submitted 14 hours ago • 1 comment

I'm convinced the technologically sophisticated state that holds off the longest before adopting LLM (if ever) is going to get a huge advantage. There's no proof that it can be used the way you think you're going to use it. Wait until there is. You're a damn nation-state.

submitted 16 hours ago • 0 comments

Interesting from @pkrugman.bsky.social . I wonder if it might apply (with somewhat different mechanics) to international divergences as well. We do need "left behind" areas to catch up; it'd help if they stopped electing arsonists just because they are angry all the arson is dragging them back.

submitted 16 hours ago • 0 comments

IIRC, didn't a lot of the early white supremacist infiltration of the military happened when they lowered recruiting standards to meet quotas? This time I guess it'll be on purpose. They are asking opinions on J6 before hiring in some gov roles, so why not soldiers? via @drjlhazelton.bsky.social

submitted 16 hours ago • 0 comments

Relevant to @volts.wtf 's concerns, which I sadly share. via @drjennings.bsky.social

submitted 16 hours ago • 0 comments

At this point I think credit rating agencies are just waiting to see who downgrades the US first and what Trump/Musk does to them. I don't know if I wish I were back doing quant or not (but I like Weird fiction, which I guess answers it). via @tom-phillips.com @drjennings.bsky.social

submitted 17 hours ago • 1 comment

My expectation too. As @t0nyyates.bsky.social notes you can work around it, and markets have yet to let themselves process second-order implications. When somebody hits you for the first time, the fact that the blow glanced is not the most relevant bit of information. via @t0nyyates.bsky.social

submitted 17 hours ago • 0 comments

( The sound of @matt-levine.bsky.social receiving ten thousand emails about defending and/or failing to defend democracy being securities fraud. ) via @jfallows.bsky.social @brianbeutler.bsky.social

submitted 17 hours ago • 0 comments

This is the biggest known unknown right now. No level of disaster will have a political impact (or the political impact you'd like it to have) if the victims don't have a reasonable understanding of (1) it happened, (2) why it happened. via @kevinriggle.bsky.social

submitted 17 hours ago • 1 comment

Not joking: Right now the first question you have to ask of any financial asset is the sensitivity of its valuation to Sam Altman being full of shit. Joking a bit: I call it the asset's ζ in reference to @edzitron.com but if anybody asks mumble something about Riemann. via @drjennings.bsky.social

submitted 17 hours ago • 0 comments

Just tell me you didn't ask a monkey's paw to make your field one of the most urgently and acutely relevant to current events. An epidemiologist did that in 2019 and we're still dealing with the aftermath.

submitted 17 hours ago • 0 comments

I don't know how much of that contributes to the awful state of military history/current military studies in public awareness and its impact on ideas of masculinity (including the whole warrior ideal nonsense) but it probably doesn't help. via @dynamicsymmetry.bsky.social

submitted 17 hours ago • 0 comments

That's a good point. It's the asymptote (hopefully) of the social media phenomenon of meta-ignorance: not just not knowing but not knowing you don't know --- and if in your internalized value hierarchy you are at or near the top, the implication that nobody else does. via @drjlhazelton.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Economists and commentators happy with the DOGE "cost cutting" have entirely forgotten the value of expertise in state capabilities (including geopolitics). Which I guess makes sense if you think every activity and outcome are fungible through market exchanges. via @citizencyborg.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

This. The AI bubble is the wealth-fetishizing apotheosis of it. "Who needs experts in any field if you have cheap employees and LLMs? The only people who count and deserve companesation are billionaires and their piles of GPUs." Self- (and society-) destructive madness via @kirkpams.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

The parsimonious model of Trumpian politics is to reproduce a fantasist pre-Civil War hierarchy; that so many women voted for him still weirds me out. Groups hoping to keep somebody below them underestimate how flat rich white males like the hierarchies below them to be. via @t0nyyates.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

I don't have the money or the hubris to bet against an expert on their area, but FWIW my mental model is gradualist: I don't think it takes a lot (ICE thugs asking for papers here, DOGE'd systems there, etc) to make a Dem quantitatively victory impossible except... 1/ via @robfordmancs.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

On one side, yes, the Pentagon has been a mess for decades. But a look at the Pentagon in 2025 that's not based around the unprecedented behavior of the CiC and whatever the unconstitutional hell is Musk is looking at the plumbing while the house is on fire.... 1/ via @mchorowitz.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

I guess this one goes to the "suggests good product-market fit" column.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

We're testing in real time new pattern recognition instincts within a deluge of piecemeal clues about the malevolently incompetent 24/7 sabotage of maybe the largest infrastructure in history. It's "network admin when everything is on fire," on steroids [or ketamine] via @paulgowder.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

I can't wrap my head around how [meta-]ignorant you have to be to screw, even if temporary, something this big, this basic, this quickly. I swear I take psychic damage just trying to picture the series of individual actions leading to this. via @evodynamics.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

This took me a while to grasp. It's not just the usual tolerance for abusers in positions of political power. It's abuse as the best, only form of political power. But few political analysis institutions are run by people who have suffered abuse via @courtneymilan.com @dynamicsymmetry.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

I'd love to have a close trace of the process that led to this graph being published: every human choice, cultural pattern, organizational process, etc, and compare against past cases. I suspect they haven't gotten worse - they just had less occasion to be... this. via @alanallport.bsky.social

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

I very much like this from Po-Wei Huang et al. Zooming out, the fetish with data as a nonsensical fungible mystical thing, sufficient unto itself, hides how damn well AI works if you have simulators/engines/scalable experimental setups. That is where the frontier of possibility is pushed back.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Geopolitically irrelevant, but Keynes has always been the Arch-Fiend for Musk simp Javier Milei, who has used _keynesian_ as synonym for _Communist_. Millei of course did not influence Musk, but it shows the convergent dynamics of a certain type of predatory nonsense. via @alanallport.bsky.social

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

I don't know nearly enough about Taiwan's options here to hazard what they will do - which is good because I don't see a lot of good ones other than playing for time and hoping the US semi-normalizes before things get physical. by @brianhioe.bsky.social via @llyfrgellbabel.bsky.social

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

They think caring about clothes vis a vis somebody shows you're "weaker" than them, so Zelenskyy "disrespected" Trump by not doing it and a man who dresses with care isn't a "real man" (i.e., powerful enough not to care). It's very stupid but I think it fits (the explanation, not the clothes).

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

This certainly describes what they are doing and why, and I'm sure they will keep doing it, but it's selecting for exactly the wrong thing. LLMs are easy, expertise is hard! Select true experts and teach them to use LLMs, not people who are good at using LLMs to pass as experts for a while.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Interesting from Felix Drinkall et al. Self-plug: I did something vaguely related a while ago: rinesi.com/blog/2021/07... , although these days I'm more interested in the limitations of this information channel (partly for the alpha, partly for the Jackpot, partly just curiosity).

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

As expected. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money, but, tbh, if SEC keeps public markets solid-ish while setting up what @matt-levine.bsky.social calls the fun market then that's probably the least-bad feasible scenario these days. by @mariellamoon.bsky.social

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

There are few... no, I lie, there are a lot of well-known patterns in the IT industry, and "work more hours, we need to innovate this thing out" meaning "my brilliant plans are blowing up so it's obviously your fault you lazy plebs" is one of the most reliable. via @reckless.bsky.social

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

What breaks my mind is that this isn't even authoritarian behavior, this is wilful self-weakening with no conceivable cover. I usually think of Trump as "agrees with Putin" rather than "working for Putin" but I don't know if I can still support the former. via @cerianbond.bsky.social

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Either them or the EU (+Canada?). But, yes, broadly speaking I think China and Russia right now have more opportunities than bandwidth to take advantage of them all. via @drjennings.bsky.social

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

I'm... pleasantly surprised, actually, that they are grasping the weight of the moment? (As a teenage Star Trek TNG fan I got an EU sticker for my printer during the mid-90's for reasons @adamkotsko.bsky.social will surely understand. I wonder if in a couple of years I'll feel moved to get another)

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments