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mark-ungewitter.bsky.social
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H/t @FusionptCapital

submitted 14 minutes ago • 0 comments

In 2016, I argued that post-Volcker monetary policy increasingly employed the wealth effect. By this reckoning, higher-for-longer financing costs are a potential game changer. Today’s 28x multiple seems precarious, as the wealth effect cuts both ways.

submitted 52 minutes ago • 0 comments

Adventures of The OG Quant. Great article about my old pal, Dean LeBaron, who literally opened China to U.S. investors.

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

P&F roundup via 3% box size, my minimum increment for trend following. Upshot? Mixed message warrants caution pending further chart development.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

H/t @FusionptCapital

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Note to self: Initial preponderance of AAII bears is not always constructive. Never a layup, is it? 🏀

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

ITB as well.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

If you need an indicator to tell you sentiment is extreme, it’s not. –Walter Deemer

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Buzzworthy.

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

That yields have broken their secular downtrend doesn’t preclude cyclical reversion. What makes reversion likely? 1) It happened during the inflationary 1970s. 2) Battleships don’t turn on a dime. Any deflationary whiff is likely to spark memories of ZIRP-style repression.

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

There is nothing so disturbing to one's well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich. –Charles P. Kindleberger

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Mid-week humor

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

TLT vaults resistance, targeting 95-ish.

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

Rut roh.

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

FXI global leadership: three down, one to go.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Got China?

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

🤪

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Breakout shakeout. Never a layup, is it?

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

Signing off early. Great weekend, everyone!

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

FXI is replicating its 2008/09 reversal pattern via 10% box size, suggesting a direct move to the low 40s.

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

P&F breakout eyes SPX 6600.

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

XHB change of character.

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

SPX high-level consolidation favors continuation. –KISS Dept.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Global trilemma, anyone? 🤔

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

GLD has reached a trend channel objective while testing multi-year resistance versus SPX. Caution is warranted despite ostensible tailwind from geopolitical uncertainty.

submitted 14 days ago • 1 comment

Great roundup from Jeff deGraaf, the one and only “fully invested bear.” renmac-media.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/02132025+-+J...

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

FXI is developing global leadership. A higher high versus VGK would support the case. A lower low versus SPX would derail it.

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Signing off early. Great weekend, everyone!

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

TLT shakeout surrounding ostensibly hot CPI suggests last point of supply.

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

How undervalued is China? A hypothetical reversion to the HSI/SPX bottom of 1998 would require a near doubling in relative strength.

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

Impressive rebound in U.S. bonds given ostensibly hot CPI. 🤔

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

High-level consolidation so far.

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

CPI on deck.

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

China long-term perspective, basis Hang Seng Index.

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

Hugging the line at month twenty-nine.

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

Signing off early. Great weekend, everyone!

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

GLD big-picture trend channel. H/t @TechCharts

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

Jobs report dead ahead.

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

XHB is raising red flags.

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

Seven questions from the late great Alan Shaw. (Floating question can arise anywhere in sequence.)

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments