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marthagimbel.bsky.social
Sometimes Econ, sometimes rants, sometimes both. Current Budget Lab at Yale, former CEA, JEC, DOL, SF, Indeed.
80 posts 4,113 followers 218 following
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Posts 21 Comments 29

For the record this was not me

submitted 15 hours ago • 2 comments

"There are ways you could do this in a way that makes the government function better, be more efficient, and get better outcomes for the taxpayer. Instead, they’re slashing and burning." @budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social in @fastcompany.com www.fastcompany.com/91283111/dog...

submitted 20 hours ago • 1 comment

Anecdata: my gym owner was planning on opening a third location, but apparently a lot of gym equipment comes from Canada and manufacturers are already raising prices “because tariffs are coming” so the opening may be on hold for now

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

Join @budgetlab.bsky.social for a webinar on Thursday, February 27 at noon EST to discuss TCJA. @neilirwin.bsky.social @axios.com will moderate a discussion with @natasharsarin.bsky.social, George Callas, and Brendan Duke. Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Budget Lab models a “reciprocal” tariff policy where the US matches other countries’ tariff and VAT rates. .. the equivalent of an average per household consumer loss of $2,700-3,400 ..” @budgetlab.bsky.social budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fis...

submitted 3 days ago • 6 comments

I am devastated for the IRS and its employees, who believe so deeply in the importance of a tax system that works for all Americans. It is worth shouting from the rooftops that this purge is going to COST MONEY and make fighting fraud HARDER.

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Here’s some cool analysis my colleagues did on tariffs: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fis... @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

@ericvannostrand.bsky.social & I are in @briefingbook.bsky.social on infrastructure. Last week, @jasonfurman.bsky.social argued that real US infrastructure investment has fallen since the pandemic. Eric & I find however that using BEA’s deflator, real highway spending is up 11% since 2019. 1/11

submitted 4 days ago • 4 comments

Hesitant to disagree with Jesse, who is much smarter than me, but 200K (to the degree it materializes in one month) is one mildly negative month on NFP and 0.1-0.2pp on the unemployment rate am open to evidence that the contractor effect is very large, and 2nd order effects could matter a lot

submitted 4 days ago • 12 comments

Nothing that we have seen so far would imply macroeconomic effects anywhere close to this magnitude:

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Ok this is making the rounds and tbc the scale of what is happening to the federal workforce and with impoundment is unprecedented - but I think we need to be really careful about assuming this is going to all hit at once in March or that we know the size of the impact 1/

submitted 4 days ago • 26 comments

@budgetlab.bsky.social just published an analysis of an illustrative "reciprocal" US tariff policy that matches foreign tariff & VAT rates on a commodity-by-commodity basis. This excludes currency & trade policy responses but gives a lower-bound impact of such a policy if broadly implemented. 1/9

submitted 4 days ago • 5 comments

This was a Napoleon III joke and it somehow disintegrated quickly

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Currently googling “Donald Trump nephew” to find out who’s going to be ruling us in like fifty years

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

Great reporting from @marychilds.bsky.social about @hamiltonproject.org's federal outlay tracker. Give a listen! Only quibble is that superstars Noadia Steinmetz-Silber + Riki Matsumoto didn't get their deserved shout-out. So I shout here. www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

I am hiring a predoc at MIT to start this summer! We will work on various topics in labor economics - unions, minimum wages, imperfect competition, etc. Please apply and share ! #predoc @mitiwer.bsky.social #EconSky apply.interfolio.com/163492

submitted 9 days ago • 3 comments

With the turmoil in the federal government, some #econ_RA have found themselves without employment. Please tag #econ_RA with any immediate openings available for these bright young folks.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Give our friends @hamiltonproject.org a follow to get critical U.S. economic research in your feed 👇

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Staying safe is not a Philly value, don’t you wish that on us

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Is Trump trying to scare investors out of the US Treasury market?

submitted 13 days ago • 4 comments

Last time Trump levied similar steel tariffs, it led to an increase of~ 1,000 jobs in steel production -- but 75,000 *fewer* manufacturing jobs in downstream firms where steel or aluminum are an input into production. econofact.org/steel-tariff...

submitted 13 days ago • 62 comments