mathdemocrat.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

"Mr. Trump’s figures are at least double, if not several times larger, that of official estimates of trade deficits, the gap between how much a country imports and exports with another, not a measure of that country “losing” money."

submitted 3 hours ago • 1 comment

"False. Tariffs imposed on imports of foreign goods do not mean another country is paying the bill. The costs are largely passed on to American companies and consumers, as a vast body of research has shown"

submitted 3 hours ago • 0 comments

"The United States government collected $215 million in customs and excise taxes on April 7, about a tenth of Mr. Trump’s purported number. Last week, before that rate went into effect, the United States collected $160 million to $212 million a day in customs and excise taxes."

submitted 3 hours ago • 0 comments

"Although Mr. Trump abruptly announced on Wednesday that he would pause steep reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, a 10 percent “base line” tariff remains in place for most imports. Here’s a guide to some of his most cited claims:" www.nytimes.com/article/trum...

submitted 3 hours ago • 0 comments

"“The timing and scale of the call option purchases would suggest that an official of the Administration, or perhaps the President himself, provided friends or associates with a heads up that the announcement was happening,” Ms. Waters wrote." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/b...

submitted 3 hours ago • 1 comment

This could happen sooner than ten weeks. It's hard to imagine he won't keep at least a 10% tariff on most countries. What happens in 90 days? Outside of technology, other goods from China will affect the prices consumers pay for goods. There is no way inflation doesn't increase because of this.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

Then businesses will lower production. Then hours will be cut and then job losses will come. There's no way to actually come up with the most intelligent tariffs possible (it's all stupid) in negotiations for 75-90 countries in 90 days. Businesses can't plan in this environment.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

That tariffed inventory will have to be priced higher or companies will see a reduction in profits at best and a loss at worst. Consumers will buy less of that more expensive inventory, but this will take time. Then we will have to see data showing consumer spending did actually decline.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

The reason I am setting it at ten weeks when we see a significant reduction in consumer spending is because current inventory that consumers are buying are mostly not tariffed. So, consumers will have to buy up current inventory, then businesses will buy tariffed inventory.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

But once we see more than terrible consumer confidence and we see data showing something has actually taken place that's negative, then even big Trumper investors won't be able to deny reality. That's when everything will go to Hell.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

They are saying sentiment won't manifest into anything. So they'll say something like you can't talk yourself into a recession. And big investors love no regulation and lower taxes and are ignoring everything that tells us a recession is coming.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

I suspect that within ten weeks we will see consumer spending decrease. Once that data comes out showing a reduction in consumer spending, then everything will turn negative. Right now, despite facts and logic, some are trying to argue there's a healthy economy outside of this.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

It's, therefore, impossible to reasonably argue that this was all part of a deliberate plan that was thought out beforehand. Again, once we see negative data on something other than sentiment, then dominos will fall relentlessly, inexorably and the economy will falter.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

There won't be a resurgence in manufacturing coming out of this. It isn't going to decrease our budget deficit in any meaningful way that I can see. In fact, as inflation causes a pullback in consumer spending, it's likely to increase the deficit. It won't do anything good for the national debt.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

Caving repeatedly shows weakness and he has now announced to other nations his vulnerability. It's undeniable at this point that there will be truly nothing positive that the United States will have gained from this. None of the supposed goals will be realized. Not one.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

He keeps caving because of the impact on the economy, but ultimately all of it will affect the economy. This also tells those he is negotiating with that they have great leverage over him when he was trying to project strength.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

The auto sector still has the tariff, steel and aluminum are still tariffed, besides certain technology based goods, Chinese goods are tariffed, every nation besides China has a 10% tariff, and this is only a pause for 90 days.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

What is the point of Trump's tariff regime when he excludes anything that will harm consumers, consumer spending, and the economy generally? If he keeps excluding goods that greatly impact consumer spending, then nothing important will be tariffed. This is a completely incoherent policy.

submitted 8 hours ago • 1 comment

Frequently the rate of growth of the GDP is revised and when the economy has started to slide, then that revision is down. We are in the beginning of the second quarter. There is a good chance that the GDP shrank in the first quarter. This could be the second consecutive quarter of negative growth.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

Many of you may understand that we normally don't declare that we are in a recession until well after it started. The standard definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth or contraction in the gross domestic product, the sum total value of all goods and services.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

Former Governor Jon Corzine really does understand markets and the economy. He was a great choice for a guest for the Bulwark. He said that he believes the probability that we will have a recession is North of 75% and that we might even be there now.

submitted 8 hours ago • 0 comments

Trump was supposed to be doing this for manufacturing technology to come back to the US. He caved on the technology tariffs. He just looks stupid and it's more and more obvious to everyone that he has never had a plan. The rest of the tariffs remain.

submitted 16 hours ago • 0 comments

Greg Abbott is delaying our election because he’s a wuss. He knows my district stands unapologetically against him and Trump’s brainless policies that are making our country weaker by the day. So yeah, he should be worried. I’m running for Congress to give Trump hell!

submitted 20 hours ago • 17 comments

Donald Trump has made himself—and by extension, us—the laughing stock of the world.

submitted 1 day ago • 355 comments

Although my degrees are in mathematics, I did take several more classes as an undergrad in economics than were required because of interest. I am hopeful that it helps me to know who to listen to and that it helps me to reject fringe people with fringe views.

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

"She [Karoline Leavitt] responded, 'I think there is a great optimism in the economy and great reason for optimism for the American people. A lot of reason for people to feel optimistic.'" www.newsweek.com/trump-admin-... A lot of confidence when it's the 2nd lowest reading since 1953? Lie.

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

"Larry Fink, CEO of the investment firm BlackRock, told CNBC that the U.S. economy is on the cusp of a downturn, if not already there. 'I think we’re very close, if not in, a recession now,' Fink said."

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

The dollar has slumped, meaning your money isn't going as far as it was. The increase in bond yields indicates a lack of confidence in Donald Trump & his admin. Normally when the markets tumble, investors seek security and go to bonds. That the market went down without people going to bonds is bad.

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

"said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. 'Only 18% say it is doing a ‘good job.’”

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

apnews.com/article/cons... "'Interestingly, President Trump appears to be getting much of the blame for much of the deterioration in sentiment with 67% of respondents saying the government is doing a ‘poor job’ on fighting inflation and unemployment,' "

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

So on the one hand, we have (1) Netanyahu is evil (2) Israel's military acts have led to tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians being killed (3) standard of living in Gaza is awful On the other hand (1) Oct 7th made 30,000 Hamas terrorists near Gaza unacceptable (2) Hamas use of human shields

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

How do you get rid of the 20,000 to 30,000 Hamas terrorists near Gaza? Because after October 7th, it's understandable that Israel couldn't allow this number of Hamas terrorists. How do they get rid of that amount of Hamas terrorists which was a necessity after October 7th?

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

When Israel illegally occupied the West Bank and Gaza, they were morally and ethically obligated to provide a good standard of living for the Palestinians who live there. Netanyahu has turned American opinion against Israel.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

news.gallup.com/poll/657404/... I understand after Oct 7th, below wasn't acceptable "How many Hamas fighters are in Gaza? HAMAS had 20,000 to 30,000 fighters before October 2023. Israeli press estimates that 16,000 to 18,000 fighters remain." But still this didn't have a military solution.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

#GVerse via @calltoactivism.bsky.social "Stephanie Ruhle is one of the only voices in the media who tells it like it is and always speaks truth to power. I wish we had another 100 like her. Watch this video. It’s 100% truth."

submitted 1 day ago • 73 comments

submitted 1 day ago • 237 comments

🐈‍⬛Happy Caturday🐈‍⬛ 🦋Meet and Greet 🦋 Let’s see those pet pics today Relax, reflect, and recharge. Three keys to unlock a beautiful Saturday Don’t forget tonight’s MegaBoost party at 8pm est Let the weekend shenanigans begin 😉 Remember We WILL be okay Love Foxy

submitted 1 day ago • 549 comments

Wow! Gorgeous!

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Tourism from Canada is down 70%. A motel owner who normally gets a lot of business from Canadian tourists said he has lost a lot of their business because of Trump's tariffs. He voted for Trump and he doesn't regret it even though it has hurt his business. So completely MAGA! Even looks MAGA.

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

Fareed Zakaria, "This may be the biggest economic policy-making error of my lifetime."

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

"'This decline was pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation,' said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu."

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

www.reuters.com/markets/us/u... "US consumer sentiment, inflation expectations deteriorate sharply in April The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers on Friday said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 this month"

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments