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mckonomy.bsky.social
International economics and policy for Bloomberg. And some snark Usually 35,000 feet above somewhere ✈️
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The world sucks these days. But baseball...is back!

ChatGPT weighs in on the "Mar-a-Lago Accord"

Mar-a-Lago Accord, anyone?

Same week a year ago looks like a one-off random drop. The prior week was 211 and the following week 213. So not really "quite a bit higher" this year. Federal layoffs haven't hit yet. Unadjusted claims fell in all of the largest states by federal employment (except tiny rise in DC).

Bessent says on @bloombergtv.bsky.social that revaluing US gold holdings "is not what I had in mind" when he talked about monetizing the US balance sheet for a sovereign wealth fund.

I see we're chasing $5,000 squirrels today. 🤦‍♂️

I think I like the phrase @chrismurphyct.bsky.social used: pathetic and weak.

Facts: Ukraine did not start the war with Russia EU nations have provided as much or more support than the US for Ukraine Zelensky is much more popular in Ukraine than Trump is in the US Putin is a war criminal, the ICJ says

Actually, this is incorrect. Only about 15% of the total (non-military) federal workforce is in the Washington region.

Cannot make this stuff up: www.wsj.com/health/bird-...

if you were accidentally fired while transporting a nuclear warhead and currently need a place to stay with said warhead please know that i have a sizable backyard and an abiding desire to be a nuclear power

Buy this magazine or we'll shoot this dog: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

John Marshall might disagree

Department of Not-Good-News: National Association of Homebuilders housing market index falls to 42, lowest since September. Prospective buyer traffic at 29 is the lowest since October. NAHB cites mortgage rates and prospective tariffs as reasons for the pessimism.

Understatement of the year

One last SNL50 observation: half a century of making fun of presidents, Republican and Democrat, but not one political sketch or memory tonight.

In defense of Lorne Michaels: the SNL50 show wasn't very good. Some really funny bits, many not. But 50 years! Humor has changed, the audience is different. The world is different. Impossible to capture it all. A little bit for everyone is not enough for anyone.

Am I wrong to think the future of the Constitution will depend on the US District Court and Appeals Court lotteries for which judges hear a case?

It appears we have some leftovers. I'm going to start marketing Feb 16 as the real day to give flowers..

Here is the clip from ‘Waterloo’ which ends with the same line Trump used this morning - it is speech in which Napoleon asserts, “I did not usurp the crown,” because he picked it out of the gutter and the people put it on his head:

Unacceptable

If someone had told me 50 years ago that the cast of Saturday Night Live was going to ring the opening bell at the NYSE, I would have asked what they were smoking (and could I have some).

#RejectedCandyHearts

👏👏👏 Excellent news

Unfortunately for me, that was before you were born... 😂 But I never got to be a podcast star! Here's your chance to come back...

Now, the reason I wrote Trump *says* he will impose reciprocal tariffs is that what he actually did is tell Commerce and USTR to come up with ways to level trade costs between the US and other countries. That could mean anything, or nothing. The non-tariff stuff is interesting because in theory,

Trump *says* he will impose reciprocal tariffs based on all trade barriers a country has - tariffs, subsidies, regulations, taxes. That's a massive expansion of the trade war and raises a massive question: what's the off-ramp? Perhaps immediate tariff concessions by other countries would have 1/2

Details still lacking, but Trump says Commerce-Secretary-to-be Howard Lutnick will come up with the "equivalent tariff" numbers. VAT, non-trade barriers will be counted as tariffs. Steel and aluminum are "over and above" these tariffs, as are cars, chips, and pharma. It gets broader and broader.

To implement reciprocal tariffs quickly, Trump may use IEEPA or Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (which allows the president to impose tariffs on countries that "discriminate" in their trade policies). The Tariff Act of 1930 has another name. Does anyone want to guess what most people call it?

Lucky us! It's make-America-...something... day, it seems

Friday: *TRUMP: CONFERENCE ON RECIPROCAL TARIFFS MONDAY OR TUESDAY Monday: *TRUMP: RECIPROCAL TARIFFS OVER NEXT TWO DAYS Tuesday: *ASKED IF DOING RECIPROCAL TARIFFS WEDS, TRUMP SAYS `WE'LL SEE' Today: *Trump reciprocal tariffs could come by Thursday, White House says The new infrastructure week?

Powell: US debt path unsustainable. We need the economy to grow faster than the debt for 20 years. The things that need to be done can only be done with bipartisan cooperation.

Powell: "We have a pretty simple business model. We're like a community bank. But with a big balance sheet."

Asked if he is a Deadhead, Powell says "I'll own up to that."

A Grateful Dead reference in the Powell hearing!

Powell says "it's time to move" on the supplementary leverage ratio. Lowering requirements would boost liquidity.

Powell says the Fed did just fine regulating without a Vice Chair for Supervision. The position creates "volatility" because it swings between political parties, he says. Up to Congress whether they want to keep or get rid of the position.

I posted too fast (who among us...) and have tagged a Bluesky Kevin Hassett who is not the NEC chair. My apologies to him. And I urge the NEC Kevin to join Bluesky forthwith.

He has not, as far as I know

Powell stands by his commitment not to resign if asked. What he's never said is whether he's referring to his position as Chair, or as a governor, or both...

Fed's Powell says they've had no contact with DOGE but declines comment on whether they would let Muskies in the door if they showed up.

NEC's @kevinhassett.bsky.social says on Bloomberg the #Fed "has made a lot of mistakes" and Fed officials put out a story that inflation was a supply side problem "to cover their tracks." He says Democrats on the Fed "are willing to be partisan," citing their decision to raise rates in 2016.

Egg prices up 15.2% in January. CEA Chair @kevinhassett.bsky.social says on Bloomberg TV it's because "Joe Biden killed 130 million chickens." Kevin, Kevin, Kevin.... no