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mijrahman.bsky.social
Managing Director, Europe and co-head of London office, Eurasia Group. Formerly HM Treasury and European Commission. Senior Research Fellow, LSE European Institute. ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth https://www.eurasiagroup.net
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If "Zelenskyy refuses to sign the (minerals) deal, he was warned during the talks with Kellogg that Ukraine could lose access to Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system, which provides crucial connectivity to the Ukrainian military" www.theguardian.com/world/2025/f...

Big news from Reuters - if true

Sanna Marin throwing some impressive shade here: ”To start, Europe must rid itself of the dangerous illusion that it is weak—and stop acting like it. There is no trade-off between investing in the defence of Europe as a whole and investing in the defence of Ukraine—they are one and the same.”

Macron gave a surprisingly upbeat commentary on the Trump-Russia-Ukraine crisis in an 80 minute live video conversation with the French public tonight. He said the “uncertainty” generated by Trump could, in the end, be “good for Ukraine and good for Europe” but needed to be “structured” properly. 1/

Macron gave a surprisingly upbeat commentary on the Trump-Russia-Ukraine crisis in an 80 minute live video conversation with the French public tonight. He said the “uncertainty” generated by Trump could, in the end, be “good for Ukraine and good for Europe” but needed to be “structured” properly. 1/

Yup

Yup

"Russia used the first round of talks with the US over ending the war in Ukraine to demand the withdrawal of Nato forces from the alliance’s eastern flank, triggering concern in European capitals that the Trump administration could acquiesce to seal a peace deal." www.ft.com/content/ac1d...

It's going to get a lot, lot worse folks US objects to calling out ‘Russian aggression’ in G7 statement on Ukraine. Trump administration splits with allies on holding Moscow responsible for war www.ft.com/content/7380...

‼️🇫🇷🇬🇧 France's Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad has just confirmed on TV that Macron will go to Washington to see trump early next week. Still not clear whether this will be a joint meeting with Starmer but the likelihood is that they will see him separately

🇪🇺

NEW: A Franco-British peacekeeping proposal for Ukraine revolves around a “reassurance force” that would rely on massive western air power, and small troop deployments around key sites such as ports and nuclear plants, officials told @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/6dc1...

‼️🇫🇷🇬🇧 Apparently Macron is going to Washington next week to speak to Trump. Not clear if it will be with Starmer or separately

I'll be on the Radio 4's World Tonight at 22.10 talking about the EU's plans to support Ukraine, influence the Saudi US/Russia process and deal with the fallout from Trump's recent comments against Zelensky. Tune in!

This was first discussed back in Nov, after Trump won the US election, for Ukraine. Then it waned. Now it's making a comeback. Unlikely to be the EU's first line of fiscal attack www.ft.com/content/f28b...

🇪🇺

Note, fwiw, Zelensky's trust rating actually went up in the most recent survey, to 57%. Another poll has him as the person who would get the most votes in a presidential election (though it also suggested a run-off) There is no evidence base for Trump's 4% approval remark

Good. And unsurprising France and Britain are drawing up plans to create a “reassurance force” that would rely on western air power, backed by the US, to enforce any ceasefire deal in Ukraine and deter potential Russian aggression. www.ft.com/content/6dc1...

Time for 🇪🇺

The Europeans have spent more than the US on Ukraine

What is Putin, if Zelensky is a dictator without elections?

What is Putin, if Zelensky is a dictator without elections?

President Emmanuel Macron will host another mini-summit on Ukraine at the Elysée Palace today for countries – ranging from Canada to Luxembourg – to consider how America’s allies should respond to Donald Trump’s unilateral negotiations with Moscow. 1/

President Emmanuel Macron will host another mini-summit on Ukraine at the Elysée Palace today for countries – ranging from Canada to Luxembourg – to consider how America’s allies should respond to Donald Trump’s unilateral negotiations with Moscow. 1/

Russia has wanted talks with the US on an equal basis & without Europe or Ukraine for a long time. So beyond any substantive concessions in the actual talks, the fact they're going to continue in this format is an important win for Putin & strategic setback for Ukraine & Europe

In presser Trump now pushing on Ukrainian elections, blaming Zelensky for the war and claiming that his popularity is at 4% (no idea where this number is coming from). Effectively Kremlin talking points

In presser Trump now pushing on Ukrainian elections, blaming Zelensky for the war and claiming that his popularity is at 4% (no idea where this number is coming from). Effectively Kremlin talking points

We are in “Ukraine being thrown under the bus” territory. I hope I'm wrong. I don't wish to be alarmist. But the readout from today's US/Russia talks in Riyadh and the trajectory they imply for Ukraine, and for Europe, is deeply, deeply worrying

We are in “Ukraine being thrown under the bus” territory. I hope I'm wrong. I don't wish to be alarmist. But the readout from today's US/Russia talks in Riyadh and the trajectory they imply for Ukraine, and for Europe, is deeply, deeply worrying

The Europeans need to work up a plan with Ukraine to present to Trump. And fast. Otherwise a US/Russia deal on Ukraine - and much else besides - is going to be done over their heads. Now isn't the time to litigate the details of fiscal easing for defence. Now is the time to act

The Europeans need to work up a plan with Ukraine to present to Trump. And fast. Otherwise a US/Russia deal on Ukraine - and much else besides - is going to be done over their heads. Now isn't the time to litigate the details of fiscal easing for defence. Now is the time to act

how germans feel aboout deploying their troops as peacekeeping forces in ukraine 49% approve 44% oppose -forsa

“We need somebody who says OK guys we’re in deep shit” Theo Francken told @financialtimes.com “We’re in big problems & we need to take really big steps ahead” Consolidate or die, says Belgium’s defence min w crack Belgian crew @lauramdubois.ft.com & @bmoens.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/1b60...

Hard to articulate analytically how bad the current trajectory seems to be for Ukraine - and Europe - based on the outcome and readout from today's US/Russia talks in Saudi

Hard to articulate analytically how bad the current trajectory seems to be for Ukraine - and Europe - based on the outcome and readout from today's US/Russia talks in Saudi

Rubio: “No one is being sidelined here.” Then WTF is Ukraine and Europe? www.ft.com/content/b427...

Few concrete results were expected from Paris, it was organised so quickly. Expectations now running high for an additional high-level emergency meeting on/around 24 Feb in Kyiv, hosted by the Ukrainian Govt. At least 13 European leaders expected to attend & senior EU officials

Few concrete results were expected from Paris, it was organised so quickly. Expectations now running high for an additional high-level emergency meeting on/around 24 Feb in Kyiv, hosted by the Ukrainian Govt. At least 13 European leaders expected to attend & senior EU officials