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mikefischerwx.bsky.social
Assistant Professor at the University of Miami. Usually discussing hurricanes.
23 posts 1,631 followers 257 following
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Thank you to UAH for the opportunity and hospitality during my visit. I had a great time talking about hurricanes and machine learning with the folks there. And a special thanks to @tcblers.bsky.social for the invitation and a great time in Huntsville!

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Here's my annual blog post about the NOAA National Hurricane Center's updated "cone of uncertainty". Hopefully there are some tidbits in there that are new to you! Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/03/2025...

submitted 23 days ago • 3 comments

Probationary employees across @NOAA and the @NWS are being terminated today, including those in mission-essential roles. My own wife is among them, essential to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's 24/7 critical mission of seismic monitoring and tsunami prediction to protect the public.

submitted 31 days ago • 21 comments

Uh oh. Zelia is explosively intensifying at this point. The enclosed pink ring in 36 GHz imagery is typically a signal only seen in extremely intense TCs or those about to be extremely intense.

submitted 46 days ago • 0 comments

Off the northwest coast of Australia, Cyclone Zelia appears to be intensifying quite quickly. Some of the hurricane guidance brings the system up to the equivalent of category-5 intensity before landfall. Hopefully that’s overly aggressive.

submitted 46 days ago • 1 comment

Just feel like I’m stuck in a nightmare that I’m not waking up from. What was egregious yesterday is tame today. When will it stop?

submitted 54 days ago • 0 comments

"Are rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones associated with unique vortex and convective characteristics?" Well, you can find out more here: doi.org/10.1175/MWR-... I'll summarize in the thread below.

submitted 107 days ago • 2 comments

Xiaomin is an excellent scientist and friend of mine. If you’re interested in atmospheric science and grad school, here’s another great opportunity to explore.

submitted 108 days ago • 1 comment

The Philippines have now been hit by four typhoons in the span of just 10 days. Can't say I recall ever seeing this before.

submitted 133 days ago • 71 comments

23C IR temp in the eye of Typhoon Man-Yi is very impressive! An extremely powerful typhoon approaching The Philippines.

submitted 135 days ago • 0 comments

Invest 99L appears poised to become a significant TC if it manages to avoid significant land interaction with Honduras/Nicaragua. The environment looks very favorable for intensification and the storm structure has seemingly continued to exceed short term model expectations.

submitted 138 days ago • 1 comment

Interesting low/trough near 70W and 25N this morning. Waters are still pretty warm in this area and there's ongoing deep convection with lightning (yellow markers). The disturbance is currently located on a sharp gradient of vertical wind shear.

submitted 141 days ago • 0 comments

This chart really highlights how strange this season has been with an explosive beginning, a quiet mid-section, and an active ending. Not every year follows the climatological curve! bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2024/11/rafa... #HurricaneSeason @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social

submitted 143 days ago • 5 comments

Hurricane Rafael has an interesting satellite appearance, with the coldest IR brightness temperatures on the upshear side of the storm. That’s usually a pattern we see with intensifying storms (fig. is from my dissertation), however, guidance suggests we will see a period of weakening soon. Hmm…

submitted 143 days ago • 0 comments

With model guidance suggesting the potential for another TC in the Caribbean in 1-2 weeks, I’m wondering if the Atlantic this year may actually reach NOAA’s “extremely active” definition of approximately 160 ACE units. Only 15 units to go. What a weird season.

submitted 159 days ago • 1 comment

Very curious to see what comes of Invest 94L. Looks very close to official TC status, but it’s unclear how much this system will intensify (if at all). Models are in better agreement of a weak/moderate tropical storm, outside of the GFS, which has done very poor with TC genesis forecasts this year.

submitted 529 days ago • 0 comments

Amazing GMI overpass of Hurricane Franklin showing a secondary eyewall forming. That spiral structure is mesmerizing!

submitted 580 days ago • 0 comments

Just two intensifying tropical cyclones in the western part of the Atlantic in an El Niño year. 2023 things.

submitted 581 days ago • 0 comments