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musicalchairs.bsky.social
Ugly graphs, insights and outbursts. NZ.
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Since we are only a few weeks away from frenzied discussions about budget debts and surpluses, it is worth remembering that NZ Govt has more financial assets (shares, equity, loans owed) than debt. This is very, very rare for a country with a trade (current acct) deficit [🧵1/n]

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

A depressing read, but if you live and work (and especially if you also vote) in New Zealand you should know what's going on.

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Quick weekly jobs 🧵since it's Thursday. NZ job growth averaged a little over 2% per year from 2010 to 2023. We had a little blip in 2020 but got 'back on track' quickly. Then 2024 happened. We are around 100,000 jobs below where we would have been if we'd stayed on trend. [1/n]

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

Lol. Link to thread in ALT text.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Pesky reminder that one-third of the value of NZ non-financial businesses is basically the land they own. If land prices dropped 20%, we would wipe about $140bn off the value of NZ businesses. Who cares? [1/n]

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Here's how real weekly rents (2024 prices) have tracked a rough measure of housing supply adequacy (people per dwelling). It would take an *absolutely huge* house-building programme to sustainably reduce rents in real terms. Don't even get me started on house prices (image 2).

submitted 3 days ago • 3 comments

We added 254,200 dwellings between 2017 and 2024 and our population increased by 474,100. So, we 'oversupplied' enough to reduce occupancy rates from 2.62 to 2.53 people per dwelling. House prices went up 11% and rents by 1% in real terms (inflation adjusted) 🤔 www.rnz.co.nz/news/busines...

submitted 3 days ago • 3 comments

Hudson nailing it here... Tariffs are a regressive tax on consumers with the clear aim of enabling more $ to go to the donor class. Quote and link in ALT text.

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Fascinating question. What does NZ 'have to show' for the debt built up during C*VID? Let's have a look... [1/n]

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

This is fascinating if you are interested in how the plumbing of the global finance system works, how much risk is stacked up precariously, and, of course, how much economists don't know about how all of this works.

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Nice to see the commentariat catching up with reality... only a few months behind. To be fair, they don't have my massive team of one very part-time analyst, a six-year old computer, and an overpriced Office 365 subscription.

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

Quick Dec 24 balance sheet update. Banks still owe the rest of us around $420bn in lovely NZ dollars (net). The cash in our bank accounts is an asset for us, but a liability (debt) for the banks. Don't try and take it out all at once! 😨 [🧵 1/n]

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment