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musiciantom.bsky.social
Degrees in both Philosophy and Physics with a past passion for long distance cycling and intermittent bouts of music composition.
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Additionally to last post, a wildcard coalition of Linke+Greens+SPD are only 6% away from being viable though historically Greens poll higher than their eventual vote thence the election may have come too early for this possiblity.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Some interesting trends in recent German polls, shortly before the German election. Die Linke is polling >5% and above the Wagenknecht party, firs time in a while. SPD+CDU coalition looks viable but CDU support has be dwindling whilst AfD support has been rising thus may still need Greens.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Confirmed, no US boots on Ukranian soil, nor article 5 for truly robust security guarentees. 5% GDP remains insisted upon, various NATO members are far from this position, no clear consequences laid out when falling short. Economic stimulus through increased arms production?

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Note my post from yesterday, 2025 is likely to see a recession.

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Given the metrics and timeline given to ChatGPT the estimation of a recession in 2025 is given as 75-85%. Where are the alarm bells? @economist.com @garyseconomics.bsky.social

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Auschwitz was at the end of a long process. It did not start from gas chambers. This hatred was gradually developed by humans. From ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder. Auschwitz took time.

submitted 26 days ago • 1093 comments

"According to a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in 2018, about 50% of the hired crop farmworkers in the United States were undocumented immigrants." Working undocumented migrants will be the easiest to deport. An artificial dust bowl will result leading to epic inflation.

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

I asked Deepseek to create a set of questions for 'my friend' (chatgpt) to test whether they are an LLM or a human. I had prior told chatgpt to not make it obvious in their answers, though to answer honnestly. Here were the answers, Deepseek thought that GPT was human. #deepseek #chatgpt

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

We need to support Ukraine who will likely need to reduce its age of conscription. Forget not that will the global economy faulting, as well as Trump's love for pumping oil, a crash in the oil price will wreck the Russian economy back to the 1990s with great haste.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

Trump may intentionally tank the dollar to boost manufacturing and exports but that assumes demand which is premised by a global economy in reasonable stead.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

@luisaneubauer.bsky.social Funnily enough a rise in extremism is the expected response to climate change, rather than a clear eyed admittance of the truth. This will worsen as food production will be eroded in the coming decades driving up inflation.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

When considering the vast sums involved in deportation, as well as the tax cuts for his financiers, tax rises on the middle class alone will not suffice. Trump is likely to borrow. Given the US position weakening the dollar may be enough to drive the fragile global economy into recession.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

As allies of the US, or any other ally in fact, how far would they have to stray in order for us to question their allegiance, to minimize trade or to even sanction them? This is long term view but preparation is key and to know what red lines would need to be crossed such as media control.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

Food price inflation is a matter on the health of the global economy, the plight of the poorest, and geopolitical stablity. Don't forget, the upheavels of the 2010s across n Africa/middle east was driven by food price inflation. "Domestic food price inflation remains high in low-income countries."

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

Can Trump do a Liz Truss? Tax cuts in the UK resulted in increased government borrowing and the devaluation of pound sterling. Given it is the dominant global currency just how far could Trump's policies on spending and taxation effect the valuation of the US dollar.

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

Finally some sense is coming to forecasting given evidence for dropping demand and the recent substantial inversion in US short/long term bond interest rates. The question is, how deep will markets eventually crash and what will be the trigger? Comercial real estate? dot com part 2? @economist.com

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments