mwhanna.crisisgroup.org - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Since the fall of Assad, U.S. and western policy on Syria’s transition has mostly been about sitting back and hoping for the best. Needless to say, there are problems with that approach. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

submitted 5 hours ago • 0 comments

As Trump effectively seeks to rewrite terms of Gaza ceasefire deal, worth remembering that his transition team was effectively part of negotiations to conclude it in January. If Trump craters that deal now another round of ruinous fighting is next, which may doom Gazans and the remaining hostages.

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

Sharaa in Cairo for an Arab League summit is still hard to process. I imagine there will also be quite a few discussions on Syria’s transition alongside the formal talks about an Arab plan for Gaza.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

“Secretary of State Marco Rubio in recent weeks signed a waiver to exempt Ukraine from the ban Trump imposed on foreign assistance, but senior State Department official Peter Marocco hasn’t sent a required letter to the Pentagon to allow the aid to flow to Kyiv” www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Key members of Syria’s interim government are under UN sanctions, prolonging the country’s humanitarian crisis. For @crisisgroup.org, @jeromed.bsky.social @mayaungar.bsky.social & I explain why the UN Security Council should consider starting the delisting process www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Trump’s approach to the Gaza ceasefire deadlock will be instructive and early signs are predictably bad. Accepting unilateral Israeli moves to back out of previously-agreed commitments coupled with coercion will dispel any notion of the U.S. as invested in the ceasefire deal they endorsed.

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments

Can and should HTS be delisted by the UNSC? The continued listing of HTS poses real challenges to Syria's reconstruction, but there are ways to delist the group within a political process focused on security. see www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-... @crisisgroup.org

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

NEW COMMENTARY | U.S. Aid Cuts Make Famine More Likely and Easier to Hide The Trump administration’s 90-day hold on most U.S. foreign aid may result in more and deadlier famines, with greater impunity for parties using starvation as a weapon of war. www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

One clear and immediate effect of Trump’s Gaza comments has been to legitimate this kind of discourse for people who may have previously kept their murderous musings to themselves.

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Now from me @crisisgroup.org: What the hell just happened at the UN? www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Reminder that the Arms Export Control Act limits the use of US-origin weapons to “legitimate self-defense.” Therefore it ought to matter that Israel is using US-supplied warplanes in this manner. But of course the admin is disregarding US law abroad and at home. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/w...

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

As this older generation of US diplomats passes, it is hard to see who among the current crop will be viewed in the same way. That’s perhaps less to do with the individuals involved than with the decline of the State Department as an institution. www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2...

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

What’s that you said?!? Bust up, shakedown, divorce? 🤔 🎧 to @richardatwood.bsky.social @olyaoliker.bsky.social @stevepomper.bsky.social on a stunning showdown in transatlantic relations & Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European democracy at Munich. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

And then Trump just backs down. This whole episode has at least been instructive, if also disturbing. With No Buy-in From Egypt or Jordan, Trump Appears to Back Away From His Gaza Plan www.nytimes.com/2025/02/21/u...

submitted 12 days ago • 2 comments

My latest in @justsecurity.org, examining the legal and policy implications of possible US military action in Mexico. www.justsecurity.org/107850/us-mi...

submitted 14 days ago • 1 comment

Read @crisisgroup.org's new report on Haiti. Based in @diegodarin.bsky.social's extensive fieldwork, it examines how political infighting in the transitional gvt has gotten on the way of reducing violence, safe elections and an inclusive constitutional reform. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

submitted 15 days ago • 1 comment

Join us next week for what promises to be a fascinating conversation!

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Ukraine's European backers must decide, collectively & quickly, what they are willing & able to do with no US backing, in Ukraine & for themselves. Relatedly, they should ask who, in & outside the region, they can work with. With luck, US engagement will continue. But trusting luck isn't a strategy.

submitted 15 days ago • 1 comment

Federalism is, I guess, a very malleable concept.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

A first attempt to grapple with Biden’s approach to the Gaza war by a senior administration official. I think the critical errors came earlier, at the outset, when the U.S. effectively lent its open-ended support without any assurances about where the military campaign was headed.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Missed this morning's event on the future of Gaza? Catch the recording of @dahliasc.bsky.social and @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org‬ in conversation with Century International director @tcambanis.bsky.social

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

“Other than China’s cultural revolution, history offers few parallels to the so-called Department of Government Efficiency’s assault on the state.” on.ft.com/4gH4GoU Elon Musk’s wrecking ball

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

It is widely agreed that the President does not have the authority to unilaterally impound federal funds. @seharrison7.bsky.social analyzes potential Impoundment Control Act challenges to Donald Trump's executive actions. www.justsecurity.org/107885/trump...

submitted 21 days ago • 7 comments

Answer is clearly both, although I would frame this slightly differently. It wasn’t that US support for Israel enhanced US power, but that the war and its spillover forced the US to act in certain ways that the region appreciated. Posture, attention, high-level face time, defense cooperation,etc.

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

Trump may have stumbled into this, but his repeated insistence may now generate a crisis in US-Egypt relations. Sis’s sensitivities, on display here, are testament to how destabilizing transfer would be for Egypt and for Sisi himself.

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

'For Egypt & Jordan, transferring Gazans [is] "a red line. They would be effectively aiding and abetting the death of the Palestinian national movement,” says @mwhanna.bsky.social. “Islamists and all regime opponents” in Egypt and elsewhere in the region “would make hay” with it.' bit.ly/40X5FLR

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Includes my thoughts on why this is a red line for both Egypt and Jordan. on.ft.com/4gwdSfP Jordan’s king to meet Donald Trump in push against Gaza takeover plan

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Whether he follows through is an open question, but as for his ideas for Gaza, Trump is being very serious (regardless of their illegality and impracticality). It’s not a negotiating ploy. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/u...

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

The Trump transition’s approach to ceasefire diplomacy gave the impression that Trump wanted calm and didn’t want the early portion of his presidency to be consumed by Gaza and regional war. His latest ultimatum on the hostages suggests that he may not be so risk averse, even in this region.

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

I joined Richard Atwood along with several of my colleagues on this week’s Hold Your Fire episode to talk Trump and Gaza. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

submitted 26 days ago • 1 comment

As expected. Will be interesting to see how Egypt now deals with such an obvious public disagreement with Trump and his administration. Perhaps not exactly what they envisioned for a second Trump term.

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

The Trump administration has ordered a 90-day pause in virtually all foreign aid. This decision has major implications for Latin America, affecting everything from security operations in Colombia and Haiti to protecting civic space in Venezuela. A 🧵 on its most worrisome effects

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

The impacts of USAID shutdown will vary significantly, but the story from Colombia is an important one, pointing to how abrupt shifts may damage short-term stability while undermining U.S. credibility in the longer term.

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

At one level, this is the obvious point to make. But when the president of the United States keeps saying it we also probably don’t have the luxury of simply pointing to the patent insanity of it all.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

Let’s set aside the practicality and legality of such an effort, we are still left with the question of why in the world the U.S. would want to do such a thing.

submitted 29 days ago • 2 comments

In the case of Egypt, forced displacement of Palestinians into Sinai would generate destabilizing spillover; not only popular outrage but huge resistance from the military and security establishment.

submitted 30 days ago • 1 comment

It’s no longer simply an aside or a throw away comment. Whether Trump is intent on pushing this forward is an open question, but the region will surely have to contend with it. A potentially huge problem for both Egypt and Jordan and other U.S. regional partners. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02...

submitted 30 days ago • 7 comments

That’s a pretty notable move for Rubio, considering his prior support for various democracy promotion efforts. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/03/u...

submitted 30 days ago • 4 comments

With war in Ukraine raging on & Donald Trump’s second term as president offering multiple surprises daily, our new @CrisisGroup report on the future of European security predicts a continuing bumpy ride, explains why, & offers some thoughts on how, perhaps to smooth it. Somewhat. A 🧵 1/19

submitted 31 days ago • 1 comment

It's hard to understate the corrosive effects of the aid freeze on U.S. influence. The message is clear: you cannot count on U.S. assistance, and if you do it will threaten your citizens, your stability, and your development. China now looks like a much better bet.

submitted 34 days ago • 9 comments

Making Famine Great Again

submitted 34 days ago • 0 comments

Trump’s comments on Egypt/Gaza have provoked consternation in Cairo, despite warm relations between Trump and Sisi. If pursued will be a major strain in ties. FT piece below includes my thoughts. Donald Trump pressures Egypt and Jordan to accept Gaza ‘clean out’ plan www.ft.com/content/45ae...

submitted 36 days ago • 1 comment

“He appears to be asserting a roving authority to override or simply ignore binding federal legislation whenever it interferes with his policy aims — regardless of whether the context is one of foreign affairs or national emergency.”

submitted 37 days ago • 0 comments

As I wrote in @lawfare.bsky.social, President Trump should offer bolder sanctions reforms than Biden did if he wants to prevent Syria from descending into chaos. 1/3 🧵 www.lawfaremedia.org/article/u.s....

submitted 42 days ago • 1 comment

Our assessments of the Gaza ceasefire. A limited deal is of course welcome as a first step, but for the deal to match expectations many important details will need to be agreed upon, and will likely require outside engagement, encouragement, and pressure. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments