mykolabielieskov.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Worst moment in UA-US bilateral relations since its inception as 🇺🇦 is waging war for its very existence. How can we build mutually beneficial relations with US under this administration if 🇺🇦 President is not heard literally&UA rightful interests are disregarded in real time?

submitted 71 days ago • 6 comments

Btw what “mutual concessions by UA&RU for peace” as Trump team said mean in case of RU? There is unfortunately no specifics what RU shall cease to ask out of UA - only hints about what UA might be forced to sacrifice. Geopolitical experiments paid by blood of Ukrainian Nation.

submitted 87 days ago • 12 comments

All recent statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding UA-RU war are based on the misguided assumption that with this war dynamics situation is ripe for compromises and durable settlement. References to stalemate are best proof of this misguided idea. Thread 🧵

submitted 100 days ago • 4 comments

All these commemorations related to WWII end are just meaningless show as there is a war going on for 11th year which a kind of appeasement stretched in time. As people would reiterate “Never again” mantra there is zero courage&leadership to prevent a catastrophe in making.

submitted 104 days ago • 2 comments

After a 1 year pause it seems that it’s a high time to come back to this back up channel of communications.

submitted 156 days ago • 11 comments

Escalation management as basis of Biden Admin policy to UA-RU big war is in contradiction with sound mil strategy which is about destroying enemy in defence&offence quicker than he recovers without giving him a chance to regroup&adjust. Sure gen Patton would have said just that.

submitted 548 days ago • 6 comments

If RU decides to conduct another major offensive these missiles both in cluster&unitary warheads versions might prove instrumental in easing pressure on frontline UA formations provided proper application. SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.

submitted 548 days ago • 1 comment

Good calculation

submitted 548 days ago • 0 comments

Today 19th missile brigade of UA Defense Forces celebrated day of its establishment. 19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02. But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.

submitted 548 days ago • 1 comment

Headlines matter WashPost - "As war frustrations rise, stalemate tests Zelensky and top general Zaluzhny" NYT - "Zelensky Rebuke of Top General Signals Rift in Ukrainian Leadership" Wording matters as unwarranted dramatising might do lot of harm related to people' perception.

submitted 550 days ago • 2 comments

Even before 24.02.22 it was obvious that RU is not interested in conventional arms control&confidence building measures as it turned into revisionist state with threat/use of mil force as prime instrument. So days of CFE treaty were numbered. link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...

submitted 550 days ago • 0 comments

Unfortunately both people inside&outside of UA mostly concentrate on specific personalities analysing war dynamics instead of giving a thought to objective conditions. By this people miss really important things and how they shape limits of possible. Thread 🧵

submitted 553 days ago • 3 comments

What is clear by now is that “Prevent RU from winning, prevent UA from losing” favoured by Biden Admin is not sustainable strategy any more.

submitted 557 days ago • 8 comments

If UA can leverage demands of some Republicans that Biden Admin has to provide proper strategy of UA victory to complement with another major military aid package it will be a kind of unexpected positive development under really dire conditions.

submitted 557 days ago • 5 comments

105 years ago today as A-H empire collapsed UAs seized key administrative buildings in Lviv to declare West Ukrainian People’ Republic. Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.

submitted 557 days ago • 2 comments

Sustained flow along with wise employment of SRBM ATACMS even with cluster munitions warhead is not a silver bullet itself but it might create new dilemmas for RU grouping of forces and new openings for UA Defense Forces to exploit.

submitted 557 days ago • 1 comment

Instead of just admitting fact that UA 2023 campaign results have proven to be modest despite huge sacrifice, true UA friends shall initiate substantive debate how better align UA political goals, capabilities&combat proficiency for 2024 campaign.

submitted 558 days ago • 3 comments

UA not only surrendered strat&tac nukes+delivery means but things like SRBMs SCUD&bombers Tu-22M3. UA was weakened under nonproliferation/disarmament rubric with no hard security guarantees in NATO. It was ok when RU was weak. But it proved disastrous when RU recovered.

submitted 558 days ago • 3 comments

Year ago UA’s ability to exploit RU’s miscalculations&mistakes was treated as synonymous to idea that UA had somehow gained decisive qualitative&quantitative advantage over RU and strategic initiative. This kind of misinterpretation is the source of all problems down the road.

submitted 558 days ago • 0 comments

Instead of trying to suggest some ways out of obvious strategic dilemmas UA faces (which have been discussed for some time ago) all TIME journalist managed to do is to repackage known problems in just another “revelation” article. That’s the level of journalism we deserve. 🤦‍♂️

submitted 558 days ago • 1 comment

After gen Christopher Cavoli admitted to US lawmakers behind closed doors at sidelines of Munich SecConf 2023 that UA deep fight capabilities need to be strengthened UA Commander in Chief increased interaction with gen Cavoli who think like true military man not politician.

submitted 562 days ago • 1 comment

Hope CEE countries (which either possess/going to acquire M142/270) give a thought of establishing joint GMLRS production under agreement with Lockheed Martin with proper offsets and localisation. Bargaining position of CEE countries would be quite persuasive.

submitted 563 days ago • 1 comment

Most of people think in terms of costs/risks of specific action instead of costs/risks of inaction. Unfortunately. In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.

submitted 566 days ago • 1 comment

I just want to acclaim WSJ&The Economist which have not turned a blind eye on ongoing UA-RU war. Let be honest most of media “got bored” with war where little terrain change hands. Covering ME is right. What is not - to pretend that biggest war in Europe somehow settled itself.

submitted 568 days ago • 4 comments

Recent events proved that it’s much easier&cost effective to destroy RU hellos on airfields en masse by SRBMs instead of trying to shoot hellos one by one with lesser chances for success&bigger munitions consumption. US indeed does right things after trying anything else.

submitted 569 days ago • 0 comments

Prophets of “air power alone delivered effects” might be disappointed a little bit. Artillery still matters. On the other hand it’s very unfortunate that US can’t deconflict rightly UA and Isreal needs - let Israel receive more JDAMs&Hellfires and UA gets more artillery ammo.

submitted 569 days ago • 4 comments

If majority tend to turn a blind eye on biggest European war it won’t mean that problem somehow solve itself. I’ve tried in broad terms to frame parameters of next year campaign and UA mil strategy for Atlantic council given objective constraint and known unknowns.

submitted 572 days ago • 1 comment

A transcript of conversation done with @fabricedeprez.bsky.social approximately month ago. Hope you’ll find smth interesting that improve your understanding of UA-RU big war dynamics. t.co/FIA7J8N8fx

submitted 572 days ago • 1 comment

This text aged well.

submitted 576 days ago • 2 comments

When your so called strategic depth is close to zero you have no other option than to hone such a mobilisation model. Impressive feat in any case.

submitted 578 days ago • 0 comments

Ramstein format countries committed whopping ~77 bln of dollars for UA self defense since Feb 2022. But effect of such an investment has been largely nullified as RU was allowed to mobilise, regroup, stabilise front, create defense in depth with obstacles. Tempo is most important in warfare.

submitted 578 days ago • 1 comment