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ninaecon.bsky.social
Still working on a Mitski/Minsky pun and asking if it’s a crisis or a boring change https://ninaephd.org/
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FFS New York Times. They’re not *his generals. Unbelievable

Everyone should read this Andrew Van Dam piece on how much work federal employees put in and then get really really mad at that clown Elon Musk www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Federal employee terminations will cause widespread economic damage even beyond the hardships for specific employees How many federal workers live in your state or county or congressional district? I made an little interactive site to tell you economic.github.io/federal_work...

a lot of what @raaleh.bsky.social and I talked about:

How many federal workers would DOGE need to fire to make up for Musk not paying his fair share of taxes? Answer: 677,000. That's 44% of the entire non-DoD federal workforce. Again, this power grab is not about the budget. It’s about politics.

Another way to put this: Musk and his twerps have exposed us to pandemics, broken science, stolen all your data, endangered the U.S. payments system, threatened air traffic control, and cut off HIV medication to 20m people in order to save ::checks notes:: 2/10th of a percent of the federal budget.

tenor.com/search/addam...

One thing that really gets me is that yes what Harris was offering had real problems but if she's elected there are frameworks within which you can push to correct them, she doesn't just get elected and then politics is over. In the scenario we've got, on the other hand...

Federal workforce cuts are the only economically meaningful impact of the DOGE process so far. 250k layoffs of probationary workers added to 75k of future unfilled positions from the buyout totals a couple months of payroll growth. Other cuts so far are just noise. Thread.

i think it has not sunk in for people, including newspaper headline writers, that "probationary" employees does not just mean like, young novice staffers right out of college, but those who have received promotions in the last year

"Why is this a potential crisis in the making? The $28 trillion market for Treasuries...depends first and foremost on trust....What happens if investors conclude there is default risk in the largest and most liquid financial market in the world?" www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...

Important op-ed from Trevor Morrison and Richard Pildes on what courts can do if the Trump admin continues to defy court orders on impoundment. Particularly key: external actors (financial markets, media, public protest) become more important as the defiance becomes more open.

the capital class underrated the value of stable liberal governance to their own material interests

You asked. We listened. Thunderdome construction has begun.

Paging JMKeynes:

I wrote about how the Trump administration's assault on the civil service draws from the same playbook used for decades against public school teachers. A nation that devalues its public servants devalues its future www.vox.com/donald-trump...

For a long time, the most egregious example of an exorbitant overdraft fee was $35 for a $5 cup of coffee. I think we have a new winner—$15k because Elon Musk lawlessly raided NYC’s bank account.

Author of the piece was Comptroller of the Currency and only just discovered the actual definition of the U3 unemployment rate? Absolutely devastating and unrecoverable self own. Do not listen to people like this lol.

Furman’s FA piece against Bidenomics makes some claims about industrial policy that seemed unsupported. Crowding out investment? The gravity of evidence so far points toward these policies having *crowded in* investment. This was the big question for many of us thinking about industrial policy.

Pairs well with Joe ( @weisenthal.bsky.social ) and Tracy's ( @tracyalloway.bsky.social ) commentary at the end of their interview with @nathantankus.bsky.social on their Odd Lots episode about the Treasury's payment system:

it is good of senator warren to say this true thing now

I dunno man. I look back through a pandemic recovery as a Dad, and I think most employment recovery analysis needs to consider childcare issues in the US. A lot of analysis on the past 4 years that will be interesting to discuss after these next 4 years I think.

Silicon Valley is about to get a jarring reminder of where the innovation that they build companies on top of actually occurs, and who has been paying for it.