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noahbarkin.bsky.social
Watching 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 for Rhodium Group & GMF in Berlin. Sign up for my monthly newsletter: https://www.gmfus.org/watching-china-europe. And my Substack: noahbarkin.substack.com
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I think allies have understood that the US can’t be relied upon anymore. But no harm in reinforcing the message. Well done Pete

Lots of lion’s den talk before Merz’s meeting with Trump. I expect the meeting itself to go quite well. The risk is that a good meeting leads to zero change in Trump’s hostile stance towards Europe, including on tariffs

Longtime Volkswagen lobbyist Jens Hanefeld to become German ambassador to Washington, beating out Russia apologist Jens Plötner, who will instead lead German rearmament efforts. This is not The Onion. Just Germany continuing to do what Germany does

It's now June 5 in China and there was no post from the German embassy or ambassador on the Tiananmen anniversary Here's last year's, on the 35 anniversary. We hear a lot about how there'll be no human rights "grandstanding" from new chancellor Merz. Is this an early example?

China is crippling European industry but it’s all a big misunderstanding. They don’t really mean it and want good relations. Wow on.ft.com/3HmBxDl

Carrots in the form of planes and sticks in the form of a rare earth controls. Pretty transparent message from Beijing before a July summit with the EU. Will Europe play this coercion game? The Merz-Trump meeting tomorrow has taken on added importance

Big Handelsblatt story on the impact of China’s rare earth controls on German industry. As I wrote for GMF yesterday, companies in the auto, med-tech and other sectors have been forced to stop production. This was predictable. But firms seem shocked & unprepared www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...

A senior official who dismantled the US government’s Russian disinformation unit is married to a Russian woman with links to the Kremlin www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025...

China’s rare earth controls were described to me as “the most extreme case of economic coercion” that Europe has ever seen from Beijing. Read more in my latest Watching China in Europe column for GMF @gmfus.bsky.social www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...

A chicken in more ways than one on.ft.com/3ZzqMEf

Not the most reassuring message from Scott Bessent on the risks of a US default: “We are on the warning track and we will never hit the wall” on.ft.com/4ju6see

Polish nationalist Nawrocki has moved ahead of his liberal rival and is now on track to become president. www.politico.eu/article/libe...

Welcome news from Poland, where exit polls show liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski ahead of his hard-right rival Karol Nawrocki. If the lead holds, a big win for centrism over populism

Ukraine stages audacious attack on airfields deep in Russian territory on.ft.com/3HATVZd

Merz will meet with Trump in Washington on June 5th www.politico.eu/article/merz...

New German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche offers her first comments on relations with China. No mention of the competitive challenge its firms now pose to industries that Germany once dominated. on.ft.com/45szveT

An important new investigation finds that Chinese authorities have moved tens of thousands of Uyghurs from Xinjiang to work in factories elsewhere in China - including to suppliers of firms like Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, McDonald’s, KFC, Samsung, LG and Crocs. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Since the onset of Western sanctions in 2022, India’s imports of Russian crude have surged over tenfold, with Russian oil now accounting for more than 30 percent of India’s crude basket, compared to near-zero before the Ukraine war www.orfonline.org/expert-speak...

Marco Rubio is creating a new “Office of Natural Rights” at the State Department that will “build the foundation for criticisms of free speech backsliding in Europe and other developed nations” www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

US trade court bombshell highlights why the EU should ignore Trump's tariff threats - in my op-ed for @politico.eu I argue that negotiation & retaliation are pointless, meaning Europe's best option is to do nothing (setting a useful precedent on how to handle Trump) 👇 www.politico.eu/article/euro...

The timing of the US court ruling on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could not be better for the EU. It had been on the verge of softening its position (FT story) to avoid a trade war w/the US. Now the tables have turned (even if steel, cars, chips, pharma remain a major threat) on.ft.com/4kFbpCb

Most of Trump’s tariffs are ruled illegal by a US court in a major blow to his entire economic agenda www.nytimes.com/2025/05/28/b...

Rubio welcomes the new German foreign minister to Washington with a threat to sanction foreign officials who clamp down on hate speech www.reuters.com/business/med...

The latest EUCCC survey shows an interesting tension among European companies in China: growing gloom over the economic slowdown & squeezed profits, on the one hand, and an inability to live without China because of a dependence on manufacturing inputs, on the other on.ft.com/3Fnil80

From the US State Department: “Europe has devolved into a hotbed of digital censorship, mass migration, restrictions on religious freedom, and numerous other assaults on democratic self-governance” statedept.substack.com/p/the-need-f...

Putin launches missile and drone strikes. Trump launches endless social media posts, warning of measures against Russia that never come. on.ft.com/4kvAxey

In his first weeks, Merz has broken with the cautious Scholz approach on a range of important lissues. A good sign for Germany and Europe on.ft.com/44VD6SG

Ukraine accuses China of supplying a range of important products - tooling machines, special chemical products, gunpowder and components - to the Russian defense industry www.reuters.com/world/china/...

Under Sanchez, Spain has become the least “European” large state in the EU. After cozying up to China & resisting NATO spending pledges, he is threatening to pare back military commitments in the Baltics unless the EU recognizes Basque, Catalan & Galician as official languages on.ft.com/3H51lUC

Trump backs down once again, agreeing to delay 50% tariffs on the EU after his first call with Ursula von der Leyen since re-entering the White House. But the issues that divide the US & EU on trade haven’t gone away. De-escalation welcome but may be fleeting on.ft.com/4mLuIvw

I expect the EU to do what China did (successfully) and call Trump’s bluff on.ft.com/3Hbu1ew

Germany appears to be on the verge of blocking an offshore wind project in the North Sea using Chinese wind turbines due to risks of spying & sabotage. It would be the first concrete sign of a change in China policy from the new Merz government. www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/R...

If Trump follows through on his threat to impose 50% tariffs on the EU from June 1, it is likely to trigger a debate on using the bloc’s anti-coercion instrument.

German readout from first Merz-Xi call: - Both stressed willingness to work together on global challenges - Both highlighted importance of bilateral economic ties - Merz stressed importance of fair competition/reciprocity - Merz sought Xi’s support for EU/US push for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire

Europe’s dilemma: how to lure value-added investments from China to a broad set of member states. rhg.com/research/chi...

I don’t find this terribly reassuring. 48% of the country is living in a fantasy world or cave

Chinese FDI in Europe rose for the first time in 7 years in 2024, driven by a surge in EV and battery projects in Hungary, which attracted more investment than Germany, France & the UK combined. A sneak preview of our annual Rhodium/MERICS report (out tomorrow) in the FT👇🏼 on.ft.com/4j5jm29

Love me some Kenny Rogers & Dolly Parton but methinks this is a linguistic stretch

Macron joins Merz in calling for an end to the EU's corporate supply chain due diligence rules. Human rights and environmental concerns are taking a back seat as the bloc's focus shifts to industrial competitiveness and reducing red tape www.politico.eu/article/macr...

“What Trump wants enacted is the most anti-blue collar budget in memory. Call it Hunger Games 2025. It is an odd way of repaying their voters” @edwardluce.bsky.social on.ft.com/45fDvzh

Important signal: German defense minister (SPD) and foreign minister (CDU) have now publicly backed the 5% defense spending commitment for NATO members. This is the kind of clear cross-party messaging on foreign/defense policy that was missing in recent years. www.politico.eu/article/pist...

Updates on Huawei-gate Belgian authorities have asked the European Parliament to strip the immunities of a group of EU lawmakers so they can be investigated for their alleged involvement in a cash-for-influence scandal linked to the Chinese tech firm Huawei. www.politico.eu/article/belg...

German readout of call between European leaders and Trump, following his conversation with Putin, makes clear that Trump did not support increasing pressure on Putin: “The European participants vowed to increase pressure on the Russians through sanctions” www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktu...

Major signal from the new Merz government. Germany made major energy policy missteps during the Merkel era and it’s good news that its holier-than-thou approach is no longer being foisted upon European partners on.ft.com/4j6J5r2

Romanian far-right candidate Simion is declaring victory in the presidential election despite exit polls showing he lost. How long before a senior Trump administration official backs his claim? www.politico.eu/article/roma...

The presidential election in Poland has just ended. See the estimated exit poll results.

Europe appears to have dodged a bullet in Romania, with the centrist mayor of Bucharest on track to defeat his populist Trumpian opponent. Yet another defeat for MAGA after Canada & Australia. on.ft.com/4jaMyVF