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patrickww.bsky.social
Journalist interested in economics, climate change, technology, labor. Hill Country Texan. @PatrickW at the X place but trying to escape. Once a soldier.
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Constantly changing immigration policy is kind of like changing tariff rates. Both make business difficult. Maybe your perfect applicant is legal now. But will they be legal three months from now? No one knows. www.axios.com/2025/06/16/i...

I only saw a few clips but had the same impression. The troops clearly didn’t want to be there.

They have essentially offered amnesty to some (not all) employers allowing undocumented labor. But, kind of like tariff rollbacks, the situation can get worse again at any time. No one should bet this is permanent. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/u...

Today's higher oil prices, if they persist, should kill any hopes the Fed will cut interest rates. The boost to inflation will also amplify tariff damage.

If mass deportation is really so good for the economy, red state residents should be asking why California is first to receive this wonderful benefit.

This ICE shift to raiding workplaces seems likely to reduce labor supply as immigrants either self-deport or stay in hiding. Look for impact in agriculture, meatpacking, restaurants and construction, just to start. This will probably add more inflation pressure if it persists.

Not surprising. Trump views the troops as theatrical props and always treats them as such. And btw, they are no longer “state troops.” They are under federal command and the Pentagon is responsible for their treatment.

"Science has this awkward tendency to tell you things you didn’t want to know and give you answers you didn’t want. The Trump administration may pretend to want better science, but at a fundamental level MAGA dislikes and distrusts the very idea of science." paulkrugman.substack.com/p/nobody-exp...

That grant of almost total immunity to the president could be doing some big work soon.

@drobertsimg.bsky.social used Mike Tyson as an analogy. Tyson was all offensive. Scared everyone into submission. He seemed invincible. But then someone figured out he had no reaction when finally put on the defensive. And that was it for Tyson. Same here. Trump will have no reaction to backlash.

Schrodinger's economy is both doing great and flirting with disaster.

Four sources, four different spins on jobs report. Bloomberg: "topping estimates" NYT: "extending a steady run" WSJ: "hiring slowed" FT: "labor market weakens"

must be incredibly frustrating and disheartening to have federal funding that was promised to you for important work suddenly and arbitrarily ripped away

A prudent lender doesn't make loans where the collateral may become uninsurable, which means fewer home sales in these places. Hurricane zones, too. That's probably what needs to happen. But it's going to hurt many people.

Irkutsk is about 2500 miles from Ukraine. Unclear if the drones flew the whole distance or were covertly launched from somewhere closer. But either way, nowhere in Russia is safe. www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Deals with the devil never work for long. Trad conservatives are learning this the hard way. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/u...

Seems important.

"Trump’s impatience makes him not only an unreliable negotiator; it makes him a weak one." www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/...

Neo-Marxist Trump administration is slowly gaining control of the means of production.

"I'm so glad Trump restored free speech," says person who is afraid to criticize Trump.

Often when I talk to Republicans and they quote Trump, Musk, etc, I simply ask, "Do you really believe that?" The usual response is silence, gulp, then Yes. They live in a cult where no one dares question Dear Leader. They know on some level it's not true, but they dare not admit it.

This is key to understanding Trump. He is *incapable* of caring what happens to other people. Not just Ukrainians but Americans, too. All other humans are toys, valuable only as long as we amuse him then tossed aside. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

When someone repeatedly shows themself to be a shameless liar, journalists shouldn’t give them benefit of the doubt. On anything.

Drill baby nope.

They don’t care about debts. They don’t care about deficits. The pattern has been clear for decades. But they don’t want you to know they don’t care because that would be bad for them.

The money foreign students spend while they are in the US counts as an *export* in trade data. So this action, if sustained, will make Trump's hated trade deficit even bigger. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/u...

Many saying the Senate will change this bill. I don’t think so. GOP senators, like the House, will give Trump whatever he wants because they’re afraid not to. Which means the real question is what does Trump want? Whatever that is, he’ll get it.

Wait, I was told Republicans would protect Medicare.

Wait, I was told Trump would usher in a new era of free speech.

Maybe this is true but there is no reason to give Musk benefit of the doubt. He is a well-known liar and has many ways to keep donating secretly. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/20/u...

President Trump’s tariffs are all being done under executive authority. That means any future president could change them. In fact, nothing stops Trump himself from reneging on any deal he makes. Experience suggests he probably will, too. 1/2

Business-friendly administration exults in punishing businesses.

People who are truly able-bodied don't consume a lot of routine health care, so this will save little money.

Who knows if this is true. But it indicates Trump still thinks he can simply dictate terms and other countries will do what he says. qz.com/trump-tariff...

Important piece here. The whole concept of "risk" loses its meaning without a "no risk" benchmark. The full faith and credit of the US government once filled that role. Now Trump is making it doubtful. This has consequences.

He was *leaving* the US, not trying to enter. They arrested him anyway.

Carl Sagan, 30 years ago.

Price hikes? Everyone has “cover” now. @wsj.com @barrons.com $WMT www.wsj.com/business/ret...

American Maoism

Economic stimulus for Florida dentists.

I wrote about a lesson we should have learned from the pandemic: when Trump demands sacrifice, it doesn't go well.