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pbergsen.bsky.social
Europe macro stuff
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I thought the video Macron posted about his charm offensive was actually pretty cool, Trump clearly doesn’t agree

Interesting that inflation didn’t play much of a role, only 5% of Germans mentioned it as the most important theme in their decision

Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.

Think this explains the rather mediocre CDU result: German voters don't forget and still blame them for the countries' problems to just about the same extent as the SPD and Greens but the CDU is seen as responsible the high number of refugees

Basically a bog-standard European election result

Substantial increase in turnout in Germany, which is likely distorted somewhat by the large share of postal votes in 2021. Hard to say what this means but a superficial reading could be good for AfD, also because turnout is up more in eastern states.

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* And so, it’s official and so begin the mutual recriminations: the FPÖ and ÖVP have pulled the plug on their coalition talks, plunging the country into uncertainty as irreconcilable differences between the major parties preclude them from any viable paths to power. 1/27

We need a total and complete shutdown of new funds thought up by EU policymakers until someone can figure out what's going on with the same euro of spending being labeled by multiple different programmes, objectives or funds.

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Frohes neues Jahr! This morning, Beate Meinl-Reisinger (BMR), the leader of the liberal centrist NEOS, announced the withdrawal of her party from negotiations form a three-party coalition with the conservative People's Party (ÖVP) and centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ). 1/8

So many think pieces on the Habsburgs and European integration only for the North Americans to create a dual presidency with a customs union modelled on the Austro-Hungarian empire

Should we call it the Bergsen Law of Political Atrophy (after @pbergsen.bsky.social) that all Western political systems eventually end up consisting of a large number of relatively small parties?

Not sure I’ll ever quite get used to how incredibly patronising the whole system of European fiscal monitoring is

A frugal has fallen

In 2021 I published a piece in a German paper telling Germans not to be afraid of a bit of political fragmentation. I obviously wasn’t very convincing as some polls now suggest German voters might return only four or five parties into the next Bundestag, clearly all just to spite me.