perthes.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Short interview on Syria and its rekations with interested geopolitical players (Swiss Radio, in German) www.srf.ch/audio/echo-d...

submitted 21 days ago • 1 comment

My main take-aways from this year’s Munich Security Conference: the speech of US Vice President JD Vance was hopefully the shock Europe needs … ( see more on my LinkedIn account: linkedin.com/in/volker-pe... )

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Finnish President Alexander Stubb @MunSecConf : the choice today is between Yalta 1945 (“zones of influence”) and Helsinki 1975(re-establishing core UN principles of int’l order: independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity of all states). He is right.

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Panel on Sudan at the Munich Security Conference. Humanitarian and political aspects. Important discussion and exchanges. securityconference.org/en/msc-2025/...

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Europe needs to support Syria’s reconstruction by lifting (not suspending) sanctions. It also needs to rethink Syria as part of a regional geo-economic strategy. More in my piece in “Tagesspiegel” and “Handelsblatt” (in German): www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

Sudan’s civilian “Taqaddum” coalition announced its split over differences about a government-in-exile. Personally I think a government-in-exile isn’t a good idea. Without authority on the ground such bodies are soon forgotten & setting it up in RSF-controlled areas would mean to legitimise the RSF.

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

Langes Podcast-Interview fürs Wochenende: Ein eineinhalbstündiges Gespräch über Trump und die Welt, oder genauer: über die USA, internationale Ordnung, Europa, den Ukraine-Krieg, den Nahen Osten, wie man Verhandlungen führt u.a.

submitted 45 days ago • 0 comments

www.sueddeutsche.de/meinung/podc...

submitted 46 days ago • 0 comments

Instead of trying to leverage Syria’s new beginnings to their advantage, world powers should look beyond their own narrow interests—and support Syria in its efforts to rebuild its economy and establish peace, writes @perthes.bsky.social.

submitted 46 days ago • 0 comments

My latest on #Syria. Don‘t let geopolitics get in the way of international support www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/dont-l...

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

Looking forward to speaking at All Souls in Oxford: www.politics.ox.ac.uk/event/sudans...

submitted 52 days ago • 0 comments

I am not concerned that Trump would actually use force to aquire #Greenland or #Canada or the Panama Canal. What concerns me is that such statements relativise or even legitimise Russia's war of conquest in Ukraine. And thereby undermine his own prospects of negotiating an end to the war with Putin.

submitted 62 days ago • 2 comments

Let me wish everybody who celebrates Christmas or Hannukah or otherwise enjoys the holidays a happy festive season. Don‘t forget how many people there are in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine and other places who would love to have a holiday but can’t. And a hopefully (more) peaceful new year to all.

submitted 77 days ago • 1 comment

An interview (from minute 3.03) on what the international community should do to support the transition in ⁦‪Syria‬⁩. In English with Arabic translation. (And my name is still Perthes بيرتس - neither Peres nor Peretz. Never mind - معليش youtu.be/porZd2cc83M?...

submitted 82 days ago • 0 comments

Here is the video from the panel at the World Policy Conference im Abu Dhabi, 15 December 2024, on „War and Peace in the Middle East, and the Role of Europe“. www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0Yn...

submitted 85 days ago • 0 comments

It was a real pleasure to participate in this year‘s World Policy Conference in Abu Dhabi, speaking on the Middle East and, more importantly, listening to experts from around the world, and catching up with friends from Europe, India, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Russia, UAE, USA, and others.

submitted 86 days ago • 0 comments

Early morning radio interview on regional contributions to developments in Syria - and implications for the region (Deutschlandfunk, in German). share.deutschlandradio.de/dlf-audiothe...

submitted 88 days ago • 0 comments

Some remarks from my side on the rational of Israel‘s and Turkiye‘s actions in Syria. And why they are unhelpful , to say the least. (In German). www.swr.de/swraktuell/r...

submitted 90 days ago • 2 comments

Interview in Germany's FAZ about the risks for the transition in Syria: Why I am cautiously optimistic. Why Syria can learn from Iraq and Libya, and why I think it will. Also on the choices Turkiye has to make if it wants a stable neighbour in the South. (In German) www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...

submitted 91 days ago • 1 comment

Some European politicians now make irresponsible and, sorry, stupid statements about „sending Syrians home“. Syrians celebrate the fall of Asad, but #Syria isn‘t stable yet. Many want to & will return to rebuild their country. We should support them when they do, but will miss most of those leaving.

submitted 92 days ago • 0 comments

A chain reaction in the Middle East: Hizbullah’s miscalculation weakened it, Iran lost its deterrence, Russia preoccupied in Ukraine. So no one there to defend a regime not even defended by its army. Turkey has somewhat contradictory goals, Israel lost a reliable foe. Short TV interview (in German).

submitted 93 days ago • 0 comments

The Asad regime has occupied me for a good part of my academic life and some years of working with the previous UN Special Envoy for Syria. Now it’s over. Iran, Hizbullah, Russia unable or unwilling to keep Asad in power. Not even his army willing to fight for him. (More on my LinkedIn account)

submitted 94 days ago • 0 comments

Back from 2 days of discussion in Washington: sober mood regarding incoming administration’s policies on Ukraine, trade, alliances. Open questions re policies on Middle East, China. No love for Europe and for alliances. Bottom line: Europe needs to step up, including difficult questions on defense.

submitted 94 days ago • 0 comments

Striking about recent events in Syria: Domestically so much looks like a repeat of 2011-15 (same regions, grievances, legitimacy issues, actors). The main changing variable seems to be the external one: priorities, strengths, weaknesses of Hizbullah, Iran, Russia, Turkey, Qatar, US and others.

submitted 100 days ago • 0 comments

Interview on the conflict in Sudan and international diplomacy around it. The conflict, to be precise, is not „forgotten“, but rather ignored www.linkedin.com/posts/folkeb...

submitted 104 days ago • 0 comments

Pleasant meeting today with Bafel Talabani, President of PUK, Iraqi Kurdistan. It seems that the Kurdistan region has stabilized further after successful regional elections. Major parties need to agree on a coalition. And Kurdistan as well as Iraq at large is open for business.

submitted 104 days ago • 0 comments

Good there is a ceasefire in Lebanon. What it shows: if any outsider can influence Middle East actors, it is the US. What it demands: For Israel - to take the win, cease fire in Gaza, refrain from escalating with Iran. For Hizbullah and Iran - to accept defeat and allow Lebanon to consolidate.

submitted 105 days ago • 0 comments

„Expertenregierung“ ist eine nette Idee - werde ja selbst immer wieder als „Experte“ tituliert. Würde glücklicherweise auch heißen, dass wir keine BSW-Politiker in Regierungsämtern befürchten müssten.

submitted 105 days ago • 0 comments

Something beyond politics this morning: I really don‘t understand the Dubai chocolate hype - why would I eat chocolate filled with knafeh? However, if you want to eat chocolate from the Emirate, they also produce some straight good chocolate. My son particularly loved the camel milk variant.

submitted 109 days ago • 0 comments

German Social Democrats now engaged in favorite pastime: Kill (politically speaking) your own chancellor/candidate/party leader rather than standing united. Has happened to others (Helmut Schmidt, Martin Schulz, …). Unsolicited advice: let your competitors fight your man. Focus on your achievements.

submitted 112 days ago • 0 comments

What-I-Read: David Petraeus, Andrew Roberts/ Conflict. The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine, 2023. This is a book about war and military technology from a soldier‘s perspective. Very much about what generals do - but an interesting read.… (More on my LinkedIn account)

submitted 121 days ago • 0 comments

Recent interview on Sudan in „Zenith“ magazine (in German) magazin.zenith.me/de/politik/i...

submitted 125 days ago • 0 comments

6 November will be remembered in Germany: Waking up with Trump sweeping US elections. Germany will have a key role for Europe’s relations with a Trump-2 administration; lots to do for the German government. Yesterday night that government broke down over liberal party's financial-policy rigidity.

submitted 125 days ago • 0 comments

Something to read again in the light of the US presidential elections: Our 2019 study on European Strategic Autonomy. Some features have changed, but the main challenges remain and Europe is still not able to stand on its own feet without transatlantic support: www.swp-berlin.org/publications...

submitted 126 days ago • 0 comments

Very useful roundtable with Saudi colleagues on the Middle East, EU-GCC, maritime security, and Gulf states relations with China, India, and Russia. Full of insights and ideas. Thanks to the German Foreign Office for bringing the group together and to Saudi and German co-panelists for their inputs.

submitted 131 days ago • 0 comments

Polarization between Egypt and Ethiopia, Somalia’s ongoing struggles, the war in Sudan and regional competition for influence and access risk to melt into one. A diplomatic effort to de-escalate is needed. My comment in “Der Tagesspiegel” (in German). www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...

submitted 138 days ago • 0 comments

Sunrise.

submitted 149 days ago • 0 comments

Just published: Here is my account of the work of UNITAMS in Sudan, lessons that can be learned, and the limits of UN good offices. These limits are particularly evident where two armies are set for war against each other. www.swp-berlin.org/publications...

submitted 160 days ago • 0 comments

#Iran and #Israel have moved from a logic of deterrence to a logic of retribution. The only way - ironically - to leave this logic seems to be to exercise it, i.e., to retaliate, try to limit the damage, hope the other side understands and accepts this, and thereby restore some deterrence.

submitted 161 days ago • 0 comments

Längeres Radiointerview zum Nahen Osten (vor der Tötung Nasrallahs aufgenommen) im Österreichischen Rundfunk. oe1.orf.at/player/20240...

submitted 164 days ago • 0 comments

“Action 14” in the UN „Pact for the Future“ (adopted by consensus 22/9/2024) says: „We will protect all civilians in armed conflict.“ (Not “some civilians” but „all“. Not „we will attempt to“ but: „We will protect …“). This is a commitment of all states. Let’s hold leaders accountable: #Action14.

submitted 169 days ago • 0 comments

It seems that the upcoming United Nations Summit of the Future will actually agree by consensus on the draft "Pact for the Future". This is quite an achievement. Let me attach a comment which I published last month (here in English, originally in German):

submitted 172 days ago • 0 comments

„Can international interventions, and can the UN, prevent or stop wars?“ That is the question former Swiss diplomat Tim Guldiman discusses with Melanie Hauenstein (UNDP) and me in his podcast „Debate á trois“ (in German). open.spotify.com/episode/6tkM...

submitted 180 days ago • 0 comments

Hunger is used as a weapon of war“. A podcast interview on #Sudan with „Der Spiegel“ (only in German, sorry). www.spiegel.de/ausland/krie...

submitted 186 days ago • 0 comments

www.srf.ch/play/tv/srfg...

submitted 187 days ago • 0 comments

What-I-Read: Robin Niblett, The New Cold War. How the Contest Between the US and China Will Shape our Century (Atlantic Books, London, 2024): While I don’t entirely agree with Niblett’s bipolar frame (see more on my LinkedIn account), this concise, intelligent book is absolutely worth reading.

submitted 202 days ago • 0 comments

Interview on #Sudan in today‘s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

submitted 205 days ago • 0 comments

www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/podc...

submitted 207 days ago • 0 comments

This day, 75 years ago, the Fourth Geneva Convention was adopted. Let‘s call out warring parties in Sudan, Gaza, Ukraine: or The Geneva Conventions are binding international law: Civilians must be protected. And, among other things, hostage taking, torture, starvation as means of war are forbidden.

submitted 212 days ago • 0 comments