plainlincoln.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Ahead of payrolls, it is worth remembering that the US labour market is in a potentially fragile equilibrium. We already have recessionary levels of hiring, but that is balanced by boom-time levels of firing. Will all the tariff f***wittery tip us over?

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

"...we are now the graduate training scheme of the world!" For the moment. The current herd of political leaders are doing their best to remedy that!😭

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

👇

submitted 9 days ago • 29 comments

Hey #skystorians 🗃️ I’m thinking of posting more here! ☀️A bit of an introduction: - I’m a History PhD candidate at Harvard - I have a series on my YouTube channel called History of the British Empire for Britons - I’m an advocate for the humanities and a liberal arts education

submitted 42 days ago • 3 comments

If only there had been some kind of warning - on.ft.com/40Zncmv

submitted 81 days ago • 216 comments

says it all

submitted 11 days ago • 1 comment

And the wonderful Muntpunt library, with free membership, has a large collection of nonfiction and novels in English (Spanish, Italian, French... and Dutch of course). muntpunt.be www.brusselstimes.com/1545175/book...

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Scott's Bar, Brussels. Originally the 'Leipzig Fair' department store from 1864, it was converted into a bank in 1906 by Paul Saintenoy. Facadised in the mid-80s.

submitted 14 days ago • 3 comments

Tickets are on sale now for the opening reception of my exhibit at the Chicago Maritime Museum. Thursday May 1st from 6-9pm www.chicagomaritimemuseum.org/exhibit-open...

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

The Cinquantenaire quadriga, a patriotic set piece designed by a Frenchman, sculpted by Belgians and cast in the German city of Karlsruhe. The park is to receive an equally Belgo-European update over the rest of this decade. At least, that's the plan.

submitted 14 days ago • 2 comments

In a letter published today, 100+ Jewish clergy from across Chicagoland speak out against attacks on democracy being carried out in the name of Jewish safety. Read the full letter: bit.ly/rabbisfordemocracy

submitted 14 days ago • 1 comment

Treasurys used to be a beautiful safe asset from the pov of global investors. They not only hedged US equities, but typically the USD popped higher whenever something went wrong - making them even more desirable. Now... not so much.

submitted 15 days ago • 1 comment

IRS lawyers advise that what Trump wants to do with private tax information is likely illegal. They do it anyway. IRS commissioner resigns (3rd one gone in 3 months). Hello courts: your turn. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

submitted 27 days ago • 189 comments

Bonds behaving or just bluffing? #econsky

submitted 27 days ago • 1 comment

Your economy was the envy of the world. Wtf are you doing?

submitted 28 days ago • 7 comments

Just so we’re all on the same page manufacturing was growing in the US during the Biden administration at a higher pace than any time in my life. No one had to be threatened, just consistent, stable economic policy. #manufacturing #econsky

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

I cannot emphasize enough how important it's been, when you think about the difference w.r.t. the US, that Brazilians have living historical memory of authoritarianism. We know what it's like to lose our democracy, so we could recognize it and rise up to the moment.

submitted 41 days ago • 4 comments

Unsurprisingly, the DOGE boys who are supposedly investigating fraud are actually committing fraud. Here’s their wall of receipts aka DOGE disinformation and lies.

submitted 52 days ago • 54 comments

Reminder that Congress can stop this shitshow anytime they want.

submitted 34 days ago • 317 comments

It's weird to have elected leaders who say they want to crash the economy, reinstate segregation, strip human rights and create a perpetual underclass and then have people ask why are they doing this are they bad at economics ?

submitted 34 days ago • 129 comments

Greenspan used to say look for the accounting identities—you can apply as much lipstick on the pig as you want but at the end of the day the math has to math

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

“How do you put a price on the world’s largest economy withdrawing from the global trading system? That is what investors are now trying to answer.” FT Editorial on the market rout made in the White House on.ft.com/42kwo5t

submitted 29 days ago • 3 comments

The Indeed job postings index is down 2.5 points nationally since Jan 20, DC has fallen 10.6 points--the trend is continued cooling in labor demand

submitted 28 days ago • 7 comments

During the Liz Truss fiasco we saw a very specific market dynamic, which I called the Moron Risk Premium. The currency plunged and UK yields jumped at the same time. (There was a positive correlation between gilt prices and sterling...) Hinted at a loss of confidence in UK assets

submitted 28 days ago • 2 comments

In other words, the "idiot premium" is both persistent and variable

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

Looking at the Gilt market, it’s not entirely clear to me that Starmer’s “middle way” on US relations is being priced as a lower risk approach. 10Y Gilt yield 13 bps higher on the day (so far).

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

There are some people who argue that, in aggregate, countries should be aiming for a net trade balance. I disagreed (and still do!), but I understood what they were arguing. There was nobody arguing that you need trade balance across all bilateral trading relationships. Because that's obviously mad

submitted 28 days ago • 2 comments

Medium term economic outcomes of this period could still be v bad if Trump admin negotiates a set of partial tariff rollback deals with select partners vs committing to a plan - because uncertainty engenders investment paralysis and consumer uncertainty. Do I need to increase capacity/buy now?

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

Hey, if you liked SPX at 5000 you'll love it... single shot rings out

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

Cross-asset correlations suggesting we are hitting “sell what you can” moment

submitted 28 days ago • 4 comments

NEW: Yesterday, the Justice Department sent armed marshals to warn former U.S. pardon attorney Liz Oyer not to disclose internal DOJ information during her Senate testimony. Today, Oyer is speaking out to condemn the DOJ’s actions and defend the rule of law.

submitted 29 days ago • 547 comments

I’m losing my mind here. USTR made a list of “Unfair trade practices” they’re retaliating against, complaint number 5 is that the EU cares too much about stopping illegal deforestation, complaint number 7 is that the South Americans are doing too much illegal deforestation

submitted 29 days ago • 140 comments

When hundreds of thousands of people coordinate across an entire nation to protest governmental policies, that’s not a page 18 story. That’s not a “see more in section B” situation. That’s front-page news. Period.

submitted 28 days ago • 56 comments

Asian grocery stores are a lifeline to the communities they serve. But store owners say the prospect of sweeping tariffs are threatening their ability to stock up on goods and keep prices affordable.

submitted 28 days ago • 211 comments

Something that’ll never fail to bother me about the Supreme Court is that many of the justices proclaim to be faithful keepers of our history but then fail to learn anything meaningful from it. “I’ll talk about the ancient origins of habeas while also destroying its value as an enduring principle.”

submitted 29 days ago • 122 comments

submitted 29 days ago • 44 comments

miserable. from Justice Jackson dissenting www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p... ht @stevevladeck.bsky.social @proptermalone.bsky.social

submitted 29 days ago • 1 comment

I once wrote an article for a British publication and I mentioned Brexit (just in passing, I did not even make a point about it). The journalist who had commissioned it told me "you can try but I am afraid my editor will cut it, he does not like to mention Brexit, he thinks it has been done.”

submitted 29 days ago • 10 comments

Last time he told you not "not to worry" half a million Americans died of Covid.

submitted 29 days ago • 2498 comments

THE 2ND WORST CHART FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP: In today's newsletter, I wrote about how despite the stock selloff and volatility isn't really producing that much rate relief Sub to the newsletter here: www.bloomberg.com/account/news...

submitted 29 days ago • 15 comments

"Stalin's purges: his targets are wrong, but reforms are sorely needed." I'm getting pretty sick of this genre of article tbh.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments