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profjanegreen.bsky.social
Nuffield College, Oxford Co-Director, British Election Study Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre President, British Polling Council Voting, surveys, explanation, singing …
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Some thoughts from me on our new report for @jrf-uk.bsky.social today: www.lbc.co.uk/opinion/view...

submitted 15 hours ago • 2 comments

NEW!!! Mid-life adults are more politically undecided, feel most economically insecure, and - if economically insecure - are switching party support. These are the volatile voters in today’s age-structured politics all parties need to worry about. Esp Labour. See the thread and report here:

submitted 19 hours ago • 1 comment

A useful corrective from @peterkellner.bsky.social — despite the President’s claims to the contrary, both he & his policies are polling poorly open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...

submitted 22 hours ago • 2 comments

Check out this awesome postdoc opportunity with my friend @jonathanpolk.bsky.social at Lund: lu.varbi.com/en/what:job/... So much great work to be done in this area and working with Jon would be fantastic!

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Cutting proclaimed ‘waste’ in taxpayer dollars makes sense for Trump’s coalition. Think of Kathy Cramer’s early insights on this: rural resentment of tax dollar spending elsewhere (urban spending). But making people feel unsafe in the air? Security is the number one in politics.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Election studies not only provide research data, they are a part of a democracy. With them, there can be nationwide accountability over claims of why electorates support different options and therefore what that support justifies, or not. They are a crucial litmus test of political consequences.

submitted 11 days ago • 1 comment

In which @martamiori.bsky.social becomes 'geek of the week' and I'm allegedly insider trading to get my badge. ;-)

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment

Loved these 25 points. Academics, if you want to have an impact and educate, rather than impress, this is for you!

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Tonight, our paper features on @itvpeston.bsky.social - some pretty fine graphs showing the unique efficiency of Labour's vote (and LDs), tactical voting on the left and how much the split on the right helped (and still contributes to helping) Labour. Made by the brilliant @martamiori.bsky.social!

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

You know, if you want to hear this paper reframed now as three spooky nightmares to keep Keir Starmer up at night, this is your moment... Three 'nightmares' being: 1. Split on the right and threat of Reform 2. Tactical voting and tactical unwind? 3. Anti-incumbency in Scotland

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

Frightening thought. From the removal of moderation towards the active transmission of authoritarianism.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Looking forward to this paper popping up on BBC Radio 5 this week and ITV Peston tomorrow night. The structural factors under the votes>seats relationship will matter at least as much as changes in vote intention.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

The word Orwellian is overused, but this is Orwellian. Science and knowledge production funding is being cut, while remaining funds must satisfy the unscientific ideological commitments of zealots.

submitted 14 days ago • 4 comments

I’m stating the obvious here, but I need to state it anyway. An attack on research is an attack on all research subjects because it’s all financially interdependent. And an attack on research in the US weakens the research community everywhere. It’s one big global interwoven system. Solidarity!

submitted 15 days ago • 1 comment

I see a few humanities folks who think the cuts to science research aren’t related to them. Be clear: if your univ supported hums research accounts, centers, or travel at all, at least some of that came from indirects on the grants brought in by your science colleagues.

submitted 16 days ago • 2 comments

Shall we just all pin this until someone listens??!!

submitted 16 days ago • 1 comment

If you want to win an election against far right opposition you need to bring together two groups. The activated liberals outraged by the other side and the more moderate groups who want govt to make their lives less difficult. Not by trying to win the enthusiastic supporters of the other side.

submitted 16 days ago • 46 comments

State institutions exist for people who cannot afford to take risks. They are meant to be the safety nets for when things go wrong or to build resource so they don’t. For heavens’ sake, in an age of insecurity the last thing we need is more of it! Buffers, building resilience is what is needed now.

submitted 17 days ago • 3 comments

The experiment we are about to to live through is because two businessmen are convinced that what makes the USA great is its the private sector, not understanding there are no functioning markets without functioning public institutions.

submitted 17 days ago • 7 comments

EPSA rejection: to all early career people who face this today, I want to say that I had two of them in the past, one of them was published in AJPS in the end, the other has not been submitted yet. Today, my third EPSA rejection. If you have it, too: hear me it means nothing! Enjoy your weekend 😇

submitted 18 days ago • 3 comments

there was a great yougov poll of Labour party members back in 2017 and it turns out 91% of them consider Tony Blair to be a blairite, which is lower than I thought it would be

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

Tony Blair one of the Blairites! Made me smile….

submitted 18 days ago • 2 comments