reziemba.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Really inconsistent messaging on exemptions… The president is open to hearing about additional exemptions. He always has open dialogue, and he’ll always do … what he believes is right for the American people,” but apparently no exemptions to reciprocal tariffs. thelogic.co/news/automak...

submitted 11 hours ago • 0 comments

The episode has been damaging to US credibility, predictability of supply chains and yes corruption/and power concentration (whose lobbying works). Plus in short term one month reprieve only increases effort to maximize imports in short-term widening trade deficit

submitted 15 hours ago • 0 comments

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submitted 16 hours ago • 0 comments

Aaaand we are back to having the sovereign fund seeded by tariff revenue… that same tariff revenue that is supposed to pay for tax cuts and which would presumably be needed to compensate US industry suffering from said tariffs and other country retaliation? x.com/deitaone/sta...

submitted 17 hours ago • 5 comments

The potential auto industry reprieve would buy time yes but still sends message that the end of integrated north American energy industry is nigh. Plus one month extensions and last minute changes make it super tough to plan, encourage front-loading hoarding and uncertainty

submitted 17 hours ago • 0 comments

👇

submitted 17 hours ago • 0 comments

Lots energy content in trump’s speech so far- exiting the climate deal and removing environmental regulation. - drill baby drill and energy emergency with frame of lowering costs - Alaska LNG gets a shout out as do Japan and south korea for interest investing.

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

A good perspective on energy impacts of the north american tariffs @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social heatmap.news/politics/gre...

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Its dangerous to write about tariffs these days… one keeps having to revise. That said what does seem clear is that more tariffs are coming and the predictable planning environment for cross-border trade is behind us open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Its a sign of the times and information flow that it was on the instagram of one of my favorite yarn stores that I first saw the confirmation that USG backed off from the de minimis restrictions on Canada and Mexico, as already done on China. Reforms to de minimis levels still likely eventually

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

USG realizing that tariffs hurt US content goods and leave auto sector etc at worse position than competitors in Asia etc? Maybe realizing that tariffing trading partners = harder chance to have common tariffs vs China

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

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submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

This hits a little too close to home- as an economic statecraft comparativist, too many of my areas of expertise/interest are colliding/coinciding

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

OFAC license out that gives Chevron and associated oil service companies 30 days to wind down operations - notably a shorter time frame than that imposed in first trump administration. No public comments on the special licenses but presume also truncated ofac.treasury.gov/media/934026...

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

There are a lot of agricultural products in the canadian counter-tariffs list, esp meat, dairy, alcohol but also home goods, tires and more. Total worth ~ $30b (so less of bilateral trade than what US targeting) and only items meeting rules of origin (not reexports) www.canada.ca/en/departmen...

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

Good piece on syrian debt liabilities and a case for restructuring. The challenge is that most of debt due to Russia and Iran rather than Western sovereigns or private actors. Theres a lot of talk about sanctions less about debt. t.co/Hv8hcv92SJ

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

New trade policy report to Congress from @USTradeRep - highlights focus on “production economy” ie reshoring for its benefits for wages, jobs, innovation. Does not suggest revenue as a driver. Also notably highlights USMCA, japan deals and WTO engagement in Trump 1 as wins t.co/ZdGi76GCMR

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Tariffs are coming, says US admin, but what level and on whom? I joined @CNBC Asia street signs to chat tariffs, macro and market effects. Given macro effects, low conviction baseline is that full 25% doesnt come into effect now, but that China ones do plus metal ones www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Tariffs coming but maybe not 25%? Uncertainty re levels also raises qs whether different products might have different levels or exemptions. This could vary impact,response. Broader point is that USG will take view tariffs as coercive tool work. Lutnick in particular seems to be proponent.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Nice to be heading back to Chicago this time for #ISA2025 and discussions on sanctions, other econ statecraft tools and much more. DM if you want to catch up on these or if you just want to grab a drink

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

The details on admin’s timber plans including extensive measures aimed at boosting US harvesting. Didnt realize self-sufficiency in timber was such a high priority. Wonder what replanting goals also considered?

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

doing my small part to consume Canadian goods by taking the long way to #ISA2025 Am still not sure of this marketing strategy of Duty free @yvrairport - point seems to be take advantage of USD strength (in fine print) but then why bother with the Canadian flag?

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

OFAC @USTreasury still working on how to implement wind down operations re Venezuela energy licenses per new FAQ. Policy not decided yet by WH/State. Current license may not have been auto-renewed but at present likely still valid 5 months ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/1218

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Some thoughts on the tariff set to come into effect in the coming days. Current low conviction hypothesis is broad national security tariffs bunted due to progress and discussion on common external tariffs, but sectoral ones and China ones come into effect. open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

I spent part of this weekend at the vancouver international wine festival where featured region was US west coast. This led to rather odd mood given uncertainty re tariffs and likelihood of countertarrifs. Beyond that is issue of bans, Bc liquor store only announced plans to ban red state alcohol.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Useful context to this framing from Bessent on Canada matching Mexican offer to consider matching US tariffs on China. Canada did match US tariffs on some Chinese products in Biden admin (Evs, steel etc) but that was the last admin. A harder sell w Us on econ warpath www.ctvnews.ca/world/trumps...

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment