richarddriley.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

NEW PAPER in @bmj.com where we discuss the rationale, challenges, and approaches to providing uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models www.bmj.com/content/388/... #StatsSky #MLSky #EpiSky #AI #machinelearning

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

NEW BMJ PAPER "Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches" - most models provide just a risk estimate - we argue for presenting associated uncertainty too - includes pros, cons, PPIE & methods Hope helpful! www.bmj.com/content/388/...

submitted 11 days ago • 2 comments

Places still available for our online Statistical Methods for Risk Prediction and Prognostic models course. Registration closes 25th Feb. www.birmingham.ac.uk/study/short-...

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

TRIPOD+AI (Expanded E&E): "If uncertainty intervals for individual prediction model outputs have been presented then provide details on how this was done" (www.bmj.com/content/385/...) 👇This new paper provides insight into uncertainty of risk estimate on decision making www.bmj.com/content/388/...

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

NEW PAPER On quantifying uncertainty in your predictions. Excellently led by the group of @richarddriley.bsky.social www.bmj.com/content/388/...

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

NEW BMJ PAPER "Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches" - most models provide just a risk estimate - we argue for presenting associated uncertainty too - includes pros, cons, PPIE & methods Hope helpful! www.bmj.com/content/388/...

submitted 11 days ago • 2 comments

Just published a couple of pre-prints for those interested in sample size calculations for precise and fair individual-level predictions ... (not the end of the story, but a useful contribution we hope): Binary outcomes: arxiv.org/abs/2407.09293 Survival outcomes: arxiv.org/abs/2501.14482

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment

Applications are open for our William Guy Lectureships! The theme is Statistics and AI - its role in daily life, ethical issues, & environmental impact. If you're a data professional with a passion for inspiring the next generation about stats submit a talk proposal! rss.org.uk/news-publica...

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

My wife’s short film’ Opening Up’ is coming home to Macclesfield this Friday 7th February And entry is free! Part of the inaugural film festival at the beautiful Monocle Cafe www.eventbrite.com/e/the-monocl...

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

While I see (again) many new users, here is the metaresearch and open sciencff et starting pack 1. Please repost.

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

While I see (again) many new persons here, here is the meta-research and open science starting pack 2.

submitted 26 days ago • 2 comments

The Whoovers with Derby Quad are delighted to bring the East Midlands favourite convention for fans of the BBC’s Doctor Who, back to QUAD Sat 30 Aug 2025. @stephenhatcher.bsky.social @andydrewz.bsky.social @cygnusalphaevents.bsky.social

submitted 94 days ago • 1 comment

MEMTAB 2025: we've added a 3rd short course option (just £50) "The Potential and Pitfalls of Predicting Treatment Effects" to be led by Prof. David Kent & Dr. David Van Klaveren Details here: uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...

submitted 33 days ago • 0 comments

Just to say THANK YOU to all who submitted abstracts to MEMTAB 2025 - we had an incredible 141 abstract submissions & are now busy reviewing these. We will be in touch with decisions in early February Registration (including short course booking) is open uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...

submitted 34 days ago • 0 comments

Interesting paper by Sarah Markham informatics.bmj.com/content/32/1...

submitted 34 days ago • 1 comment

Last chance! Submissions close at midnight

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

Last day for abstract submissions to MEMTAB 2025! uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

5 days left to submit an abstract for MEMTAB 2025 - we won't be extending after this.

submitted 42 days ago • 0 comments

Really excited about this speaker (part of a session on PPIE within methodology research for prediction models & test evaluation) uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...

submitted 42 days ago • 0 comments

MEMTAB 2025 news: - abstract deadline extended until Friday 17th January Thanks to those who have submitted already! We hope the extra week will encourage even more submissions. uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...

submitted 45 days ago • 0 comments

This Christmas, 5years on from the publication of the ICH E9 Addendum on #Estimands @suziecro.bsky.social & I describe a fictitious, festive #RCT conducted by Santa to answer the question: does a reindeer’s pre-flight meal impact performance? #trials #clinicaltrials link.springer.com/article/10.1...

submitted 70 days ago • 2 comments

Delighted to hear this. Ian is one of the top statisticians in the world - indeed, I'd say the very best all-rounder in terms of theoretical knowledge, software development, applied and methodological rigour, problem solving and - crucially - kindness & humility. A shining light. Well done Ian!

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

Meet our next #MEMTAB2025 speaker: Dr. Mohsen Sadatsafavi! @msafavi.bsky.social An epidemiologist bridging clinical & policy decision-making through innovative Value of Information analysis. Expert in healthcare efficiency & uncertainty quantification. Learn more: https://buff.ly/4gTUtGJ

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

MEMTAB 2025 update: Abstract deadline soon: 12th January uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/... Attend pre-conference courses: just £50 when registering uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/... Social events included in registration (including live band 😀): uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

We're delighted to share a glowing recommendation from the eminent Prof. Harrell, for our upcoming MEMTAB 2025 Conference! ☺️ Secure your spot today and don't miss out on the opportunity to engage with pioneering research and innovative ideas!

submitted 90 days ago • 0 comments

We'd love lots of people on this course 👇

submitted 48 days ago • 0 comments

🗣️ Last call for #MEMTAB2025 abstracts! Just one week remaining to submit your work for consideration. Whether it's a talk or poster, showcase your research alongside leading experts in the field. Deadline: Sunday 12th Jan Submission guidelines & portal:

submitted 50 days ago • 0 comments

MEMTAB 2025 - last week to submit your abstracts! Showcase your methodology innovation for how to undertake research of tests, models and biomarkers for diagnosis, prognosis and monitoring uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...

submitted 49 days ago • 0 comments

📊 Master systematic reviews of prognosis studies at #MEMTAB2025 pre-conference course! Join Dr Damen & Prof Moons on April 29th for comprehensive training in prognosis reviews from question through to meta-analysis. £50 for conference delegates! Details & registration:

submitted 49 days ago • 0 comments

Excited to introduce Dr Paula Dhiman as our next #MEMTAB2025 speaker! A Senior Research Fellow at the University of Oxford specializing in medical statistics & ML prediction models. Current CRUK-funded researcher & Chair of QResearch Scientific Committee. Learn more: https://buff.ly/4gTUtGJ

submitted 51 days ago • 0 comments

Why not start the new year with an abstract submission for our 2025 International Conference in Edinburgh? 20-minute talk, 5-minute rapid-fire + poster presentation options are all available rss.org.uk/news-publica...

submitted 52 days ago • 0 comments

We're excited to welcome Dr Xiaoxuan Liu @xiaoliu.bsky.social as our third invited speaker at #MEMTAB2025! A leader in AI & Digital Health, Dr Liu brings expertise in responsible AI innovation, regulatory science, and digital health technologies. More info: https://buff.ly/4gTUtGJ

submitted 52 days ago • 0 comments

Christmas gift no. 5 MEMTAB 2025 pre-conference courses (April 29th) • £50 with registration Choose from: • "An Introduction to Clinical Prediction Models and Sample Size Calculations for Development & Evaluation" • "Systematic Reviews of Prognosis studies" uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...

submitted 68 days ago • 0 comments

Absent Friends - my annual round up of the heroes of UK science-fiction who left us this year - will be on Radio 4 Extra at 4.45pm on Dec 29th (repeated 12.45am and on BBC Sounds thereafter). It’s heartening that they continue to allow me to perform this sad duty. #bbcradio4extra

submitted 87 days ago • 4 comments

Fantastic opportunity 👇

submitted 65 days ago • 0 comments

Christmas gift no. 5 MEMTAB 2025 pre-conference courses (April 29th) • £50 with registration Choose from: • "An Introduction to Clinical Prediction Models and Sample Size Calculations for Development & Evaluation" • "Systematic Reviews of Prognosis studies" uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...

submitted 68 days ago • 0 comments

Christmas 2024 Gift no. 4 NEW VIDEO: "IPD Meta-Analysis: Two-stage or Not Two-Stage? That is the question..." youtu.be/WFSAfouhB-8 - guidance for when to choose a one-stage rather than a two-stage approach, & vice versa. - ideas showcased using real examples (no equations) I hope useful!

submitted 69 days ago • 1 comment

Looking forward to visiting the Biostatistics group in Leicester today (my original academic home ❤️) to speak at their Christmas party about: “On the 12th Day of Christmas, a statistician sent to me … a BMJ rejection and an episode of Doctor Who”

submitted 69 days ago • 0 comments

New work in preprint! "Performance evaluation of predictive AI models to support medical decisions: Overview and guidance". Under the wings of the STRATOS initiative. But @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social said it better already 😜 arxiv.org/abs/2412.10288

submitted 70 days ago • 0 comments

Come and join me tour the Imperial White City Campus! Very grateful to have the opportunity to collaborate with the comms team on this. Such a lovely creative outlet www.instagram.com/reel/DDowWMh...

submitted 70 days ago • 0 comments

Christmas 2024 Gift no. 3 NEW VIDEO: "Christmas Day of The Doctor" (8 mins) Are #DoctorWho Christmas episodes good for health? What's the evidence from a BMJ study? What's the impact of the work? And what's the online feedback been? All is revealed .... enjoy 😜 www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtQ5...

submitted 70 days ago • 1 comment

In our recent paper "public engagement with research reproducibility", we explain, with a simple example -cooking meringue Xmas trees- "what research reproducibility means". A very fun 🧵 about science... plos.io/49z4ZQy

submitted 74 days ago • 2 comments

Christmas 2024 gifts for 'significant' others 🎄 2. Amazing invited speakers for MEMTAB 2025! - see uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/... Invited talks will include - standards of AI & imaging for prediction - regulation of tests/models - PPIE in methods research - value of information + more 😀

submitted 74 days ago • 1 comment

Christmas 2024 gifts for 'significant' others 🎄 2. Amazing invited speakers for MEMTAB 2025! - see uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/... Invited talks will include - standards of AI & imaging for prediction - regulation of tests/models - PPIE in methods research - value of information + more 😀

submitted 74 days ago • 1 comment