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rob-mcclelland.bsky.social
Senior Fellow Tax Policy Center. Previously chief Price and Index Number Division, BLS; Senior analyst CBO. Opinions my own.
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Nothing has happened yet, but even unsuccessful attempts to alter government statistics would be deeply troubling.

Vance is threatening to isolate Russia from the global economy and Trump is promising to isolate the United States from the global economy.

More tariff threats www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

The Tax Policy Center estimates that the change in revenues (2025-2035) from tariffs on imports from Mexico & Canada starting March 1 and on China starting Feb 4 would raise $1.2 trillion, of which $328 billion comes from tariffs on imports from China taxpolicycenter.org/model-estima...

Tariffs...

Wow, that was fast. Irving Energy, company that provides propane/fuel oil customers in New England, says it will pass on the full 10% tariff cost to all their customers immediately (reposting with fixed figure - meant to say 10%, not 30%)

A new analysis from the Tax Policy Center estimates that imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would reduce after-tax incomes by nearly 1% in 2026, costing the average household the equivalent of $930 in lost income. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...

Measured policy uncertainty up, waiting for tariffs econbrowser.com/archives/202... #econsky #tariffs

The Tax Policy Center estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would reduce after-tax incomes by about 1 percent and that imports would fall by 40% by 2026. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...

On Tuesday Trump said he would impose a 10% tariff on China. But in 2023, the U.S. collected $44.4 billion in duties on $420.8 billion of imports, for an effective rate of 10.5%. A 10% tariff on those imports would have collected only $42.1 billion.

To a first approximation, every domestic policy problem is a housing policy problem

Economists, if you’re at ASSA meetings, come join me, @jasonfurman.bsky.social, and other panelists as we discuss the Trumpian economic agenda, tomorrow (Jan 3) in San Francisco. Hilton Plaza A 10:15.

Going to #ASSA2025 and looking forward to catching up with old friends. We have a great LERA session on unions and racial/ethnic equality on Sat. at 2:30. Maybe I'll see you there.

Graduate fellowship opportunity at NBER. Application deadline 1/16. Comes with community and mentorship. @heidiwilliams.bsky.social @mclem.org www.nber.org/graduate-fel...

this abstract is INSANE

Have a marvellous Christmas, Bluesky folks!🎄 Thoughts & prayers with those caught up in an unfolding situation in LA.

Attending #ASSA2025? Want to know how to navigate your options with respect to hotels, food, & sessions given SF hotel workers' strike? @shirkandsteal.bsky.social @jennifercohen.bsky.social & I have you covered. Blog w/sign up for email updates. #EconSky aaronsojourner.org/hotel-worker...

We thank the reviewers for their suggestions and believe they have substantially improved the paper

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in November and were up 2.7 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and fuel, rose 0.3 percent from October and 3.3 percent from a year ago. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...

Charts! Consumer price inflation picked up modestly in November. That's true by basically any measure -- headline or core, monthly or annualized. #NumbersDay #EconSky

What will Republicans prioritize when they regain their government trifecta next month? A tax overhaul? Energy production? Border security? Nope, writes @crampell.bsky.social. "The GOP’s first order of business: getting rid of math." wapo.st/3ZmsKXu

Many great takeaways on increasing families' access to high quality child care from multiple state researcher-agency partnerships in this set of briefs published @urbaninstitute.bsky.social. www.urban.org/policy-cente...

Congressional Budget Office finds that allowing 2017 tax cuts to expire as scheduled would benefit the economy in the long term. Higher marginal tax rates would hamper growth through 2028, but lower deficits would improve growth starting in 2029 www.cbo.gov/publication/...

Donald Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on China. Recently my colleagues at TPC and I published a brief that provides some context. taxpolicycenter.org/briefs/tarif...

The SF Fed has a new data indicators page providing the contributions by product category to CPI, thanks to @hamza-econ.bsky.social www.frbsf.org/research-and...

Trump, tariffs and prices / GS