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rubashkin.bsky.social
Deputy editor, Inside Elections
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đź‘€Newsy tidbit in today's Inside Elections: Keep an eye on Cait Conley in the highly competitive NY-17 (currently held by Mike Lawler). She's a West Point/MIT/Harvard grad with 9 years of Army special ops service who most recently worked cybersecurity for the Biden admin.

The disconnect I feel working away from DC for even a little while is crazy because what do you mean the author of Playbook is now a Brit who doesn’t know who FDR was and copies whole paragraphs from Wikipedia?

Nancy Mace is continuing her campaign against new colleague Sarah McBride, the first transgender member of Congress, by traveling to McBride's home state of Delaware to hold a press conference with the state GOP.

Holy cow! Florida says it accidentally paid a healthcare company $5.7 million instead of $50k. That company's CEO, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, then loaned herself $6.2 million to win a congressional race — by 5 votes. The previous year she had made just $86k. www.tallahassee.com/story/news/l...

Holy cow! Florida says it accidentally paid a healthcare company $5.7 million instead of $50k. That company's CEO, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, then loaned herself $6.2 million to win a congressional race — by 5 votes. The previous year she had made just $86k. www.tallahassee.com/story/news/l...

I cobbled together a quick and not at all-exhaustive list of elections reporters, analysts, operatives and analysts - if you're interested in this stuff please follow and share widely! go.bsky.app/A8RNWyo

So in recent days the Post has lost: -Matea Gold -Josh Dawsey -Ashley Parker -Michael Scherer -Tyler Pager -LeeAnn Caldwell -Shane Harris -cartoonist Ann Telnaes -opinion writer Chuck Lane +resignations by ed board members Kagan, Hoffman, Roberts, Mitra Right before a new admin takes office…

Wow! Two and a half years after I wrote a big investigation into her, the House Ethics Committee has released an OCE report into Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. Turns out Cherfilus-McCormick personally intervened to hide the role of a key political operative, Mark Goodrich, who I was writing on.

Jimmy Carter and Nigerian leader Olusegun Obasanjo in 1977

How had I not seen this clip of Harris before?

The 7,309 Vote Majority: How Republicans won the closest House majority in decades Democrats' 3 closest losses (IA1, CO8, PA7) were by just 7,309 votes. Out of 147,675,540 House votes nationwide, that's just 0.005% - smallest share since at least 1994. www.insideelections.com/news/article...

The 7,309 Vote Majority: How Republicans won the closest House majority in decades Democrats' 3 closest losses (IA1, CO8, PA7) were by just 7,309 votes. Out of 147,675,540 House votes nationwide, that's just 0.005% - smallest share since at least 1994. www.insideelections.com/news/article...

While we’re on the topic of Spotify sucking can we spare some time for asking why there’s literally no screen on the app where you can just look at recent album releases? All they have is the 10-spot “New Releases” carousel that doesn’t differentiate albums and singles.

🚨Final House update: That’s all, folks! With GOP Rep. John Duarte’s concession in CA-13 to Democrat Adam Gray, the final unsettled House race of 2024 is in the books. Final results 220 Republican seats 215 Democratic seats D+1 net gain (IE range was R+1-D+9)

In CA-13 Democrat Adam Gray is declaring victory as the final tally shows him ahead of Rep. John Duarte by 187 votes. There’s still the possibility of a recount and litigation with a margin that narrow. This would be a Democratic flip.

HOUSE UPDATE: And Then There Was 1 220 GOP seats 214 Democratic 1 race uncalled With an AP call in IA-01 for Republicans and Steel’s concession in CA45, there’s one House race left: CA13, where Democrat Adam Gray took the lead in counting last night. 220R-215D most likely

🚨Democrat Adam Gray takes the lead in CA13 — if he holds it, this would be a flip for Democrats and would be their 215th seat. This matchup was the second closest of 2022 and could be the closest of 2024.

For @InsideElections, I took a look at repeat House candidates! Both parties love running candidates who fell just short last cycle, and both parties love bashing the other team's repeats as "losers." But how well do repeats do? This year, not so well... www.insideelections.com/news/article...

Lauren Boebert is on Cameo charging $250/video. I'm skeptical it’s allowed under the House rules about outside income but if Boebert can get away with it there's real money to be made on the platform. Sarah Palin made $211,529 on Cameo in 2021, which she had to disclose when she ran for Congress.

Bronx Rep. Ritchie Torres sounding very much like a candidate for governor in 2026 — he won a crowded Democratic primary in 2020.

Utah Sen. John Curtis is a real interesting one to watch over the next few years. Took Romney’s seat, is from the least Trumpy Solid Republican state, beat a Trump-backed candidate in the primary. Oh and he was the former chairman of the Utah County *Democratic* Party in the 2000s.

With yesterday’s race call in Alaska, here’s where things stand in the House: 219 GOP seats 213 Democratic seats 3 races uncalled (CA13, CA45, IA1) IA1 is in a recount but unlikely to flip to Dems. Dem’s lead in CA45 is growing. CA13 is down to the wire. 220R-215D or 221R-214D

Republican Nick Begich has won Alaska’s House seat after the ranked choice voting instant runoff tabulation. He defeats Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.

With the race call in OH-09, here’s the latest House update! 218 GOP seats 213 Dem seats 4 uncalled races (AK-AL, CA13, CA45, IA1) AK-AL looks the best for Republicans, followed by IA1. CA13 is a pure tossup. Dems lead in CA45. Still no net change to D+1 likeliest outcome.

🚨The last truly toss-up House race is now a 227-vote race. The rematch between Republican Rep. John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray is once again coming down to the wire. In 2022, Duarte won by 564 votes. This would be the closest House result of the year!

One notable feature of the 2024 election is the disappearance of Republicans in Democratic districts. The only GOP House members in for-sure Harris-won seats will be: 1. Don Bacon It’s TBD if Harris carried NY17 (Lawler), CA22 (Valadao), CA40 (Kim), PA1 (Fitzpatrick).

The vote to repeal Alaska’s ranked choice instant runoff election system is failing by 192 votes. The unique system is how Sen. Lisa Murkowski beat a Trump-backed challenger in 2022 and how Mary Peltola won her House seat (though she looks like she’ll lose this year).

I cobbled together a quick and not at all-exhaustive list of elections reporters, analysts, operatives and analysts - if you're interested in this stuff please follow and share widely! go.bsky.app/A8RNWyo

Latest House update: GOP leads in 218 Dems lead in 212 Uncalled 5 (AK-AL, CA13, CA45, IA1, OH9) Dems lead in OH9 and CA45, while Republicans are well situated in AK-AL (RCV) and IA1 (recount). CA13 is coming down to the wire. Still either D+1 overall or no net change.

It looks like Oregon 5 Democrat Janelle Bynum will win her race with a lower share of the vote than any other member of Congress next year: 47.6 percent.

Selzer fizzles! "Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities..." www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinio...

🚨Democrat Derek Tran now leads GOP Rep. Michelle Steel in CA-45 — by 46 votes! This would be a Republican to Democratic flip in the House.

Washington 3 being one of the only seats in the country to swing toward Harris, and by more than any other district, is fascinating (and clearly a factor in Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez’s still-impressive 4-point win over Joe Kent). Per calculations from @drewsav.bsky.social

Latest House update: GOP 218 Dems 211 Uncalled 6 (AK-AL, CA13, CA45, IA1, ME2, OH9) Dems lead in ME2 and OH9, and look decent in CA45. CA13 will be a nail biter, and Republicans are favored in AK-AL and IA1. Looking increasingly like no net change or D+1 overall.

When RFK was running for president he said he would stop research on drug development and infectious diseases for eight years.

When RFK was running for president he said he would stop research on drug development and infectious diseases for eight years.

Congratulations Senate Majority Leader John Thune

In a world where Gaetz is confirmed — gotta believe that’s still unlikely — the GOP House majority could drop temporarily to 217-215 (if Dems win in CA13/45), where a single GOP defection would deadlock the House.