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saschaostanina.bsky.social
Political & Security Risk Analyst Specialised in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, & the South Caucasus
169 posts 181 followers 73 following
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#Europe won't have a seat at the table for #Ukraine peace talks, Donald Trump's envoy Kellogg said, after the #US sent a questionnaire to European capitals to ask what they could contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine: www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Im Umfeld von Selenskyj wächst der Eindruck, dass sich Trump als Vermittler und nicht als Verbündeter der Ukraine sieht. Wenn sich der wichtigste Verbündete aus Eigennutz selbst zum Schiedsrichter ernennt, droht eine herbeigeführte Katastrophe. Weil Russland immer Regeln bricht.

In #Ukraine, #Russia occupies 41 coal deposits (60% of reserves), nine oil deposits (11%), 27 areas with gas deposits (about 20%), 42% of metal deposits, & 33% of rare earth metals & minerals. In other words, resources worth $12.5T are under occupation: ubn.news/almost-half-...

Just have the EU issue Eurobonds and have the EU issue the damn contracts. It’s all very straightforward. European leaders are avoiding the obvious way forward because their MFAs/MODs don’t want to cede authority to Brussels. All very petty.

🇪🇺 promises more defence spending, but orders are still missing. 🇫🇮 155mm artillery producer Patria has been waiting for contracts since last spring. Once contracts arrive, delivery will still take a year: www.euractiv.com/section/defe...

Since 2022, 🇬🇧& 🇩🇪 Storm Shadow & Taurus production lines remain idle. 🇫🇷 maintained a SCALP-EG production line running at <100 units/year. Instead of ramping up, Europe relied on 🇺🇸, but Biden slowed missile deliveries to 🇺🇦, & Trump may not restart them: theins.ru/en/opinion/f...

It's taken Russians two years to advance 10km (6miles) from Bakhmut to the town of Chasiv Yar. After a thriving pre-war population of 13,000, the town now resembles everything Russia has ever touched, with only 600 residents somehow clinging to life. This is the Russian world

#SouthKorea: Vessels belonging to #Russia's Pacific Fleet were detected moving about 1,500 #NorthKorea|n special forces troops to Vladivostok for training for combat in #Urkaine. The troops have been supplied with 🇷🇺 military uniforms, weapons, & fake IDs: www.reuters.com/world/south-...

The IMF will become the first major international financial body to send its official mission to #Russia since the invasion of #Ukraine in 2022. An IMF delegation will visit Moscow for meetings with Russian officials until Oct. 1. www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...

The @EU_Commission is considering postponing setting out plans for its €1.2 trillion 7-year budget until after #Germany's 2025 election to gauge the preferences of the new 🇩🇪 government on such sensitive questions as issuing common debt to fund 🇪🇺 defence www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Former #Italy PM #MarioDraghi urges boosting EU defence by increasing access to EU cash, easing merger rules regardless of competition concerns, prioritising European solutions, and establishing a centralised EU procurement agency: www.politico.eu/article/mari...

These #Russia|n military installations are legitimate targets for #Ukraine's strikes. Yet, 🇺🇦 is being artificially restricted from targeting them. "Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Russian oligarch Fridman has filed a $16bn claim against Luxembourg over its decision to freeze his assets after he was placed on an EU sanctions list. His legal team includes Cherie Blair, the wife of former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair www.politico.eu/article/mikh...

Exports from the #EU with #Kazakhstan, #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Georgia, #Turkey and the other #CentralAsia countries increased by €46bn in 2023, up 50% from 2021. That was equivalent to 3/4 of the drop in Europe’s exports to #Russia from 2021 to 2023 www.economist.com/europe/2024/...

Thanks to #Ukraine's Kursk offensive, #Germany has realised that using 🇩🇪-made weapons inside #Russia doesn’t make 🇩🇪 a party to the war. It’s the perfect time for Chancellor Scholz to reconsider and send Taurus missiles to 🇺🇦. No, this doesn't require sending 🇩🇪 soldiers to 🇺🇦

Ukrainian troops are still getting outfired by Russian artillery by a ratio of about 8 to 1. That's down from about 20 to 1 before Congress passed the $60 billion U.S. military aid bill for #Ukraine in June, Ukrainian officials said. foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/14/u...

#Germany's Cologne-Wahn military base next to #Cologne airport has been sealed off & 5,500 of soldiers & civilians working there advised not to drink tap water after someone forced their way into the premises. Authorities investigate possible sabotage www.reuters.com/world/europe...

#Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe w/ missiles that can carry conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. 🇷🇺's 2008-14 files include a target list in Europe & highlight the advantages of using ☢️strikes at an early stage www.ft.com/content/237e...

#Germany’s government could take stakes in arms-makers & defence projects that it deems strategically important - already allowed in principle - more frequently, according to a draft paper written by the economy and defence ministries. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Germany is to permanently station a liaison officer in the US’ Indo-Pacific Command (nice job, as based in Hawaii) table.media/security/new...

#Turkey is the 2nd biggest source, behind #China, of high-priority, US-origin goods sent to #Russia, according to the #US Treasury. Turkey’s exports of military-linked goods to Russia or its intermediaries registered $85mn in H1 2024 ($27mn in H1 2022) www.ft.com/content/e7e4...

The missing middle of technology investment—insufficient funding for commercial production—is evident in each and every one of these failures, but the loss of expertise is an added dimension www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...

This summer, #Russia’s air force parked dozens of glide-bomb carriers, Su-34s, (out of 100 in service) in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base just 160km from #Ukraine. The Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire ATACMs at the base. The US said no www.forbes.com/sites/davida...

As the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System has shifted its delivery date from 2040 to 2050, if not beyond, Europe’s two main heavy-armour manufacturers, Rheinmetall and KNDS, are touting at least five main battle tank designs to fill the gap www.iiss.org/online-analy...

The French army, which spent past decades fighting in Afghanistan and the West African Sahel region, had not loaded military equipment onto trains for about 20 years. Train station managers at SNCF, #France's national railway company, were also in the dark www.politico.eu/article/fren...

Britain’s nuclear submarine engineers use software designed in #Russia & #Belarus. The firm that outsourced the work thought to disguise the workers' locations by giving them names of dead Brits. Further defence capabilities could have been compromised. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08...

Bloomberg:🚨The first delivery of the F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine

The US Air Force needs to rethink how small, low-cost drones could change the definition of air superiority. Small drones have become a defining feature of the Russo-Ukraine war, with both sides fielding drones & quadcopters for strikes & reconnaissance www.airandspaceforces.com/small-drones...

The #US is not ready for a major war, says a bipartisan commission. In 2018, the previous commission had warned that America “might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against #China or #Russia”. This time the language is starker www.economist.com/united-state...

Italian defence group Leonardo would be “open to” #SaudiArabia joining #Italy-#Japan-#UK's Global Combat Air Programme to build an advanced fighter jet. Saudi Arabia could bring industrial capability & some fresh labour resources as a potential partner: www.ft.com/content/237c...

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine www.defense.gov/News/Release...

Telecom companies in France, including at least SFR, Bouygues & Free, have been targeted by acts of vandalism. The fibre optic network had been cut; fixed & mobile lines had been affected, mere days after a wave of sabotage hit the country's rail network www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Russia launched 38 Shahed kamikaze drones at Ukraine overnight, three of which strayed into Romania's airspace. As the Russian drones were attacking ports in the Odesa region, residents of Romania's Tulcea area heard multiple blasts www.politico.eu/article/roma...

Despite Western sanctions, Russia still procures components from abroad & enhance its weapons production. Read @rusi.bsky.social's paper by Jack Watling & Gary Somerville on replacing scattered sanctions with a coordinated disruption of Russian procurement schemes static.rusi.org/methodology-...

The casualty rate is growing exponentially: 'When Ukraine was firing 10,000 shells per day, 35-45 🇺🇦soldiers were killed daily & about 250-300 were wounded. When the daily fire fell to half that, over 100 soldiers were killed per day & at least 1,000 were wounded' www.reuters.com/investigates...

#China’s & #Belarus‘s troops have simulated the capture of an airport in an exercise near the border with #Poland & #Ukraine – days after Nato denounced Beijing as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war effort amp-scmp-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.scmp...

It hurts so badly! 🫣 „The German armed forces and the Ministry of Defence have long ignored the relevance of nuclear deterrence. in the German MoD only two (!) of the approximately 2,500 employees deal explicitly with nuclear issues“ www.defensenews.com/opinion/2024...

#Russia’s biggest emerging problem is with tanks & infantry fighting vehicles, crucial to any offensive ground operations. At current rates of attrition,🇷🇺 tank & IFV refurbishment from storage will have reached a “critical point of exhaustion” by H2 2025 www.economist.com/europe/2024/...

#Germany's aid to #Ukraine will be reportedly cut to €4bn in 2025 from around €8bn billion euros in 2024. Germany hopes Ukraine will be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with the $50bn in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets www.reuters.com/world/europe...

#China and #Russia have conducted 66 joint #military exercises since 2003. This trend of more frequent & complex land, air, sea, & cyber exercises, often near disputed territories, raises serious questions about global security www.iss.europa.eu/content/rehe...

Can you guess who this other key NATO ally is, @POTUS? “Britain has to convince France and another key @NATO ally before it can allow Ukraine to fire its Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets inside Russia as the UK is unable to act alone, sources claim” www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...

#France, #Germany, #Italy & #Poland agreed to develop ground-launched cruise missiles with a range beyond 500 km (310 miles). France suggested basing the weapon on its existing naval cruise missile MdCN, made by the producer of Taurus, Storm Shadow & Scalp www.reuters.com/world/europe...

A Russian Navy ship normally based in Novorossiysk, has docked in the port of Ochamchire in #Georgia’s #Russia-occupied Abkhazia region. The base is already home to a few FSB patrol boats. This is the first significant naval ship visit observed in Abkhazia www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

The U.S. and Germany foiled a Russian plot to assassinate the chief executive of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger. The plan to kill the CEO was part of a series of Russian plots to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe www.politico.eu/article/russ...

A major review of UK defence will take place in "less than a year", the new defence secretary said. Helping @NATO defend Europe from Russian aggression will also become a higher priority than sending military ships, jets & soldiers on exercises to Asia news-sky-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/news.sky...

In 2023 @NATO leaders adopted specific new regional defence plans. However, the new plans still don’t have enough capabilities to make the strategy operational & don’t include Sweden & Finland. An additional 35-50 brigades would be needed to make them work www.euractiv.com/section/defe...

#Russia's missiles, such as the one that destroyed a Kyiv children’s hospital, relies on western-designed components, showing the Kremlin’s success at evading sanctions. Russia is making nearly 8 times more Kh-101s missiles than prior to the 2022 invasion www.ft.com/content/ef46...

In the coming days @NATO will announce a new military command in Germany led by a three-star general for training and equipping Ukrainian troops, and appoint a senior representative in Kyiv to deepen #Ukraine's relationship with the alliance www.reuters.com/world/us/whi...

#China‘s & #Belarus‘s troops started joint military exercises near the Belarusian city of Brest, five kilometers from the border with #Poland. The maneuvers, codenamed Eagle Assault, will last until July 19. www.politico.eu/article/chin...