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scottlincicome.bsky.social
@CatoInstitute Vice President (Econ/Trade), @DukeLaw adjunct, @TheDispatch newsletter-er. CH❤️RTS. You didn't read the article, did you?
732 posts 8,934 followers 183 following
Prolific Poster

"China’s local governments are rushing to issue bonds to refinance hidden debt, further tightening liquidity in the financial system." https://buff.ly/4kqNvv1

"Canada Revives Old Oil Pipeline Ideas Amid U.S. Trade Spat"

"Aluminum Imports: Canada's Vital Role in U.S. Supply" https://buff.ly/41f40Bz

"When the World's Largest Countries Will Hit Peak Population" https://buff.ly/3XdzrLl

"Visualizing Global Coffee Production in 2024" https://buff.ly/4gPCHmR

"Nikola filed for bankruptcy. Meet the other failed EV startups" https://buff.ly/4bht13E

I wanted to respond to an issue my friend Jared Bernstein raised about my conclusion in my recent @foreignaffairs.com piece that real wages are below trend. My conclusion is VERY robust to just about every major wage measure and trend. I will expand & explain in this 🧵.

Trade expert Scott Lincicome rejects the argument that #Trump's tariffs are a path to freer, fairer trade. "You can judge a man by his actions. And #DonaldTrump in office, and in the New York Times in the 1980s, has been a tariff man." Follow on Spotify: buff.ly/4ibuJpc

"Trump’s 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum could also drive up costs for Intel and other manufacturing plants in Ohio. According to Samsung, semiconductor manufacturing uses both steel and aluminum."

"Call it 'the Micron test.' The answers help identify the ways and extent to which New York makes it artificially difficult to do business"

Economist Jeff Ferry argues it is "utter nonsense" to say #Trump's first-term tariffs hurt the economy. "Yes, you can still have a growing economy with tariffs," responds trade expert Scott Lincicome. "You're just not growing as quickly." FULL EPISODE: buff.ly/4gTtREA

It's strange to hear an intellectual case for steel tariffs - as opposed to a populist stump speech - because it's so obviously wrong, as @scottlincicome.bsky.social makes clear.

"Connecticut Asks Congress to ‘Rethink the Jones Act’" https://buff.ly/4bcGc5E

"How Trump’s Tariffs Could Reorder Asia Trade and Exclude the U.S." https://buff.ly/4hGfhlf "There is a risk that the U.S. really overplays its leverage... The U.S. market is still the biggest in the world, but proportionally it is lower than it was 20 years ago."

"Farmers hit by a federal funding freeze scramble to respond ahead of spring thaw"

"Regulatory changes, technological advancements and the normalization of previously taboo personal habits have combined to create demand for products that existing businesses were poorly equipped to meet." https://buff.ly/4kpGNFB

"Battle for Top AI Talent Brings Silicon Valley Perks to India" https://buff.ly/4gVyTRg "It’s no surprise that a slew of large global companies are rushing to open their global R&D, innovation and digital capability centers in India"

Now live: https://buff.ly/3Dc1TWT

Who really pays the price for #Trump's tariffs? Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute and Jeff Ferry of the Coalition for a Prosperous America discuss the costs and benefits of #DonaldTrump's trade policy in a forum at Hofstra University. TONIGHT 8:30 pm ET @pbs.org listings: to.pbs.org/39hI6Tf

"Intel didn’t fall behind because of a lack of funds or equipment... It fell behind because of successive internal failures related to its approach to technological and business development.” https://buff.ly/41cVenm

"US consumer sentiment plunges in February on tariff worries" https://buff.ly/41puaCC

A story as old as governments in this world: big corporations can spare the resource to negotiate exemptions or more favourable conditions, probably absorb parts of the rising costs of legislation; the small one are left in the dust.

"Fate of Rivian’s $6.6 billion federal loan—secured in the dying hours of the Biden administration—now hangs in the balance" https://buff.ly/41qo1q1

WALMART CFO: “.. Electronics, microwaves, some of those categories, a lot of those come from China, so there could be some impact there.” @yahoofinance.com $WMT finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart...

"Trump’s Tariff Wars Leave US Small Business With Nowhere to Hide Firms have less ability to absorb costs, or bargain for special treatment, than bigger rivals." https://buff.ly/3X9XYAE

"Trump’s Growing Focus on Tariff Revenue Raises Trade War Odds" https://buff.ly/41aTQ4B You can't negotiate away something you need for steady revenue:

"the U.S. District Court in Delaware granted a motion by Nashwauk-based Mesabi Metallics to transfer its antitrust case against Ohio-based steel giant Cleveland-Cliffs from civil court to trial court." https://buff.ly/4ko6Gph

"Industry Capture of Dental Boards 10 Years after NC Dental" https://buff.ly/4bcHqho "Ten years later, almost all state dental licensing boards are in violation of the standards set by the Supreme Court in NC Dental."

Whack-a-Mole: "How Trump’s First Trade War With China Gave Rise to New Targets" https://buff.ly/4i8E7dj

"China’s EV Price War Leaves Behind a Trail of Zombie Cars" https://buff.ly/4hLzeHq

"Acer Becomes The First Manufacturer To Announce 10% Price Increase On Consumer Products Amid Trump Tariffs; ASUS, HP & Dell To Likely Follow" https://buff.ly/3EOqcuJ

My new @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social piece explains why, bad law and economics aside, the Trump/Navarro plan for trade "reciprocity" would be be bureaucratic, nonsensical mess. https://buff.ly/4gPA0ld

"Home bias and China’s global standing in science" https://buff.ly/41n7wLe "After adjusting citation counts for home bias, the authors place China fourth globally – behind the US, the UK, and Germany – tempering the perception of China’s scientific dominance."

"Hawaii Rep. Case pushing for exemption to Jones Act to save residents money"

"Trump's auto tariffs: Why Alabama's auto industry could take a big hit" https://buff.ly/3X2w89y

"This plan isn’t 'reciprocity'. It’s mercantilism laced with narcissism and caprice." https://buff.ly/4b14AHx

"Professional house cleaners needed in Raleigh" https://buff.ly/4gLRFKA "The pay is $22 to $25 an hour. This includes a flexible schedule where you can set your own hours but anticipate working between 20 and 40 hours a week."

"Declining Life Satisfaction and Happiness Among Young Adults in Six English-speaking Countries" https://buff.ly/4k6x2fh "There is broad evidence across all of these English-speaking countries that happiness and life satisfaction since 2020 rise with age."

New @nberpubs: "The Welfare Benefits of Pay-As-You-Go Financing" https://buff.ly/3QiE1Ea "the welfare gains from access to PAYGo financing are equivalent to a 3.4% increase in income while remaining highly profitable for the lender"

New @nberpubs: "The Labor Market Impact of Digital Technologies" https://buff.ly/4gJ8Oom

"Italy’s Superbonus: The Dumbest Fiscal Policy in Recent Memory" https://buff.ly/40YH9Kl LOL/Yikes:

"Mapped: How Each U.S. State’s Population Has Changed Since 2020" https://buff.ly/41jFTTt

"Growing uncertainty around the future of these [IRA] policies... has led to a sharp drop in new projects and an increase in cancellations." "Meanwhile, clean energy project cancellations are stacking up." https://buff.ly/3X5iLW9

"Gold is a store of value for the boomer generation, and Bitcoin is store of value for the zoomer generation" 🤔 https://buff.ly/433Wo7v

"Greg Mankiw's Blog: A VAT is not a trade restriction"

"Amazon Warehouse Workers Reject Union Bid in North Carolina" "Upstart union’s drive in Raleigh suburb fails by 3-to-1 margin"

Not sure why, but I figured it'd be much higher: "the stock of counterfeits in the United States as a whole is at most about $30 million, or about 1 in 40,000 notes and is likely about $15 million, or on the order of 1 every 80,000 genuine notes in both piece and value terms."

"The bazooka diplomacy of Trump’s tariffs" https://buff.ly/4hECu7d "Even if Trump does not proceed with (all of) the announced tariffs, the increased uncertainty is likely to put off firms from trading with or from the US, lowering US exports and imports..."