stevebowen.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Stronger building codes save lives. Stronger building codes reduce risk / damage to properties. Stronger building codes mean fewer taxpayer dollars needed to aid post-disaster recovery. Stronger building codes are an investment. Not a spend. www.fema.gov/sites/defaul...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Weather-related indemnity payout data for 2024 still coming in from the USDA's federally run crop insurance program. Total now tops $9.5B with drought accounting for >$4.1B alone. Several factors explain why loss payments have increased since 1990. Yes, more anomalous weather is one of them.

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has issued a rare "High Risk" of excessive rainfall for parts of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys today (February 15). Several inches of rain likely in areas where soils are already saturated. Flash flooding potential is high.

submitted 8 days ago • 2 comments

Studies have found that scientists often produce some of their most creative and innovative research early in their careers. We should celebrate anyone willing to meaningfully help advance our understanding of how/why things work or improve our way of life.

submitted 9 days ago • 2 comments

FYI: Notable chance of an outbreak of severe weather on Saturday (Feb 15). Early season activity in this part of the country aligns with what we'd see during La Niña conditions. Well above normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico will add more fuel to environmental conditions.

submitted 9 days ago • 4 comments

Latest payout data for Hurricane Helene from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) shows >96% of the $4.4B in "to-date" losses coming from Florida. Despite catastrophic inland flood damage, limited NFIP policy coverage means North Carolina accounts for just 3% of the event payout.

submitted 12 days ago • 3 comments

In happier news. Those of us snow enthusiasts in Chicago are excited about the prospect of our first legit snowfall of the season this week. As it stands thru February 10, the 10.0" is the least amount of snowfall through this point of a season since 1944 (9.5").

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

NOAA does a lot more than weather forecasting. Here's the list of line offices. Its value extends to so many different sectors that the public would be shocked to realize the volume of decisions made based on what NOAA provides. This is an agency where the "trickle down" theory legitimately occurs.

submitted 17 days ago • 4 comments

A show of support to the scientists and staff at NOAA. This is among the best collection of scientists in the world who provide an invaluable public service via data and forecasting. Their work proves essential for daily operations of the military to commerce to the rest of the private sector.

submitted 18 days ago • 5 comments

Exceptional rainfall in parts of North Queensland, Australia. Most flooding, as of today (Feb 3), is in rural areas but more rainfall in the forecast. The town of Cardwell (between Townsville and Cairns) has recorded 1.36 m (53.50 in) of rain since Jan 27. Another example of a stalled coastal low.

submitted 20 days ago • 1 comment

The globe is very much connected socially and financially in ways that translate to physical and non-physical risks. Several of us co-authored a paper on the subject (Understanding and managing connected extreme events) in 2020. It has never felt more relevant. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

submitted 21 days ago • 1 comment

The CDC's Social Vulnerability Index has been an invaluable tool to showcase which communities are most socially vulnerable to disasters. It has long been a staple in my presentations (screenshot attached). SVI is currently not available on the CDC website. www.atsdr.cdc.gov/place-health...

submitted 23 days ago • 1 comment

Science still struggles to simplify messaging that connects with a broad audience. For instance: Do most people truly understand what a percent chance of rain means? Simplicity does not mean ignore nuance. Repetition is essential for the public to comprehend the wide implications of climate risk.

submitted 23 days ago • 1 comment

Here's the latest National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) county-level take-up map as of Dec 31, 2024. Florida saw a spike of 59,000 policies from Aug to Dec alone. Post-Helene & Milton recency bias a big driver. Proof of flood coverage mandate to obtain a Citizens Insurance policy also a factor.

submitted 30 days ago • 5 comments

Looking across the pond: Storm Éowyn is forecast to bring hurricane-force wind gusts to parts of Ireland and Scotland in the UK before reaching Scandinavia. A second strong storm may arrive early next week. Storm clustering is a common winter phenomenon for extratropical cyclones in Europe.

submitted 32 days ago • 3 comments

Today we (Gallagher Re) released our Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report for 2024. Global Totals (All Perils) Economic Loss: $417 billion Insured Loss: $154 billion Weather / Climate Only Economic: $402 billion Insured: $151 billion www.ajg.com/gallagherre/... (1/4)

submitted 33 days ago • 3 comments

Great season. Came up short in the national championship game, but the Notre Dame football program is in great hands moving forward. Sigh. A CFB natty in my adult lifetime would be nice. #GoIrish

submitted 34 days ago • 0 comments

January 20: Updated CalFire breakout of damage from the Palisades and Eaton fires. More than 17,300 structures damaged / destroyed. FYI: "Structures" does not always mean "home". Most destroyed properties have been single-family homes (>10,659), but thousands of other structure types also impacted.

submitted 34 days ago • 1 comment

Another very "Particularly Dangerous Situation" fire weather warning from the NWS for parts of Southern California from Monday thru the first half of Tuesday (Jan 20-21). FYI: The dryness of vegetation and soil conditions right now in SoCal is highly abnormal for January. This is summer-like.

submitted 35 days ago • 1 comment

Social media should play a major role in how we communicate weather warnings and other catastrophe-related info to the public. But the overreliance on using a handful of privately owned apps to effectively spread official and time-sensitive information should be viewed as a major concern.

submitted 35 days ago • 7 comments

CalFire continues to conduct door-to-door assessments in neighborhoods affected by the Palisades and Eaton fires in Southern California. Our (Gallagher Re) preliminary insured loss estimate from the fires sits in a range of $20-30 billion. The total damage / direct loss cost could be double. (1/3)

submitted 36 days ago • 1 comment

We will never be able to reduce property risk to zero, but there are known construction practices today that can truly mitigate against the effects of natural hazards. It isn't as expensive as you expect. Build back better can't be a slogan. It must be reality. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

submitted 41 days ago • 8 comments

The bravery and incredible skill of the firefighters and first responders with these Southern California wildfires cannot be emphasized enough. What is now a massive catastrophe would have been an even more dire scenario without their round-the-clock work.

submitted 42 days ago • 3 comments

Here's a graphic of the Top 20 fires in California by most number of destroyed structures. Left side shows the list as of 2016. Right side shows the current list as of January 10 (expect updates). Note: 14 new entries have occurred since 2017 alone More people. More properties. Changing climate.

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

Sports. I've been through a lot of painful losses as a player and a fan in my life. It sure is more fun to celebrate a victory. We are.... ND. One. More. #GoIrish

submitted 45 days ago • 0 comments

A very real concern once these fires are extinguished in Southern California will be mudslide / debris flow risk in the months (years) to come. When the inevitable 'weather whiplash' occurs and the pattern shifts from dry to wet, there will be a lot of vulnerable communities near burn scar areas.

submitted 45 days ago • 5 comments

Please do not legitimately quote AccuWeather's financial loss estimates for the ongoing California wildfires or for any natural catastrophe event. Ever.

submitted 46 days ago • 1 comment

We've seen a multi-billion-dollar fire in Colorado in late December 2021. We're witnessing another extremely costly and impactful series of fires in California in early January 2025. The wildfire peril has become a calendar year risk. The idea of a traditional 'fire season' is no longer accurate.

submitted 46 days ago • 2 comments

LA County fire police chief confirms ~1,000 structures destroyed in the #PalisadesFire alone. Separately, the situation with the #EatonFire is extremely concerning. Fears that a significant number of properties have also been destroyed. Initial estimate from the LA fire chief is "more than 100".

submitted 46 days ago • 0 comments

The frequency of destructive wildfires has accelerated in recent years. Since 2017 alone, 13 new individual fires populate California's most destructive fire list dating to 1923. More property in harm's way? Absolutely. But fire conditions fueled by changing climate conditions also a major factor.

submitted 46 days ago • 2 comments

Interesting that both the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) both show La Niña conditions in place (which current atmospheric patterns seem to confirm). But NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which is used to officially declare ENSO phase, still shows neutral.

submitted 47 days ago • 1 comment