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stevenblockmans.bsky.social
Wider Europe, rules-based international order, security & defence Senior Fellow @CEPS.eu & @ICDS-tallinn.bsky.social Visiting Professor at @collegeofeurope.bsky.social Editor-in-Chief @EFAReview.bsky.social Project Coordinator @REUNIR.bsky.social
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Berrie en Marike zijn in Brussel en nemen deel aan het #CEPSideaslab. Het Charge-onderzoek naar Europese defensiesamenwerking wat momenteel loopt is een samenwerking met @stevenblockmans.bsky.social van @ceps.eu šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ

The US poses a real and clear danger to the European security order. On the bright side, JD Vanceā€™s Munich speech is the most important European integration speech since Robert Schuman, says @stevenblockmans.bsky.social at #CEPSlab2025. Follow the event live šŸ‘‰ www.youtube.com/live/yQi66VY...

Our opening plenary starts at 13.15! How can the EU navigate mounting geopolitical and internal pressures? At #CEPSlab2025, our opening plenary will set the stage for key debates on Europeā€™s futureā€”from Ukraine to the single market, enlargement, and the rise of anti-European sentiment.

Commissioner Kos at #CEPSLab2025: Ukraineā€™s accelerated integration into the defence industrial market will be central to the upcoming White Paper on the Future of European Defence.

#REUNIRPublication D5.1 Political Threat Assessment in Eastern Neighbourhood & Western Balkan Countries Russia, China, TĆ¼rkiye &the Gulf states exploit disinformation, economics & culture to weaken democracy & EU integration in the WB & EN @horizoneu.bsky.social Read here: tinyurl.com/tjwahf7z

#REUNIRpublication D4.1: Socio-Economic Threat Assessment in Eastern Neighbourhood & Western Balkan Countries Foreign actors pose major socio-economic threats to EU candidate countries in WB & EN to influence their economies & EU accession @horizoneu.bsky.social Read here: tinyurl.com/39nabkf8

#REUNIRblog ā€œAgainst the War & Putin: Political Views of the Russian Community in Serbiaā€ This @bezbednost.bsky.social study reveals that Russian community in Serbia is young, educated, &largely anti-war, focused on stability, not revolution Read here: tinyurl.com/3ue569a9 @horizoneu.bsky.social

The most arresting moment at this year's EU Enlargement Conference was Ukrainian poet Olesya Mamchych's personal & family account of the pain suffered as a result of a long history of wars waged by Russia. Each time, Ukrainian identity has been strengthened. Ukraine will prevail šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦

How has EU public opinion on enlargement evolved following Russiaā€™s 2022 full-on war against Ukraine? šŸ‘‡

Blackmail by the MAGA Maffia

Mijn interview van maandag, voor de top in Riyadh. Le monde tourne mal

Not a single trace of enlargement or pre-accession fatigue here. If anything, the pronouncements by the Trump administration are concentrating minds to double down on reforms and accelerate the process. Many thanks to all panelists for their spirited contributions!

The EU not just has to discuss its geopolitical environment, it has to shape it. EU enlargement needs an electroshock: security guarantees for candidates, a strategy to deal with bilateral disputes outside of accession negotiations, additional funding to fill the hole left after the closing of USAID

To our participants: welcome to snowy Tallinn

Tough Love icds.ee/en/a-new-but...

It seems appropriate to re-up this. #MSC2025

A hopeful Freedman: "Putin has to work out whether he can walk away from his maximalist demands. (...) Should he end up being blamed for the failure of this big push for peace, he might find that even Trump is ready to step up support for Kyiv and impose more sanctions on Russia." on.ft.com/42RI8yx

A referendum on restarting the EU accession process has been mooted ever since Iceland froze its negotiations in 2013. It was formally included in the programme of Icelandā€™s new government at the end of last year. www.ft.com/content/a39b...

Russian DPM Alexei Overchuk recently compared Armeniaā€™s EU aspirations to ā€œbuying a ticket on Titanicā€ and warned it of economic consequences.

Less than a week to go until this great conference. We have a great line up this year. Check out the programme: šŸ‘‰ icds.ee/en/euec-2025/ @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

The intā€™l situation allows Putin to consolidate gains, regroup & then resume his colonialist mission. ā€œThereā€™s no sign of abandoning his goal of rolling back NATOā€™s presence to 1997 levels. A frozen conflict only benefits the aggressor.ā€ šŸ‘‰ raport.valisluureamet.ee/2025/en/ @mfaestonia.bsky.social

Hegsethā€™s surrender speech will be music to Putinā€™s ears. But given the difficult going of the ā€˜special operationā€™, the Kremlin is unlikely to jump to conclusions. It will closely observe any changes in the USā€™s deployments in and around Europe and, if so, whether Europeans are plugging the holes

The world is sliding from a Helsinki to a Yalta-style order. Where does that leave the EU? @ceps.eu @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Maybe thatā€™s what hell is like, spending an eternity in Bruges

Pulling the plug on Russia

While the PM casually mentions that 2030 is a realistic target date to obtain EU membership, a Foreign Agents Law 2.0 is in the works. Also, the mandatory participation of NGOs in public decision-making processes will be removed from all relevant laws and by-laws. civil.ge/archives/659...

āš”ļøThe Big Baltic Synchro. The BRELL treaty expires today. Tomorrow, the Baltics will disconnect from Belarusian & Russian IPS/UPS and connect to the Continental European synchronous electric power system. Worst case scenario: 3-day outage. Population is prepared. Kaliningrad will be a short circuit.

An underwhelming response: no context, no names. Lost in abstraction

Curious to learn whether the Ambassador gets any serious facetime with senior members of the Trump administration and whether she believes that the EU can be a stabilising force to a US-led West in a Yalta-style world order.

No matter how often well-wishers (Gabriel, Verhofstadt) repeat the idea, itā€™s contrary to precedent (šŸ‡²šŸ‡¦) + the spirit of Art 49 TEU to suggest that not having a geographical foothold in Europe is not important for a state to be considered 'European'. Better focus on closer partnership than membership

How it would have been reported in the NY Times and WaPo if it took place elsewhere: "Young foreign-born self-made millionaire in a bold move to break vested interests and stop hemorrhaging of government revenues".

If X is our guide then the end game for Musk seems to be: seize a polarized, inefficient institution; fuse his identity with it; then use it to punish his enemies & reward his friends. DOGE is a moonshot programme to turn govt into Muskā€™s personal political weapon www.theatlantic.com/technology/a...

ā€œStudents and Serbians writ large have every right to feel betrayed by those who proclaim democratic values but spurn those seeking to see them actually implemented.ā€ Hereā€™s looking at you šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu @kajakallas.bsky.social et al.

Itā€™s time for the EU (esp. EPP, FR, DE & Cion) to abandon Vucic and embrace the democratic aspirations of the Serbian people. The tradeoff: lose an autocrat supplying dirty business opportunities & geopolitical illusions and score a big win for democracy & regional stability tol.org/client/artic...

open.spotify.com/episode/1zM6...

Looking forward!

Please sign the petition in solidarity with the students in Serbia (the content is the same as the other link, but this one includes affiliation) docs.google.com/forms/d/1A56...

A song for the dark times

These are the necessary conditions to get European boots on the ground in #Ukraine, by @stevenblockmans.bsky.social www.ceps.eu/these-are-th... via @ceps.eu #Russia #Putinswar

The Trump circus dominates the news. But thereā€™s other events happening too - in countries where people are rising up against governments, fighting for democracy & accountability. These photos are from Serbia & Georgia today. Capital cities brought to a standstill šŸ‡·šŸ‡øšŸ‡¬šŸ‡Ŗ (Pls see ALT for more detail)

Tens of thousands protest in #Slovakia over pro-#Russia policies of populist leader Fico apnews.com/article/slov... #Ukraine #Putinswar

Looking forward!

Highly recommend watching Conflict, the Finnish mini-TV series which explores an uncomfortably real scenario of a hybrid attack on a strategic peninsula in the Baltic Sea. More effectively than any govt campaign it sends the message that we can't take a safe & free society for granted. Slava Ukraini

#REUNIRpodcast šŸ“ŒEpisode 2 ā€“ How did Russia interfere with the 2024 Moldovan Presidential Elections and EU Membership Referendum? Listen to it on our website: reunir-horizon.eu/episode-2-ho... or Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/425j... @horizoneu.bsky.social @IPREMD

Congratulations, European Defence Agency, on your 20th anniversary! Victory in WWII - soon 80 years. What does history teach us? - Have a ā€œVictory Planā€; - ā Go with a ā€œbig bangā€ approach in defence; - ā No more fragmentation, no more incrementalism; 1/2 ā¬‡ļø

HRVP Kallas injects a dose of urgency at #EDAConf: "An incrementalist approach to EU defence won't work ... Russia could test our preparedness in 3 to 5 years ... Last year, member states collectively spent an average 1.9% on defence. Russia is spending 9% ... Weakness invites the aggressor in."

Good morning Europe, smell the coffee and terminate your X account. Youā€™re past making excuses

This sounds great but the devil is not only in the detail of arranging PPPs & off-budget vehicles to ā€˜make the EU great againā€™. EU structures, rules & procedures exist to ensure democratic oversight and judicial backstop. We shouldnā€™t lose sight of these in the flight forward suggested in this oped

Blue Monday feels like a double whammy this year