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studentized.bsky.social
Political scientist, formerly as a day job now as a hobby
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Ummmm

Reporters: Our latest Bright Line Watch report is coming out Monday with new expert and public survey data on ratings of US democracy, assessments of current and potential threats and new measures of support for political violence. Email me from your work account to get the full report under embargo

I wanted to comment on this new piece on how firing bureaucrats ➡️ dictatorship. This is important research & you should read it. BUT, it is focusing mainly on cases where dictators succeeded. Are there important differences between these cases & the US? A 🧵 👇 theconversation.com/firing-civil...

“The Federal Aviation Administration let go hundreds of technicians and engineers just weeks after a midair collision miles from the White House killed 67 people, eliciting promises from Trump officials to improve air safety, workers said in interviews.” wapo.st/4b5IDHh

US-based friends: see here for an Open Letter to Congress on the Foreign Assistance freeze and subsequent dismantling of USAID. docs.google.com/document/d/1... To sign go here docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Levitsky and Way, two of the leading scholars of democratic backsliding, believe Trump will push the U.S. into competitive authoritarianism. Defeating it is a collective action problem. We MUST speak out and defend those who are targeted by the regime. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

President's Day rallies

NEW: At least three more DOJ Public Integrity Unit senior officials have resigned after meeting with Emil Bove on the Eric Adams case. Five in Public Integrity overall. That’s six officials who resigned, triple the number that happened during the Saturday Night Massacre.

Good thoughts, tuition costs and healthcare access/costs are great things to emphasize. Seems like most people will get little if any tax cut under this admin, but a huge reduction in Federal benefits, including lots of pocketbook benefits they may not have known they were getting.

I think the reason for the assault on universities is something like this. Once upon a time, Dems and Reps split college grads fairly evenly. Then we had a run with two very smart Dem presidents while W. and especially Trump repelled educated voters. But many Rep operatives, especially Chris Rufo...

My heart goes out to everyone in academia, this will be devastating. Communicating that fact will be a huge uphill battle. Even many educated people view universities as fat cats with administrative bloat and endowments that can easily cover shortfalls.

Entire USAID agency worldwide was deleted by a consulting government employee with no authority to do so. It’s a constitutional crisis that puts US national security at risk and normies won’t get this until legacy media says this clearly and loudly.

Dems should take a hard line: no CRs or debt ceiling increases without full reinstatement of fired federal employees with back pay and an independent special prosecutor that Trump can't fire to investigate what happened over the last week with Musk.

Spotted elsewhere: Law firms w/ expertise in fed employment law: Shaw, Bransford & Roth 202-463-8400 Alden Law Group 202-463-0300 Correia & Puth 202-602-6500 Federal Practice Group 202-862-4360 Gilbert Employment Law 844-287-1991 Kalijarvi, Chuzi, Newman & Fitch 202-558-5979 Erlich Law 703-791-9087

Based on some of their comments, I'm guessing one of their plans is adding a fraud detection algorithm to the system. WHICH WOULD BE AWFUL. Given the volume of transactions, even if their algorithm is 99.9% accurate, we're still talking about hundreds of payments per day being blocked unjustly.

I don't know why Wired is doing the best reporting on Musk's bullshit (or why the big papers appear to be doing almost none), but we should reward good work where it happens. Subscribe to Wired!

How sad is it that my first thought was 'hey, at least they still feel compelled to file a Federal Register Notice?'

📌From Timothy Snyder:

True. But the political science literature suggests that people around the world are very responsive to changes in food prices. I'm expecting some palpable backlash within a few weeks.

Why does the world’s richest man, a man no one voted for, have access to my Social Security number?

So far things seem to be heading in more of a Milei direction than an Orban direction

Just spitballing, but things that could happen today: *Court injunction protecting USAID *Dems demand hearings on Musk's role *Someone introduce articles of impeachment *Dem officeholders go to USAID offices with USAID workers *Refuse to conduct any more Senate confirmations until this is resolved

Five-alarm fire. Illegal power grab by an unelected techno bro that has shut off critical programs throughout the world (PEPFAR, bird flu, humanitarian assistance, unexploded mine removal). Now the entire agency is shuttered. Make some noise. Call your reps. Tell your friends to do the same.

Yes in hindsight I think it is clear that the resistance, while far from perfect, was a big net positive that acted as a significant restraint in the first term.

What I should have done in the beginning - here's a starter pack of 20-odd experts who journalists or others might want to read/talk to to understand the gutting of the administrative state (as opposed to broad decline of democracy etc). I've focused on academics go.bsky.app/MaC7vnv