suthank.bsky.social
Associate Professor, Political Science, Aarhus University. https://Suthan.dk/
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The simplest equations for predicting the winner of the election were these:
If Harris won more support among women than she lost among men, she would become President.
If Trump won more support among men than he lost among women, he would become President.
Trump’s equation became a reality.
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Here is the swing state of Wisconsin.
Obama won both urban and rural districts.
Biden lost rural areas but held on to urban strongholds like Madison and Milwaukee.
Harris, however, was crushed in rural areas and couldn’t make up the difference in the cities.
A remarkable shift in just 12 years.
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Rural America is solidly red.
No candidate in history has matched Donald Trump’s performance in rural districts.
Democrats often claim that every vote lost in rural America is offset by gaining two in suburbs and cities.
But the numbers simply don’t add up.
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The Democrats have lost the white working class.
In 1992, Bill Clinton won two-thirds of all white working-class voters.
Today, the numbers have reversed. Trump won two-thirds, leaving just one-third for Harris.
Meanwhile, Harris is far from winning highly educated voters to the same extent.
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The Democrats' most loyal voting group, Black voters, are slowly drifting away from the party.
Obama secured an impressive 95%, Clinton and Biden around 90%, but Harris only managed about 85%.
Trump’s 13–14% among Black voters marks the best Republican performance since Nixon in 1960!
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Democrats’ loss among Latino voters accelerated in this election.
Obama received 72%, Clinton 65%, Biden 60%, and Harris only around 52%.
Donald Trump is now the Republican candidate who has received the most votes among Latinos in history.
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Let’s start with the election map.
Kamala Harris lost ground compared to 2020 almost everywhere—small cities, large cities, suburbs, rural districts. All red.
Democrats lost ground in a staggering 49 out of 50 states!
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This 🧵 is not exhaustive, nor does it suggest these books are better than others.
If it were up to me, everyone would read all new books on the crisis of Western democracies.
If I missed a vital work, please share it below 👇🏽
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Book 7:
Right-wing parties are rising across Western democracies. Is it due to a voter shift? Maybe not.
@valentimvicente.bsky.social insightful book reveals how social norms drive demand (voters) and supply (skilled leaders), reshaping the political landscape in today's Western democracies.
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Book 6:
Do populist politicians have a specific type of personality? Yes, they do. And it is dark.
@alessandronai.bsky.social & @ Maier show that populist leaders tend to score high on narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism and rely on character attacks to attract dark voters.
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Book 5:
Liberal democracies need a world safe for democracy.
Yet, the expansion of the liberal world order has changed it from a club with solid commitments to a public utility in which countries can break the rules.
In a time when the US global leadership is vaning, this book is pivotal.
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This finding is noteworthy. We often assume the most vocal voices represent the population, while they are, in fact, a small group amplified by the media.
If we instead focused on the less involved majority, we would realize that people are less polarized than we think.
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Book 4:
Krupnikov & Ryan upend the conventional view on polarization.
Citizens are not so much polarized by party and ideology. They are polarized by involvement in politics.
A vocal minority is deeply involved, while most are less interested in daily politics.
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Book 3:
Discussing democratic crises often means addressing polarization. Yet, navigating the vast academic polarization research can be overwhelming.
@ezrakleinbot.bsky.social's book offers an exceptionally well-written overview and connects it to present democratic challenges. A must-read!
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Book 2:
We’ve lost respect for political opponents.
By moralizing issues, we leave little room for differing views and end up alienating each other.
It is no longer about political disagreements. It is about right and wrong, good and evil, life and death.
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In past episodes, US democracy faced 1-3 challenges at a time.
What’s uniquely alarming today is that all four threats—polarization, nativism, inequality, and executive aggrandizement—are present simultaneously, creating an unprecedented crisis!
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Book 1:
@smettler.bsky.social & Lieberman explore five crises in the US: the 1790s, the Civil War, the Gilded Age, the Great Depression, & Watergate.
In each period, democracy was threatened by various challenges: Polarization, nativism, inequality, & executive aggrandizement.
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You are already in it :-)
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Democratic innovations
go.bsky.app/LX11yEA
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If you want to include more starter packs, feel free to share them below and repost the whole 🧵👇🏽
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University of Mainz
go.bsky.app/E6KgmJh
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CEE political scientists
go.bsky.app/HvFbt9G
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Norwegian political scientists
go.bsky.app/PFZAWUX
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Political scientists at Aarhus University
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Historical political economy
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Political theory and philosophy II
go.bsky.app/3mESMAN
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Political theory and philosophy I
go.bsky.app/4uqLbgZ
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Peace and conflict II
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Peace and conflict I
go.bsky.app/7o8tZt2
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Authoritarian politics
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Regime stability
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Political partisanship
go.bsky.app/6GMs4su
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Democratic values research
go.bsky.app/HX24CcL
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Political behavior II
go.bsky.app/CAMXbym
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Political behavior I
go.bsky.app/MUYzY5P
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If there is still room, I would like to join as well :-)
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Sure, Jonas. I included you in my regime breakdown starter pack, but I will also include you in this one! :)