tbonier.bsky.social
CEO @ The TARA Group, Senior Advisor @ TargetSmart, Former @ Howard University, Clarity Campaign Labs, NCEC
https://tombonier.substack.com/
148 posts
24,158 followers
81 following
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While your overall point stands, our anthem getting booed in Canada isn't exactly a new thing.
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Please stop saying that Musk "clashed" with the FAA administrator, as if they had a disagreement on policy.
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There are portions of other two counties that are yet to report, but it looks good for the Dem at this point.
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Please note our use of all capital letters, as an indication of just how strong our disappointment is here.
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We're very disappointed by this administration's actions, and therefore we will continue to do this administration's bidding, but in a VERY DISAPPOINTED way.
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This was a combination of failures in voter registration and turnout for Dems. The Dem Hispanic registration increased by 8k over 2020, while GOP Hispanic registration increased by 15k. Dem turnout dropped 0.3% while GOP Hispanic turnout increased by 2.4%.
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thank you
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I don't deny that racism and misogyny played a role, but the voter registration lags happened for 4 years while a white man was president, and registration picked up for Dems when Harris became the nominee.
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I hear you. One of the things that was misleading (for me, at least) was seeing the surge in youth numbers after Harris took over. Which was real. But in the end, the point of comparison was the problem.
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Sorry, back to PA for one note - there was an age gap. GOP voters under 30 matched their 2020 turnout. The only GOP age group to beat that was >age 75. While young voters were the worst turnout group for Dems, relative to 2020
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We also have FL vote history, where you have an even more extreme version of the same story. In 2020 the FL electorate was +2.1% GOP. In 2024 it was +11 GOP, because GOPs demolished Dems in voter reg over the previous 4 years and got better turnout.
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If you look at the PA vote in terms of turnout, Dem turnout dropped by 1% from 2020, while GOP turnout dropped by 0.6%. Not a huge difference, but the issue is that Dem registration dropped by 138k from 2020, while GOP registration increased by 242k.
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In 2020 the PA electorate was +3.8% D. This time it was +0.9% GOP, a 4.7% swing. For reference, Biden won PA by 1.2%, and Harris lost it by 1.7%, and 2.9% swing.
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But really, which of these dozens of EOs will lower the price of eggs? I know that was a top priority for Trump AND his supporters, so he must have taken immediate action on this, right?
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Now do sedition
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From an age perspective, the biggest drops in turnout came among younger voters - those under age 40 saw turnout drop by a little over 11 pts, while the turnout drop among voters over 65 was just over 5 pts.
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WI was Harris' narrowest loss - about 29k votes. For reference, if voters of color matched their 2020 turnout, that would be an increase of 42,694 votes. Of course, they wouldn't have all supported Harris.
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Well, quantifiably at least part of what you say here has to be true. Gallego did better than Harris. So more voters either liked him, or disliked Lake (or both). The question is how/why, in that these things don't just happen by themselves.
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Or if they were paid based on the wages of the incarcerated after they returned to society (paid w/ government funds, not garnishing wages).
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In each of these states, more Dems stayed home than the margin Harris lost by. I doubt they stayed home because they wanted a candidate who would capitulate to Trump, or because of inflation.