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teraallas.bsky.social
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One of the reasons for lackluster UK #growth has been weakness in #consumer #demand. Gross disposable incomes, and wages, have actually been growing, but people are saving a bigger proportion of their income. A big driver of this is #uncertainty. #dataisbeautiful

The key to improving living standards is #innovation. But it's not mostly about leading edge #tech or R&D. Actually turning innovations into things that are valuable to users is mostly about #business #culture: embracing workers' ideas and staying relentlessly #customer #centric.

UK CPI #inflation in Jan 2025 was back up to 3%, driven by some one-off factors but also broader services inflation still at 5%. Fast #wage #growth will have contributed to the latter. Relative to #vacancies, earnings continued to grow at a robust pace in Dec 2024. #dataisbeautiful

UK #capital #investment per capita dipped in Q4 2024 and was no higher than in Q4 2017, seven years ago. No wonder we have a #productivity problem. Q4 2024 saw an increase in non-residential buildings and infra, but investment dropped for all other types. #dataisbeautiful

The UK #economy grew by 0.8% or £20bn in 2024. More than £20bn came from business services and the quasi public sector, with consumer services broadly flat, and a negative contribution from production and utilities. #dataisbeautiful

Some people are arguing that the #BoE should have cut #interest rates even more, even though #inflation is expected to stay above the 2% target for the whole of 2025. Why? Mortgage rates are a case in point: it takes a long time for Bank rate changes to show up. #dataisbeautiful

Led by Anita Charlesworth and @teraallas.bsky.social the NHS #ProductivityCommission will begin its work in April 2025. Want to stay informed on its progress? Sign up here ⬇️ https://buff.ly/4hkalCs

At 2.8%, the US #economy grew 4x as fast in 2024 as the UK. But it's not all about the #tech sector. Big contributions also from retail of motor vehicles, health care, public admin, profesional services, chemicals and pharma. #dataisbeautiful

The #BoE rate is expected to come down by quite a lot in 2025, despite inflation expectations above the Bank's target. What's interesting in this (very pretty "sea creature") chart is how high the rate is expected to stay (3.7%+) in the longer-term. #dataisbeautiful

Really pleased to be Co-Chairing this NHS Productivity Commission - even though not expecting any easy answers.

Sectors such as aerospace and chemicals will see a compounding effect from #tariffs. Around 50% of US imports are not final products but intermediary inputs into US manufacturing, and 14% of those are re-exported as part of global supply chains. #dataisbeautiful

Really excited to be co-chairing this important commission with the brilliant Anita Charlesworth. Nothing as important as our nation's health, both socially and economically.

As we wrap up the #NationalProductivityWeek, let's look at sectoral performance. Some sectors, especially ICT, grew much faster than the national average 0.7% p.a.; but many had their output per hour decline substantially. Food for thought for #industrial #strategy. #dataisbeautiful

I get the air quality and noise issues w Hrow 3rd runway. And the symbolism re climate change. But why has no-one mentioned actual numbers, ie. less than 2% of UK GHG emissions?

Great that the #NationalProductivityWeek has coincided with the Chancellor's speech about UK growth. This chart highlights the heavy lift that will be required. Post-COVID (Q1 2022 - Q3 2024) productivity growth has been negative at -0.2%. #dataisbeautiful

"Treasury guidance attaches a monetary value to wellbeing, and the economic value of claiming disability benefits is estimated to be around £12,300 per person." @isabellamcrae.bsky.social covers our new report for the Big Issue: www.bigissue.com/news/social-...

#RTO and #WFH policies likely have a very differential impact on women vs. men. Women's commutes tend to be shorter, but for the same length of commute, women are much more likely to work from home. #dataisbeautiful

The UK labour market continues to cool across the board (and the labour market #dragon chart is back!) Unemployment up to 4.4%, vacancies down to 812k, number of unemployed per vacancy now at 1.9 (up from 1.0 in 2022). #dataisbeautiful

So, no immediate #tariffs announced yet. That doesn't mean no impact: global economic uncertainty has surged since the US election. If this leads to delays in #investment, it could also slow down #productivity growth. #dataisbeautiful

You may agree or disagree with the specific examples here, but I for one agree that the enormous complexity that is a result of the need to “be seen to be doing something” is damaging to the very outcomes we seek. Gvt decisions should be subject to minimum materiality criteria.

UK's #GDP growth in Nov 2024 was disappointing. But these month-on-month variations are essentially invisible a bigger picture of very modest growth since before the pandemic. At sectoral level, though, education and some B2B services have grown by more than 10% since 2019. #dataisbeautiful

There’s much to like about this piece by the PM. The ambition is right. But to actually make money from AI, surely it’s critical the products/services are sold globally?

Looking forward to chairing this discussion on how C-suite leaders tackle #productivity.

#AI is everywhere, but most adoption is invisible, in the background, embedded in tech we already use. Only 16% of UK businesses say explicitly that they are using AI, and adoption has increased most among larger businesses. #dataisbeautiful

The economy divides into traded and non-traded sectors, right? Wrong! Very few sectors have no trade at all, and sectors where more than 10% of gross output is exported account for 60% of the global economy. #dataisbeautiful

Excellent piece by @vincecable with a set of robust tests for industrial strategy. “A successful industrial strategy breaks down jealously guarded silos” Industrial policy must be practical not performative

Wishing everyone a great start to the new year when it comes! To mark a year of new challenges and learning, I decided to go ice skating (at this brilliant, free of charge, municipal rink in Helsinki). Took some time for the muscle memory to return… but it’s a start!

UK #retail #sales increased by a modest 0.2% in November, and retail volume remain well below 2019. Supermarkets, the biggest category, are down 6% from 2019. But pockets of growth: in pharmacies and other non-food; and internet retailing 18% above 2019. #dataisbeautiful

As a chart (and data) lover, really enjoyed this fun game in the @FT. [Worked surprisingly well on the iPhone.] Got most of it directionally right, but the last one completely wrong... https://buff.ly/49NaPhh #dataisbeautiful

UK #inflation ticked up to 2.6% in November. Services continued to contribute 2.5%-points. But the increase was due to lower negative energy inflation, higher food inflation, and an increase in "other goods" inflation, e.g., clothes, second-hand cars, and pet-related items. #dataisbeautiful

UK #labour market continues to cool slowly, with fewer vacancies per unemployed now than at the end of 2019. Vacancies still considerably higher than pre-pandemic average (2002-2019), though, so with uncertainty about #inflation, wage growth continued at a strong 5.2% in Aug-Oct. #dataisbeautiful

On #WakeUpToMoney on Friday (https://buff.ly/3OPFJfw), I mentioned this data showing that employees in England have the highest qualifications mismatches and among the highest skills and field of study mismatches among OECD countries. Problem for #productivity. #dataisbeautiful

Doing topic modelling on the corpus of papers in seven economics journals over a century shows first a shift from state to markets, and then the rise of civil society and non market factors in the economy as areas of interest www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... (HT @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social)

This has got to stop @bbcstrictly! (You did it last year, too.) This is not a legit use of a pie chart (the way you explained it). There’s a trade off between “educate” and “entertain” and this was not a good balance. #chartcrimes #dataisbeautiful #StrictlyComeDancing

Great to be on #WakeUpToMoney with @FelicityHannah this morning, discussing #GDP, housing, EV charging, and pets! Listen here https://bit.ly/41xk9nr and check out related #dataisbeautiful chart in comments. UK October GPD fell by 0.1% which, in the scheme of things, is essentially flat.

A fascinating finding in the 2023 #PIAAC data is that people in countries with the highest skills are also more likely to report that they are under-skilled! No doubt partly cultural, partly workplace expectations, partly who you compare yourself to, and maybe just under-confidence. #dataisbeautiful