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theeyewallwx.bsky.social
Reliable, no-hype coverage of tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic from the team at Space City Weather! https://theeyewall.com/
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A thorough, honest look at how weather balloon launch cuts may impact our weather forecasting capabilities going forward. In short: It's complicated, but the risk profile will almost certainly increase. Read more: theeyewall.com/weather-ball...

submitted 17 hours ago • 2 comments

Today we take a look at both the current fire weather concerns in West and North Texas, as well as how drought is going and what to watch for in the coming weeks. theeyewall.com/the-2025-dry...

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Weather brother @mattlanza.bsky.social with the correct way to write a morning headline in his excellent publication, The Eyewall. Brief and important read. Like right now. Really, go read it.

submitted 24 days ago • 1 comment

“They have improved track forecast errors by a whopping 3 days on average in 20 years. A 3-day track forecast today performs better than a 1-day track forecast did on average” in the 90s/00s. These improvements have saved $billions. Costs for fed, state, local govts, you & me go up by gutting this.

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Hurricane forecasting has never been better. The NHC just had their most successful year of forecasting. But we sit at a perilous moment, and it's important to understand the ramifications of what may be coming from the Trump Administration. Here, we offer an economic argument to proceed cautiously.

submitted 24 days ago • 2 comments

We are beginning to see hurricane outlooks emerge for the upcoming season. But what is actually known at this point, and how is 2025 looking compared to 2024 at the same time? Spoiler alert: Very different in both positive and negative ways. Read more:

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

An anatomy of a Mid-Atlantic snow forecast bust of sorts: While Hampton Roads will cash in on snow, places to the north saw it vanish on their forecasts in a couple days. What happened? theeyewall.com/dude-wheres-...

submitted 33 days ago • 1 comment

Unfortunately, the flooding that we expected to occur in Kentucky and West Virginia happened as forecast. As those areas clean up, they will also be readying for a snowstorm this week, as a complex, significant winter storm takes aim at them, the Plains, the Mid-Atlantic, and elsewhere. We explain.

submitted 35 days ago • 0 comments

An almost continuous line of flash flood warnings between Arkansas and Virginia. This includes a pair of flash flood emergencies in the Virginias. Bad, bad day unfolding in these areas.

submitted 36 days ago • 2 comments

A serious flooding risk will unfold in Kentucky & Tennessee on Saturday, as a storm tapping into a record warm Gulf of Mexico dumps significant rain on already saturated soil. And there may be a severe outbreak to the south to boot. We explain what's going on: theeyewall.com/serious-floo...

submitted 37 days ago • 0 comments

A series of storms will likely cause some flooding between West Virginia and Louisiana over the next 7 to 10 days. Southern California has some flooding and debris flow concerns too. Details on an active weather pattern today.

submitted 40 days ago • 1 comment

ICYMI last night, we discussed the weekend winter storm that's brewing. Busy period upcoming.

submitted 45 days ago • 1 comment

Apologies for the late post, but kids, bedtime, etc. Anyway, I wanted to take a look at a significant winter storm this weekend that's going to impact the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast! Some thoughts on that, and a special message for Natl Weatherperson's Day!

submitted 46 days ago • 0 comments

After a literal "Dry January," what happens as February sets in? Some signs of change and hope for snow lovers but maybe not quite enough for them yet. Details and a rundown on where things stand today at The Eyewall.

submitted 48 days ago • 0 comments

This evening, we've got a post with a bunch of nuggets of information: Could winter return in mid-February? Hurricane Beryl's post-storm report has been released, so we scour it for interesting info. La Niña is officially here, but how long will it last?

submitted 52 days ago • 0 comments

Last week was history making on the Gulf Coast with a truly memorable snowstorm between Texas and Florida. Today, we recap some of the numbers and scenes from across the region & look at how it compared to the benchmark Gulf Coast snowstorm from 1895. More here:

submitted 55 days ago • 0 comments

A great explainer piece that lays out how the underlying cause of the current CA fires is more complex than merely “climate change”. It’s also a lovely piece of accessible writing broadly advocating for nuance in analysis, and a powerful example to us all. Thank you @theeyewallwx.bsky.social

submitted 73 days ago • 0 comments

The initial reactions to the horrifying scenes from California this week felt visceral: This isn’t normal. And while it isn’t normal, it’s happened in winter before. Explaining nuance, explaining why THIS event was so bad, and looking ahead in California…

submitted 73 days ago • 1 comment

A minor snow event in Minnesota last week provided an opportunity to look at a fairly interesting minor forecast 'bust' of sorts. It also offered some evidence of another small win for AI modeling. Let's go through what happened. #MNwx

submitted 90 days ago • 1 comment

A minor snow event in Minnesota last week provided an opportunity to look at a fairly interesting minor forecast 'bust' of sorts. It also offered some evidence of another small win for AI modeling. Let's go through what happened. #MNwx

submitted 90 days ago • 1 comment

As many gear up for Christmas, the weather is going in another direction: Warmer. Much warmer. A major pattern change is going to pause winter for a bit in much of the country. We explain what's going on, why it's happening, and when it may change again.

submitted 96 days ago • 0 comments

Good read on the AMOC and all the things associated with it.

submitted 103 days ago • 0 comments

Taking stock of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season as it officially ends. How were the forecasts? What actually happened? Why did it happen? Verification, speculation, and analysis here: theeyewall.com/as-the-2024-...

submitted 113 days ago • 2 comments

Taking stock of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season as it officially ends. How were the forecasts? What actually happened? Why did it happen? Verification, speculation, and analysis here: theeyewall.com/as-the-2024-...

submitted 113 days ago • 2 comments

Winter is coming. For real. A major pattern change across the eastern two-thirds of the country this week will bring serious cold to the Midwest and Great Lakes along with some snow. Details on how it unfolds: theeyewall.com/winter-about...

submitted 119 days ago • 1 comment

Hurricane season is basically over now, so we take stock of it all. Meanwhile, we shift focus to the West, where a damaging wind event may impact eastern metro Seattle tonight, and a prolonged atmospheric river will deliver some hefty rain to California. Details: theeyewall.com/hurricane-se...

submitted 124 days ago • 1 comment

Tropical Storm Sara is on the coast of Honduras dumping copious amounts of rain, potentially leading to a catastrophic flood threat there. Heavy rain will also impact the Yucatan, Belize, and portions of Nicaragua. Details: theeyewall.com/tropical-sto...

submitted 128 days ago • 0 comments

Tropical Depression 19 is a deeply serious flooding threat to #Honduras over the next several days. Beyond that, risk for a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane has dropped a good bit. Good news ultimately for #Florida. Details here: theeyewall.com/tropical-dep...

submitted 129 days ago • 0 comments

Invest #99L is likely to become #Sara in the next couple days. It poses a major flooding threat to Honduras, as it will stall out near the coast. What Florida sees next week will depend heavily on where that stall occurs in a few days. We explain: theeyewall.com/sara-should-...

submitted 130 days ago • 0 comments

The next storm up in the Caribbean will bear watching for Central America, Cuba, Jamaica, and perhaps eventually Florida. Has a potentially high ceiling initially and is very complicated. We explain what we can today: theeyewall.com/caribbean-sy...

submitted 131 days ago • 0 comments

Rafael may be out of the picture now, but there are some growing concerns about a storm or hefty rainmaker for the southwest Caribbean and Central America later this week or weekend. No U.S. concerns at this time. Read the details: theeyewall.com/with-rafael-...

submitted 132 days ago • 0 comments

Rafael matched Hurricane Kate this morning as the strongest November Gulf hurricane on record. But it should now be weakening and accelerate that this weekend. Still some track uncertainty, and we explain what we know: theeyewall.com/hurricane-ra...

submitted 135 days ago • 1 comment

WYD, Rafael? The hurricane is taking one of the oddest paths for November. Why? And is it a concern? We explain today. theeyewall.com/rafael-moves...

submitted 136 days ago • 0 comments

Valdosta, GA is seeing a serious late night flooding event with a flash flood emergency in effect as moisture surging north from near Hurricane Rafael inundates parts of Georgia and South Carolina. More on that and where Rafael is going: theeyewall.com/rafael-post-...

submitted 137 days ago • 1 comment

Tropical Storm #Rafael is here, likely to be a formidable hurricane when it impacts the Caymans and western Cuba tomorrow & Wednesday. From there, it likely meets its demise in the Gulf, but it bears watching. Details on that and where heavy rain may fall: theeyewall.com/tropical-sto...

submitted 139 days ago • 1 comment

We are closely watching Invest #97L in the Caribbean. It is expected to become a depression or TS over the next day or so as it lifts toward Jamaica, then Cuba, then into the Gulf. How quickly it organizes and where it goes remains to be seen. We explain: theeyewall.com/caribbean-de...

submitted 140 days ago • 0 comments

A tropical wave is causing flash flooding concerns in Puerto Rico, as we slowly get some clarity on Caribbean development chances in the coming days. Interests in the western Caribbean should stay tuned on this. Details: theeyewall.com/caribbean-sy...

submitted 142 days ago • 1 comment

Odds of development in the Caribbean are now increasing and up to 60% this afternoon. We explain how things may unfold and why we aren’t especially concerned for the U.S. Details: theeyewall.com/caribbean-de...

submitted 143 days ago • 0 comments

November looks to open on an active note, with Caribbean development odds around 50/50 heading into next week. We explain the potential progression of development and how things may evolve in today's post. theeyewall.com/caribbean-de...

submitted 145 days ago • 0 comments

We continue to watch the Caribbean as a development hot spot next weekend, but we also need to be mindful of model scareicane season too. We explain and talk a bit further about how to handle “noise” in today’s post: theeyewall.com/caribbean-de...

submitted 149 days ago • 0 comments

It would appear we have a week of calm in the Atlantic. The next development window should open in the early days of November in the western Caribbean, but details remain a bit fuzzy. An update: theeyewall.com/calmer-seas-...

submitted 151 days ago • 1 comment

Oscar was an odd duck this past weekend, but not unheard of. Small but mighty storms can be tough to forecast, so we take a look back, as well as a look forward at what to watch next. theeyewall.com/how-did-osca...

submitted 153 days ago • 1 comment

Tropical Storm Nadine formed earlier, and Hurricane Oscar surprised us all this afternoon. What happened and where is Oscar off to? Details: theeyewall.com/surprise-sur...

submitted 155 days ago • 0 comments

So, uh, Hurricane Oscar formed. Going to need to do a look back at this one. Wow. Mostly modest hurricane impacts in a small area, but a threat to the Turks/Caicos, southeastern Bahamas, and parts of Cuba.

submitted 155 days ago • 0 comments

And the other invest has become Oscar. No serious threat to land. www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...

submitted 155 days ago • 1 comment

Tropical Storm Nadine really got its act together. Good thing this is moving ashore today. 😬

submitted 155 days ago • 1 comment

Invest 95L has a very narrow window to do something before coming ashore in Central American this weekend as a rainmaker. Meanwhile, 94L is about to hit a wall of wind shear, allowing the tropics to calm down some more. Details: theeyewall.com/invest-95l-w...

submitted 156 days ago • 0 comments

Invest 94L in the Central Atlantic continues to putter along. Significant development is less likely as the system nears the Caribbean. Meanwhile, parts of Central America could see heavy rainfall over the next week from tropical moisture.

submitted 158 days ago • 0 comments

Is invest 94L a serious concern for anyone? Not really. We explain what we are watching and why we aren’t super concerned at this time. A little bit of quiet would be appreciated. Details: theeyewall.com/invest-94l-t...

submitted 160 days ago • 0 comments

Time to catch our breath after a frenetic few weeks. Today we talk about 94L, the potential for what may happen next in the Gulf or Caribbean, and talk about our site and our goals. theeyewall.com/catching-our...

submitted 163 days ago • 1 comment