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thelookout.bsky.social
Military and defense issues, as seen from NATOs northern flank. Special interest: The Russian Navy. Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own Contact: [email protected]
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🇷🇺Med Sea Flotilla🇷🇺 3m📷 from 25 Feb 2025 of the port of Tartus Sparta IV remains at the piers if not finished loading, she must be close to finished Admiral Grigorovich appears to be waiting around to escort her out, sitting ~5km W/NW of the piers

submitted 4 hours ago • 3 comments

One may not like it, but the trend is visible.

submitted 6 hours ago • 5 comments

I’ll just leave this here, if someone doesn’t remember who attacked who.

submitted 7 hours ago • 0 comments

☢️ I've collected 800+ resources for those working on WMD issues in my "LearnWMD Spreadsheet" learnwmd.wixsite.com/learnwmd/the... Recently, I've gone through and updated all links & information. I've also broken out the OSINT resources into their own tab. Be sure to check it out!

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

Has anyone begun thinking about the potential impact of "Golden Dome" on US - Russia relations? Regardless of a Trumpian Détente, the US will remain Russia's main nuclear adversary, and if the economic pressure is lifted, more resources could be used on a response.

submitted 7 hours ago • 3 comments

Don't drive like this if you visit Norway during the winter. The Chinese tourist in question was expelled and has been banned from entering the country for 5 years.

submitted 9 hours ago • 4 comments

When looking at Russian reconstitution times, I think missile and UAV production is more important to look at than tank and IFV numbers. If the fighting stops and production rates are kept up, the stockpiles would be substantial fairly soon.

submitted 10 hours ago • 1 comment

Finnish Ministry of Defense has proposed to budget a 660M€ program for new defense acquisitions from Finnish defense industry to support Ukraine. Equipment would be delivered to Ukraine as part of materiel assistance packages. Press release in Finnish: www.defmin.fi/ajankohtaist...

submitted 12 hours ago • 1 comment

A bit peculiar:

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

SCOOP: Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment. Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is now ready to sign. www.ft.com/content/1890...

submitted 1 day ago • 28 comments

More Norwegian bilateral defense cooperation, this time with Denmark. The new initiative will cover joint acquisitions, more joint training and education and possible defense industrial cooperation. www.vg.no/nyheter/i/al...

submitted 1 day ago • 4 comments

Leaked fresh report to Finnish foreign affairs committee: The US abandoned the global rules based world order it maintained and defended. NATO deterrent is seriously eroding and increasing threat of war. Whole alliance military power and US nuclear weapons aren't necessary behind Finland.

submitted 1 day ago • 5 comments

Ukraine has been fighting for three years in increasingly difficult conditions. Today, the Nordic and Baltic countries announced that they will “pledge to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit”. It’s a textbook example of too little, too late. 1/

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

BAE Systems and Norwegian shipyard Hamek have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to collaborate on Norway’s maritime defence requirements. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/norway-type-...

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

I don't think this new Nordic Baltic brigade is a good idea. Ukraine's problem hasn't been too few brigades, but rather too many new ones, and the work to straighten this out, by disbanding some brigades and setting up a corps structure has just began. www.forsvaretsforum.no/ukrainsk-bri...

submitted 2 days ago • 4 comments

After the initial MH17 work 10 years ago, I was tracking Russia’s covert movement of equipment over the border to East Ukraine, and through @bellingcat.com we maintained a map to make it all visible. 3 years of overt war, but 11 years of overall military incursions by Russia into Ukraine.

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

Merz just said on German TV that the primary priority of his government will be to ensure that Europe can achieve full strategic independence from the United States in the defence against Russia. Merz was once a die hard Atlanicist. Now, after Trump he is a Gaullist. Extraordinary.

submitted 3 days ago • 257 comments

I wrote about this two days ago when I learned about it. Now you have confirmation that my insight was on the spot:

submitted 3 days ago • 14 comments

🧵 This UN resolution vote on Ukraine is worth paying attention to. A brief thread on the Trump administration's bullying under way in the background. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

submitted 3 days ago • 25 comments

"We just followed our orders!" "So they said back in '45 too, and look where that got them"

submitted 3 days ago • 5 comments

This is three years ago today. A few days earlier I had said that post Cold War Europe was gone, the old, dark Europe of earlier times had returned. Now we have a US administration talking about "the root causes of the conflict"™️. We are truly in a brave new world now.

submitted 3 days ago • 3 comments

CDU/CSU just under 30% is still a win for Merz but symbolically being in the upper 20s will disappoint them. SPD has done badly but could have been worse. AfD gets a very good result but will still be disappointed because they vastly overestimate their realistic potential.

submitted 3 days ago • 12 comments

Fairly confident that this Yasen was gone by the 18th. Speaking of Yasens, I think only one was in Zapadnaya Litsa on Friday, the 21st.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Yekaterinburg has been moved over the winter. Nice to know where she is moored now as one can't determine that from Sentinel-2.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

🇷🇺Northern Fleet Sub Piers🇷🇺 50cm📷 of Olenya Guba & Gadzhiyevo (6 Feb 2025) Olenya Guba: 2x modified Delta Class subs (Podmoskovye & Orenburg) along with what appears to be a Yasen-M Class. Yantar is back from the Med & Evgeny Gorigledzhan is present as well

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

🔺Baltic Fleet activity Northern Fleet BPK-619 likely temporary assigned to the Baltic Fleet, increasing regional ASW capability. New intelligence article⬇️ open.substack.com/pub/jamesdro...

submitted 3 days ago • 3 comments

#Russia's naval deployment in the #Mediterranean on the morning of Feb-22 as reported by #OSINT. Algiers becoming more important as a refueling stop and steady withdrawal from Tartus continues. russianfleetanalysis.blogspot.com/2025/02/russ...

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

🔺OOA activity - Update Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.22350 class frigate SKR-456 “Admiral Golovko” is likely preparing to depart the Mediterranean Sea. ⚠️Unit could conduct STROG westbound next 1-5 days. @thelookout.bsky.social @chacons.bsky.social @saturnax1.bsky.social

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

🇷🇺Med Sea Flotilla🇷🇺 3m📷 of the port of Tartus from 21 Feb 2025 It appears that Sparta IV is pier-side and likely loading equipment Caveats apply

submitted 5 days ago • 3 comments

More UK - Norwegian defence cooperation: A new agreement on long range UAV operations has been signed, kick-starting the UAV plans of the Defense Pledge. Norwegian personnel will gain experience with the RAF and the MQ-9s. www.forsvaretsforum.no/andoya-flyst...

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

This is for the Norwegian debate, but I'll say it in English: I think we need to accelerate and expand the Defense Pledge, with focus on the near term. This won't be easy, the plan is already ambitious and personnel- and defense industrial constraints are very real, but the times require it.

submitted 5 days ago • 9 comments

🔺Northern Fleet Air activity A Russian Navy NFAF likely Il-38 MPA conducted a probable weather recce flight in the SBAR and RTB, AM 21 February 2025. ⚠️A/C likely supported maritime exercise activity. @thelookout.bsky.social

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

This is for the Norwegian debate, but I'll say it in English: I think we need to accelerate and expand the Defense Pledge, with focus on the near term. This won't be easy, the plan is already ambitious and personnel- and defense industrial constraints are very real, but the times require it.

submitted 5 days ago • 9 comments

submitted 5 days ago • 2 comments

Some thoughts: Trump 2 isn't Trump 1. While the day to day working level relationship could remain stable, the new uncertainty is political, and both the uncertainty and the risks will increase with increasing tensions. Therefore we need to hedge our bets.

submitted 5 days ago • 6 comments