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timbale.bsky.social
Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (out in pbk soon!). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at https://proftimbale.com
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World feels very dystopian atm: can't get this out of my head. "And as I was standing by the edge I could see the faces of those who led Pissing themselves laughing (and the flames grew higher) Their mad eyes bulged, their flushed faces said The weak get crushed as the strong grow stronger"

I’d like to think I’m the first person to get into a flame war with VPOTUS from the swimming pool of Woburn Center Parcs at half-term.

Liz Truss at CPAC. Never has the phrase "tickets still available" been more applicable.

When Farage did it back in June, it was 'nauseating ahistorical drivel' but when Trump does it his 'statements are not intended to be historically accurate but to shock Europeans into action.'

Very useful comparison of youth mobility proposals by @simonusherwood.bsky.social Key points: - neither Commission nor UK proposals are "free movement" - no big differences of *principle* between UK & Commission - *but* difficult financial (NHS surcharge, tuition fees) & practical (quota) issues

One of the top three things Wakefield is famous for, along with its Rugby League club and @anandmenon.bsky.social

Just looking at the latest YouGov poll - the Tories are on 9% with people under 50. It is not clear to me how this helps with that problem.

Share believing in God without a doubt. Republicans 1988: 66% 2022: 63% (-3) Independents 1988: 59% 2022: 51% (-8) Democrats 1988: 63% 2022: 39% (-24)

When Farage did it back in June, it was 'nauseating ahistorical drivel' but when Trump does it his 'statements are not intended to be historically accurate but to shock Europeans into action.'

Blimey!

👏 @ericheinze.bsky.social

Cue @robertshrimsley.bsky.social being labelled a 'Marxist' by Badenoch and co.

I understand why this theory appeals but Trump has batted off serious (and evidenced) sexual assault clams, believes himself to be above the law and does not appear to suffer embarrassment. What would the kompromat be? Honestly I (sadly) believe he just admires Putin and sees Ukraine as weak.

We were chatting today about "conspiracy theories for which there's no hard evidence but which you can't quite bring yourself to dismiss outright" - and, for some reason I can't quite put my finger on, the one about Putin having Kompromat on Trump in Moscow came up....

Folk music, climate denialism & populism : US & European conservatives get together in London www.theguardian.com/politics/202... via me at the ARC conference this week

A lot of Leopards around today. A lot of people who thought sucking up to a bunch of gangsters would somehow give them influence.

Another of the almost uncountably pieces of very sinister news coming out of the US

I empathize w Mr Friedman who hopes the law of gravity will kick in to save us. But alas: in Politics there is no law of gravity. It is up to citizens, leaders, & civil society who either act, or not. What may look like gravity is actually political courage www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/o...

He didn't achieve anything on North Korea, Iran, China the first time round. Now he has already achieved nothing with tatiffs on Mexico & Canada.... So no surprise. He talks himself up all the time but he is just full of hot air and zero substance.

"Ukrainian war crimes prosecutors believe it is part of Russian policy to execute surrendering prisoners of war. The FT investigates the evidence to map the rise in cases. We talk to the people who are documenting Russian war crimes and we look into a mass execution filmed by a Russian soldier"

Are we ready for voting at 16? Large majority of teachers believe curriculum fails to provide pupils with sufficient political education to vote, poll shows ft. thoughts from @samcarling.bsky.social on importance of critical thinking @politicshome.bsky.social www.politicshome.com/news/article...

I suspect many Conservatives feel very, very queasy about keeping quiet or, worse still, actively conniving as their counterparts across the pond sell Ukraine down the river and sh*t all over its people and their (elected) president. Whether they can carry on like that is, I hope, an open question.

open.substack.com/pub/alexmass...

The Debatable Land alexmassie.substack.com?utm_campaign...

And reminding voters of that, btw, was - in addition to playing the 'supermajority card' and trying to squeeze the Reform vote - precisely how a whole bunch of sitting Tory MPs (a fair few of them successfully, I should add) went about saving their seats at the 2024 general election!

(Some - thankfully not all) Reform voters would appear to be living on a different planet to the rest of us. Or at least on Planet Trump/Putin?

There's been (inexplicably, IMO) some debate over the source of Reform UK's growth in Scotland (e.g. a few unionists claim that the flow to them is from the SNP). Looking at the latest polling, that very clearly isn't the case. The story is the total fragmentation of Scottish Labour's vote:

A number of prominent UK Conservatives' statements about Donald Trump resemble one of those news stories that begins with a magazine feature about a new age mystic who believes he can talk to bears and ends with a newspaper article about a new age mystic being mauled to death by bears.

We were chatting today about "conspiracy theories for which there's no hard evidence but which you can't quite bring yourself to dismiss outright" - and, for some reason I can't quite put my finger on, the one about Putin having Kompromat on Trump in Moscow came up....

What European nations can & should do now to strengthen deterrence & defence: compelling arguments from @garvanwalshe.org

Turns out that all that 'Suella's actually much nicer in person than you'd imagine' might not be so accurate after all - not according to this excerpt from Rishi Sunak's Chief Whip, Simon Hart's tell-all diaries, published next week:

Back before Dicky and Andrea made nice (8/6/24, source: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...)

We've got some new polling on AfD voters: who they are, and what is driving them. Five striking findings on the rise of the far right in Germany. 🧵🧵🧵 institute.global/insights/geo...

And reminding voters of that, btw, was - in addition to playing the 'supermajority card' and trying to squeeze the Reform vote - precisely how a whole bunch of sitting Tory MPs (a fair few of them successfully, I should add) went about saving their seats at the 2024 general election!

A lot to unpack here, but I think an underrated problem with what Badenoch is saying is that the Liberal Democrats ARE on Twitter. Like so many people left on X she simply has not noticed how degraded and filtered her information environment has become.

Nick @nicktyrone.bsky.social is always worth a read (and nowadays a listen) nicktyrone.substack.com/p/was-brexit...

"Property-owning democracy", RIP (the Conservative Party?) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

"Stewart leaked emails suggesting that [Boris] Johnson had prioritised staff from the animal charity Nowzad for evacuation over more deserving cases."