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tj-terwilliger.bsky.social
Finance and investing. I like shareholder yield however I can get it, and no-brainers. Find more of my writing at: https://www.compoundingdividends.net https://tjterwilliger.substack.com/
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High Return on Invested Capital isn't just a metric - it's a signal. It tells you a business has something special: a moat, a brand, or a network that competitors can't easily copy. These are the businesses that create lasting wealth. Great visual from @IFB_podcast

Warren Buffett built an empire without paying dividends. Yet, he loves collecting them. Let's dive into the Buffett dividend paradox.

Miss a big winner? Turn FOMO into learning: • Why did you miss it? • Was it outside your expertise? • Did you lack capital? • Was your analysis wrong? Don't regret. Learn.

Why people sell winners early: • Fear of losing profits • Need to 'take something off the table' • Portfolio rebalancing rules • Price targets reached Why they shouldn't: • Price targets are guesses • Winners will cover the losers • Time beats timing

Your brain is wired to seek safety in numbers. But the greatest investors in history made their fortunes by standing alone. The path to extraordinary returns often requires the courage to look wrong temporarily.

The strongest business moats are invisible to customers but impossible for competitors to cross. Microsoft doesn't just sell software - they sell an ecosystem that's too expensive to leave.

Why small investors win: • Can hold for decades • Free to buy market crashes • Focus on best ideas • No career risk • Buy small, growing companies Big funds can't do any of these.

Want to know the difference between good and great? Great people treat their time like a product. They package their best hours, price them at a premium, and sell them to their most important client: themselves. It worked for Munger:

Want to spot a great investment? Look for companies selling products people use every single day. Toothpaste. Soap. Food. The boring stuff is what builds lasting wealth.

Most investors obsess over what to buy. Great investors obsess over what's worth keeping and when to sell.

Two types of companies: • Those that fund growth with profits • Those that fund growth with debt Choose the first one.

Even "normal" 2% inflation is devastating over time. It's the silent wealth killer most people ignore. While you're comfortable watching your savings account grow by 0.1%, inflation is cutting your purchasing power in half every 35 years.

The best companies aren't just built for today. They're built to be better tomorrow.

People think investing needs mathematical precision. But the future is murky - it needs wisdom, not Excel.

Most see market drops as reasons to sell. Owners see them as temporary noise in a permanent business.

Exciting traders check their phones 100 times per day. Boring investors check their accounts 4 times per year.

Don't chase companies that look good on paper. Chase companies that generate real cash in the bank.

Most investors obsess over when to buy. Great investors obsess over when NOT to sell.

If you can't articulate the opposite view better than its supporters, you haven't earned the right to disagree with it. Strong opinions require stronger homework.

You'll never catch every great investment opportunity. But you don't need to catch them all to be successful.

Warren Buffett bought American Express when everyone thought he was crazy. That's the secret: the best investments often look wrong before they're proven right. The crowd eventually catches up to the truth.

Strong companies have moats: • Economies of scale (Walmart) • Network effects (PayPal) • IP rights (Disney) • Switching costs (Microsoft) Weak companies have: • No cost advantages • No network • No unique assets

Most people think big Wall Street funds have all the advantages. But they're trapped by career risk, quarterly pressure, and size limitations. Meanwhile, small investors can take bold positions, hold for decades, and invest in tomorrow's winners today.

Your best investments will test your conviction multiple times. Everyone likes to see the chart of Microsoft going up. Here are the drawdowns:

• People who succeed: • Sell their best hours to themselves • Invest in learning daily • Build long-term skills • Control their calendar People who struggle: • Give away their best hours • React to others' demands • Chase quick wins • Let others control their time

Most investors chase the next big thing. I prefer to chase predictable cash flows.

The Charlie Munger Method: • Block your first hour • Treat it like a client meeting • Never reschedule it • Use it for learning • Compound the knowledge • Watch wealth follow

Your financial peace isn't built on your income - it's built on your savings rate. The more automatic your savings, the more inevitable your wealth becomes. Start small, stay consistent, let time do the heavy lifting.

Great investors master: • Finding hidden opportunities • Valuing assets accurately • Sizing positions properly • Monitoring holdings religiously • Selling disciplined • Evolving constantly Average investors: • Chase hot tips • Buy without analysis • Bet too big • Hope and pray

Great companies don't need constant capital injections to grow. They're like well-oiled machines, taking profits from one success and turning them into another. Think Amazon: from books to everything else.

Everyone wants to be right. Few want to do the work required to become right.

Short-term traders watch charts. Long-term investors watch businesses.

Most fear losing money in the market. I fear watching inflation silently steal my purchasing power.

Why most investors fail: • React to headlines • Ignore fundamentals • Sell in panic • Chase trends Why thinking like an onwer helps you succeed: • Focus on business • Ignore noise • Stay patient • Collect dividends