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tobiolabode.bsky.social
DS/ML & Climate
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Interesting to see the text-to-software space grow. As models get better. But, few things are hype though.

The text to software products are cool as models get better. But I do wonder if falls into the bucket of no-code tools of the past. Were their are great for the first draft or basic software. But any precise customisation. There it becomes more difficult than actually coding the software yourself.

Skylar Payne's Cursor Guide is arguably one of the top practical AI development tutorials online. IMO

Sometimes the best thing you can do as a software engineer. A simple 10-line script or 30-second video clip. Not anything fancy.

My experience with o1 and DeepSeek, are great for programming. But provide critical mistakes making the code un-usable. Here the human always needs to be at the wheel.

LLMs are powerful tools, not magic solutions. They're part of your toolkit, not a replacement for human judgment.

Great essay by Jack Clark. (ImportAI) The new generation of thinking models. Mean curiosity is the biggest differentiator for users.

R1 showed can turn any open source model into a thinking model. Things are about to get interesting.

"We going to stop using cars due to better gas mileage," said nobody ever. This applies to the current compute demand debate right now.

Prediction: Massive Cost reductions coming due to DeepSeek. The Flash Gemiai already has similar costs to Deepseek. Stay tuned for "mini" models getting a big upgrade.

Been seeing some takes - Post DeepSeek. About demand for compute. No - Compute is not going away. Much more efficient yes. But still lots of gains by scaling up new frontier models.

Tobi’s Substack tobiolabode.substack.com?r=8netp&utm_... Been looking write for longer form content - stay tuned.

I've tried DeepSeek - Great at Programming, Great at Writing and most importantly cheap. AI Safety is done differently from Western AI companies. So writing is much more creative.

I won't be surprised if DeepSeek releases a big model within the next 3 months. Using the same arc as R1.

Think Compute will decline after DeepSeek? Not true. It means you'll get more for your investment. The same billion-dollar spend on DeepSeek Arc enhances your capabilities beyond what was possible before. But massive CapEx from Wall Street is over IMO.

Expert investors asked 65.1% specific financial questions vs 50.8% from novices. The real edge? Knowing exactly what to ask your AI assistant. Paper - AI, Investment Decisions, and Inequality

Everyone's shouting about 20% AI growth, but here's the inconvenient truth: transformative tech rarely creates overnight revolutions. It creates compounding gains. Like electricity before it, AI's real power is in the slow reshape 🌱

Seems like LLMs can deal with the cold start problem for new projects.

Fascinating pattern: Pro investors start broad, then drill down strategically. Meanwhile, newer investors showed 21.5% query redundancy (vs pros' 14%). Experience shapes how we interact with AI. 🤔 Paper: AI, Investment Decisions, and Inequality

Sophisticated investors + AI = 18% better at predicting earnings Everyone else + AI = only 7% improvement Paper by MIT-Chicago Booth Reserach 2024

The American insurance market is not in a good spot - California wildfires to Florida hurricanes.

New pre-print! 🎙️🦉 Automated Note Annotation after Bioacoustic Classification: Unsupervised Clustering of Extracted Acoustic Features Improves Detection of a Cryptic Owl papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... #bioacoustics #machinelearning #conservation

LLM integration success = Base model + Prompt template + Data Strategy Pro tip: Start with a pre-trained model like GPT-4o, then customise with your data and prompts.

A common pattern I've seen so far is homes that have been saved through domestic fire prevention practices. Ex fire retardants, homemade sprinkler systems, and brick houses. These are quite costly investments - moving back means someone has to pick up the tab. Taxpayers or Private citizens.

Case #422 for more market integration within Europe. "The UK and smaller northern countries are ahead of the USA. Only 40% of Italians made ANY online purchase in the last 3 months." The EU-Inc by Andreas Klinger looks necessary by the day. Charts Via Ben Evans.

LLMs are great for the boring work. Doing simple joins and conditions. You don't need to boil the ocean to make LLMs useful for you.

🔥 California saw 8,835 wildfires in 2021 alone! The threat is real and growing. Stay informed about fire risks in your area. Imagine how many are there now.

Rednote - That new viral app everyone's downloading? Its code reveals more tracking features than my home security system 🔍

Former Patagonia CEO mentions the absolute focus on quarterly results does not make sense. Funny - She used to be a public CFO.

Energy search trends reveal: • D.C. leads with +59% interest (policy hub) • NC (+23%) & GA (+16%) show solar surge • TX (+21%) curious about renewables The states building the new stuff vs writing new laws.

Following up with Simon Wilson and Peter Level's point about LLMs - It makes making small-scale software much easier. Don't use it to design your data architecture. But writing up some unit tests and basic joins is great.

AI agents now simulate human behaviour with 85% accuracy. Via Deepmind paper. Using LLMs for behavioural insights may be here.

Domain Knowledge makes all the difference when designing prompts. No need to do "Imagine you're XYZ". When you can just ask your colleague.

substack.com/@richholmes/...

Hot Take: I've brought this up before, but adapting to climate change might hold greater economic and political significance than cutting emissions. Just due to the immediate negative effects.

Found this absolute gem of a texbook on NLP recently, with context from the last few years web.stanford.edu/~jurafsky/sl...

Geospatial image on the LA fires. The Sheer Scale is something else.

ChatGPT produces less tokens as it's on holiday for Christmas. 😆

Just minding my own business here. 😄

Been using Claude to help me with my annual review (old journal and daily reviews). Would recommend.

Bruh - How does one get data from the dark ages?

It doesn't only do Office files! You can use it to get YouTube transcript or transform articles to Markdown! uvx --python 3.12 markitdown "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KcV1C1Ui5s" | llm "Summarize the video"