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toddfriesen.bsky.social
Disability Actuary; Health; Science; Climate Change; Economics; Boston Marathon Qualifier; Winnipegger
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Final Update: 2025 Federal Election Seat Projection. What do you think will happen tonight?

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

A few comments on the @mark-carney.bsky.social platform released today. You can find it here: liberal.ca/cstrong/. I provided some 'sounding board' advice here and there to those working on the platform. As always: I disclose, but you can decide what weight to put on that. Thread below...

submitted 10 days ago • 11 comments

New Canada seat projection model. 200 simulations, LPC majority in all of these (188-215).

submitted 11 days ago • 1 comment

Blue Jackets need a regulation win tonight to stay in the playoff hunt. Could we see a goalie pull in a tie game late in the 3rd? Canadiens on verge of clinching if Jackets don't win in regulation.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

I've seen plenty of these mailers in the past, but this one steps up the level of egregiousness! How many false dichotomies and other logical fallacies can you spot?

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

I'm curious for anyone in Elmwood-Transcona, which election signs you've seen the most of (NDP/LPC/CPC)? It's probably one of the harder to predict ridings in Canada right now. 2024 By-election saw very small LPC vote share, but it was much closer when Trudeau won a majority.

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

2025 Canada Election projection. Two day update (last posted on Threads) sees LPC down 2 seats (MB/BC), NDP up 1 (MB) and CPC up 1 (BC). No clear trend in polling over the last week.

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

So, assuming these tariffs significantly reduce global trade with US, and manufacturing capacity doesn't go anywhere, would Canadian import prices come significantly down (excluding US)? Then again, maybe US demand is inelastic, they can't produce things more cheaply, and will pay the tariffs.

submitted 24 days ago • 1 comment

I'm skeptical the federal debates will bring much opportunity to shift sentiment. 5 leaders is too many, and one of them is polling at 2%, and two others under 10%. 5 leaders = 20 (5x4) possible 1v1 confrontations. Far too little time, and any jabs will feel scripted.

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

submitted 25 days ago • 94 comments

Both @kevinmilligan.bsky.social and @trevortombe.bsky.social are worth a read regarding US tariffs. They strongly disagree on the surface, but largely share the same set of economic principles and theory.

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

Not a bad day's work for Josh, bringing home the high school championship 🏆 and team banner in chess!

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

runningmagazine.ca/sections/run...

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

I haven't found a Paul Chiang take that explains his thought process. Maybe it was a joke in bad taste? But frankly, I haven't seen this explained in any detail. Many are assuming it isn't a joke. There doesn't seem to be basis to debate the severity. Perhaps benefit of the doubt is not warranted.

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

I have been doing a lot of processing on federal election polling. It's hard to come to a full understanding of how the numbers have shifted so dynamically in a short period of time. A few thoughts: 🧵

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

Proud Dad moment. My kid got top math contest score in MB on Grade 11 Fermat. Honestly, he's miles ahead of me w.r.t. mathematical puzzles and I do math modeling as a living.

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

Quick start for the Jets!

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

With NDP/BQ down in the polls, a majority government looks increasingly likely. Just a 3% window for a minority government. LPC needs about 37-38% for a majority, and can win a majority while losing the popular vote by a significant margin.

submitted 35 days ago • 1 comment