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tompepinsky.com
Teacher, researcher, globalist, republican. Banned from Russia, because dictators fear the truth. Currently clean on OPSEC. tompepinsky.com
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Bring him home…👇 No more excuses. Bring. Home. Abrego. Now. ✨ #BringHomeAbrego

<spud> I'm a bit of a perfectionist

Essential point. Everyone knows braggarts and loud-mouthed idiots like this. Just do not listen to them.

Every elected Democrat should be mocking senior administration officials for being too weak to stand up to El Salvador, and the president for being too weak to stand up to his own cabinet. These are the big tough guys who want to invade our neighbors? Sound like wimps and simps to me.

moving fast and breaking things

I maintain a small portfolio of indicators of how bad things are in financial markets, and one of them is "leaders of important financial firms use words like 'fortress' to describe their balance sheet"

In any authoritarian regime, there are people who make a livelihood by rationalizing the actions of the leadership, making them palatable to a general audience by offering analogies with reasonable theoretical statements. Their profesisonal title is usually something like "chief propagandist"

In 5 years, will you want to be known as a company that bribed the president to avoid being treated like every other American, or one that resisted? (cc law firms)

It's probably useful for corporate America to remember that it is illegal to bribe a public official *even if* the public official asks for a bribe. And, in turn, that President Trump will not be the president forever

This is so obvious. The Democratic Party, to have a future, just has to fight for workers and against handouts to unproductive bosses

My lord, the entire government is guys who can't figure out their phones

university presidents, law firm partners, governors, media moguls: there is an army of lawyers willing to defend you against the raft of patently illegal demands by the administration. if you step up, you will have defenders, waves of amicus filings, huge public support.

why are we discretizing continuous variables, friends

The people who reacted to Trump's 90-day "pause" are chasing lines on a screen, not calculating the short-term effects of a trade war. These are not serious people.

And in the meantime, no backtracking whatsoever on his assaults on law firms, universities, immigrants, the press, freedom of expression, or the military

Damn that’s straight up dangerous misinformation.

👇 read this to learn the risks De-dollarization is not inevitable. There must be another safe asset, and there's nothing at scale on offer. But the bond vigilantes have saddled up and if they will not hold this asset, they will hold another one.

The spike in Treasury yields is highly unusual & concerning. I don't want to draw too strong a conclusion from a single snapshot in time, but the list of potential disruptions to the status quo where USD/Treasuries = world's 'safe asset' is long & getting longer. Here's a non-exhaustive list. 🧵1/9

High time for what colleagues have been advocating as a compact of mutual defense and a shared litigation strategy.

Indonesia, November 1997. - The real economy, not the speculators - The real Americans, not the globalists - The real people, not the rats - Democracy just means demo + crazy

Read every single word. This is the chronicle of our times.

I'm not kidding that any Dem who wants to run in 2028 should get out ahead of this and loudly say if El Salvador puts American citizens in Trump's gulag we'll fucking invade.

I wrote this in November 2024. It was a difficult thing to write then, and it is a depressing thing to read now. And yet I share it because I think we still need to ask ourselves how far we will go.

Devastating news for my colleagues, my students, my community, for the state of New York, and for the entire world. Of course, they will not stop here.

The political economy of this bullshit: evidence from all this bullshit

Neo-colonialism by choice. Real Noriega energy here.

This is exactly right. We have a duty to our students to defend their right to live and work freely and safely in the United States, and we have a duty to our institutions and communities to advocate for our own best interests. These are completely aligned.

Indeed. "My union supports making your car more expensive" is terrible optics

watch your boy on the far left enjoying the hell out of this

Hey Grok, draw me an unlimited supply of tulips, Studio Ghibli style

The last time the Hang Seng had a drop this severe…. well, I wrote a dissertation about it

<Cosmo in Sneakers> Wait. A computer matched him with them? I don’t think so.

Yes, yes, keep going. Why would the algorithm suggest that *this* group chat have Jeffrey Goldberg in it?

One implication of this argument is, if DOGE tries to fire you tomorrow, you could simply ignore them. Walk right into your workplace. Politely ask anyone who tries to stop you, on whose authority they are acting. And then ask them if they believe that authority will last two more weeks.

So. I wrote a dissertation on how economic crises can lead to the breakdown of authoritarian regimes. Here are three key point to keep in mind as you watch the news this week 🧵

Just a remember that if you invested in the Dow, the S+P, the NASDAQ, gold, and Bitcoin on January 1, 2025, the only thing that Bitcoin beats is the NASDAQ