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tompope.bsky.social
Deputy Chief Economist @instituteforgov.bsky.social On Twitter @tompope0
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New @instituteforgovernment.org.uk work from @rebeccamckee.bsky.social and me on the Onderzoeksraad voor Veiligheid (that's Dutch Safety Board to you and me), with some lessons for the UK on how to run public inquiries. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/du...

If your blood pressure thinking about foreign affairs wasn't high enough, here's an @instituteforgovernment.org.uk explainer from me on defence spending. How much do we spend? How much did we used to spend? What do we spend on? Questions asked, questions answered ...

NEW REPORT: How does patient satisfaction with general practice vary in England? And what do patients value in their practice? We find that patients prefer: - More GP partners - More GP appts - More F2F appts - Smaller list sizes Other findings👇 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Really interesting opportunity for anyone interested in influencing tax policymaking, working with excellent CenTax team @arunadvani.bsky.social @andy-summers.bsky.social If you have skills/experience in policy-orientated analysis and engagement, do apply centax.org.uk/job-vacancy-...

In the second of @instituteforgov.bsky.social series marking 20 years since the creation of HMRC, former chair @edwardtroup.bsky.social looks at how it changed tax policy making eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com?url=http%3A%...

Parliament will be recalled tomorrow for a debate on the future operation of British Steel. We've updated our explainer on what recalling parliament means www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/re...

another day another @instituteforgov.bsky.social tariff updated explainer by me and @tompope.bsky.social building on earlier work by James Kane

Quite aside from the fact the NHS is already under managed vs other health systems and the private sector, job losses of this scale (on top of those already announced at NHSE and ICBs) are just a massive distraction. Everyone will be focused on managing redundancies rather than improving services

"Globalisation has generated a lot of wealth but some communities have been hit, it's been uneven, and we'd rather see growth in every place" isn't a new insight. It could be lifted from any centre left pamphlet of the last thirty years. I earnestly hope today's speech goes beyond repeating this.

Exciting to hear @andyburnham.bsky.social talk @instituteforgov.bsky.social about focusing on *people* rather than individual services in local service delivery via GM's 'Live Well' initiative. So often unmet need in one part of someone's life has major knock-on effects on other services.

Watching an Andy Burnham speech at the IfG about the next phase of devolution. He says that when he said in his 2021 election victory speech that it cost three times as much to get a bus in Harpurhey (I didn’t catch to where) as in Harringey, No 10 rang afterwards to ask whether this was true

At our @instituteforgov.bsky.social event, Andy Burnham criticises DfE’s resistance to devolution, calling it a blocker to growth

Burnham calls the combined authority model the game changer the British state needs

Andy Burnham’s keynote at the @instituteforgov.bsky.social - tune in and add questions at the link below

The Spring Statement was "exactly the wrong way to be making complex policy changes, tweaking policy to hit a precise number in an uncertain and inevitably changeable forecast", writes the Institute for Government's @tompope.bsky.social

and to make this line-up even better we can now add in Ed Balls, former SoS, spad, Chief Economic Adviser and shadow Chancellor as well as co-host of my favourite podcast @polcurrency.bsky.social. Blair/Brown govts used reviews a lot - and well......

EVENT: Keir Starmer has commissioned a number of high-profile reviews into difficult policy areas. But what needs to be done to ensure they succeed? Join us on Thursday 3 April to hear from Dame Carol Black, Dame Tracey Crouch and Sir Howard Davies www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/govern...

Here is our @instituteforgov.bsky.social take on the Spring Statement, covering key questions we were looking out for on how the economic forecast would move and how Reeves would respond Some key takeaways 1/5 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...

"Rushing out policy decisions to chase small forecast revisions is no way to make stable long-term policy." Follow our IfG experts for our instant reaction to today's spring statement. @tompope.bsky.social @gemmatetlow.bsky.social @danhaile.bsky.social @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social

One of the key (downside?) risks around this latest OBR forecast is shown in this chart. The OBR is more optimistic about productivity growth than any other forecaster it includes in its external average Let's hope they're right

OBR thinks real growth will be weaker this year but then bounce back more strongly so no permanent hit to the size of the real economy - but growth will be less tax rich than expected, and higher gilt rates, so bad news for public finances

Our definition of 'fiscal fine-tuning' in our report on the fiscal framework last year. Today's statement is a textbook example (albeit capital budgets were protected this time) www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Reeves announces OBR has scored positive supply side impact from planning reforms. OBR were previously reluctant to do this without being convinced changes would actually be legislated and implemented as promised. Suggests they are now convinced planning reforms will make a difference in practice.

OBR has finally conceded that planning reforms might raise growth ... "biggest +ve growth effect ever"... #springstatement

Rachel Reeves seems to have cobbled together just enough new announcements to restore her wafer-thin headroom against her fiscal rules, but another normal forecast revision in the coming months could easily throw her off course again

Additional capital spending (mainly to meet the defence commitment) shows the effect of a new set of fiscal rules that distinguish between day-to-day and investment spend. If the old debt rule was still binding, capital would have been an easy candidate for cuts

Ahead of tomorrow's Spring Statement, here's an @instituteforgov.bsky.social explainer on the OBR. What's the role of the OBR? What's it got right/wrong since 2010? Why do its forecasts matter to chancellors? Questions, questions ... www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/of...

NEW report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on school readiness: - Who is most at risk of not being school ready? - What does this mean for the govt's opportunities mission? Is the target for 75% of children to be 'school ready' helpful? 🧵⬇️ www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

New from me on why pothole politics risks undermining MHCLG’s efforts to simplify funding for local government👇 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/poth... Drawing on lessons from mine and @tompope.bsky.social report on local growth funding👇 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

It's all too tempting for government to do this (& go big on it in the media) but asking 'every council in England' to publish how many pot holes they've filled is overly burdensome & bad for everyone. It's a regressive move after some positive steps on LG finance reform www.gov.uk/government/n...

Civil service cuts - a 🧵 with some initial reactions… Civil Service told to slash running costs by 15% www.bbc.com/news/article...

The big Q on public spending is whether she further squeezes an already tight overall envelope. If she does, then will be even more important that the (reformed) spending review process produces really clear plans for how cuts will be made alongside improving performance of public services

Next week, the OBR will update its forecasts and we will hear from Rachel Reeves. What will the numbers look like? How much of a 'fiscal event' will it be? Here's what we will be looking out for... www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...

Next week's Spring Statement is looking like the set piece event it was never meant to be. We @instituteforgov.bsky.social have set out the key questions we'll be asking on the day. Check our website and bsky for analysis on the day 1/2 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...

🚨Civil service shrinks for the first time in years Stats out today showed civil service staff numbers fell at the end of last year - for the first time since 2022. This is only the second quarter in which numbers have fallen since the EU referendum.

Great to hear @darrenpjones.bsky.social pointing out the proliferation of KPIs/targets and the burden this puts on frontline services. This is something we talk about a lot @instituteforgov.bsky.social, the tighter spending gets, the more you need to pick priorities and match your targets to them!

If what this official says is true, then Rachel Reeves had basically a 50% chance of needing to take action this March given her starting headroom is so low... Seems like a very flimsy commitment to a single fiscal event per year. www.ft.com/content/2f72...

I'd love to see Rachel Reeves launch a fundamental review of the tax system - to make it more efficient/fairer/growth enhancing and just decide that she might as well use her economics background to deliver a legacy of real improvement - even if it doesn't poll well straight away.