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torewig.bsky.social
Political Science Professor at University of Oslo. Working on political violence, war, democracy and autocracy. Visiting 24-25 Nuffield College & DPIR Oxford University.
78 posts 3,356 followers 1,148 following
Prolific Poster

En route to @ispsyale.bsky.social to present "The Power of Spectacle: What Political Elites Believe About Breaking with Donald J. Trump", which is joint work with Martin Bisgaard and @aarslew.bsky.social. Honored to be invited to present at this workshop on America's Contested Democratic Creed!

A slightly positive 🧵 in a dark time. Research on dictatorships and democratic backsliding suggests that the American experiment with authoritarianism could be brief. There are five reasons for this:

More.

Alarms are blinking red

🛎️WP with @robbwiller.bsky.social and @m-b-petersen.bsky.social While US democracy burns, we study public opinion dynamics during democratic restoration led by @donald-tusk.bsky.social in Poland with lessons for current (e.g Poland) & future (US, hopefully) democratic forces. osf.io/preprints/os...

How did modern democracy spread so widely? @stasavage.bsky.social with an interesting review of our book "The Deep Roots of Modern Democracy" (and other recent contributions on the topic) in the JHPE. Important discussion in these difficult times. www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...

Looks like Russia played the long game and won the Cold War.

Trump is obviously caving in to Putin's demands 100%. However. Europe is more than large enough to support Ukraine in its defence, until the Russian economy runs into the brick wall it is heading towards. Important to realise this and *do what we must*.

I hate that this is right, but it is. Europeans would be very foolish to think they can wait 4 years and NATO will snap back. -4 years is a long time -US unlikely to have free & fair elections -Even if it does, Dems might lose -Even if they win, US could be 4 years away from being anti-NATO again

Absurd things I no longer consider unthinkable in 2025: - US start supporting Russia in Ukraine - Trump/Musk supports election interference/coup attempt in Germany - Europe aligning with China - Europe takes responsibility for own security

A dictatorship hosting another dictatorship to negotiate with an aspiring dictatorship about the future of a democracy that’s not represented.

The Washpost, which is bleeding millions of dollars and shrinking its staff, accepted -- and then rejected -- a $115,000 ad that criticized Elon Musk. Anyway, here's the ad that the Post's business side didn't want its readers to see ⤵️ thehill.com/media/514849...

Brief thoughts on a European force for Ukraine. I think there is a degree of requirements paralysis. It doesn’t have to be hundreds of thousands of troops, or cover a 1200km contact line. Where it is deployed, and in what role, is more important than the overall size. 1/

Democracy researchers please take note, and tell relevant colleagues: The Dep. of Pol. Sci. in Gothenburg is hiring a new Director for the V-Dem Institute. The Director will also serve as permanent (tenured) member of the Dep., with reduced teaching responsibilities during their tenure as Director.

Europe.

Posting here a thread by Stathis N. Kalyvas, who is not yet in BlueSky:

Oljefondet er til for fremtidige generasjoner. Nettopp derfor bør vi ignorere handlingsregelen og investere krigsprofitten i Europeisk sikkerhet. Vi står ved et once-in-a-generation veiskille. Skriver med @akselsterri.bsky.social i Aftenposten www.aftenposten.no/meninger/deb...

www.aftenposten.no/meninger/deb... Viktig kronikk av @torewig.bsky.social og Aksel B Sterri. Store deler av Norges krigsprofitør må brukes på å beskytte Ukraina og Europa. Underinvestering i fred er å stjele fra framtidige generasjoner.

“Det fremtidige generasjoner først og fremst trenger, er en verden hvor små staters interesser ivaretas og grunnlaget for fortsatt vekst er til stede. Står vi opp for disse verdiene i en usikker tid, vil våre etterkommere takke oss.” www.aftenposten.no/meninger/deb...

What a united Europe does next will determine future of not only Ukraine but the whole of the continent, and then the whole world. 2025 is going to be about what actions democracies (don’t) take, not what some others say. Actions speak louder than words. Europe it’s your move. Make it a good one.

Et 100 år gammelt gjenferd har våknet til live. For under 3 generasjoner siden sendte det en hel verden ut i død og tyranni. Nå står det og roper i ansiktet vårt, men vi nekter å tro det øynene våre ser og ørene våre hører. Det er på tide å våkne nå.

One way in which the Europeans can fairly easily and cheaply both *profit* from the current US self-coup AND *help* some good people: try to hire the many world-leading experts fired or at risk at NIH, CDC, HHS and so forth.

Dear Non-Fascist Europeans, The current US leaders believe they're allied with fascists inside your country against you, not allied with you against foreign invasion and threats to democracy. I'm sorry, I wish it weren't true, but it is. You really need to adjust. Sincerely, Non-fascist Americans

If Europe doesn’t find its proverbial balls immediately and take deterrent action, Russia will likely attack the Baltic states during the Trump presidency.

I keep arguing with some people including lawyers or professors I’ve known for a long time and respect about the past month, As they maintain the system will prevail, don’t get too excited, the bottom won’t fall out I keep telling them there is no bottom left and they just need to accept that…

To the right-wing pundits crowing over Vance's speech: if you are really "less worried" about a dictator-state that's invaded its neighbour, killed tens of thousands of people, reduced cities to rubble & engaged in mass rape and child abduction, than you are about "wokery", then you are truly lost.

Trump admin's vision for Europe now quite clear (even if it doesn't know how to implement): 1. Spheres of influence carve-up btwn US & Russia, centered on Ukraine 2. US freedom to extort trade & regulatory concessions, promote far right/undermine democracy in its sphere in exchange for protection

Helhjertet enig med @torewig.bsky.social i @morgenbladet.no : Vi må gjøre Norge til en attraktiv havn for de kloke hodene som nå flykter fra USA. www.morgenbladet.no/ideer/kommen...

@havardmn.bsky.social hadde en veldig fin post på LinkedIn for noen dager siden, som jeg har tenkt på og syns det er verdt å ta med inn her: "På tide å trene de demokratiske musklene." Vi vet at institusjonene og vår aksept for dem er et kriterie for demokratiet. (1/5)

Synes Nils August Andresen her argumenterer overbevisende for at Venstre sitt forslag om 100 millioner til Ukraina-støtte i 2025 er en god ide: www.minerva.no/nato-norge-s... 1/3

Learned a lot from the "Europe is slowing down vs. US" discourse on here and X. But maybe Europe has the best prospects long term? After all, it aint hard to choose where to invest between:one-party dictatorship (Chi.), a kakistocracy run by clowns (US) or imperfect but functioning democracy (Eur.).

Such a banger. The rain DAG has made its way around socials a few times, but check out the extremely lucid and incisive discussion section.

Trump first became President more than 8 years ago so don't let anyone tell you Europe couldn't have prepared. It could have. But instead of buying tanks or drones, most European leaders just repeated "this a wake-up call, this is a wake-up call" 487 times and now we're screwed

It was always pretty clear that if Trump won the election in 2024, the U.S would switch sides in the Ukraine-Russia war.

Any European leader who wakes up tomorrow and says confidently that Europe can rely on the USA to be a dependable defense partner, should be removed from office on grounds of wilful insanity.

As much as I can understand the outrage over Hegseth's and Trump's statements: None of this really comes as a surprise, does it? To me, it is a scandal how unprepared we are in Europe for what‘s happening.

Just so we're clear: Hegseth, or whoever wrote his talking points, has taken both NATO membership and a return to pre-2014 borders (which themselves reflect Russian aggression) off the table *before* negotiating with the Russians. Idiotic from a bargaining stance, not just morally bankrupt

No freaking way there's an international conference where declining hegemons are meeting to force capitulation on a small country defending itself against a hostile, fascist army who aims to dominate the European continent and **that conference is in Munich.**

This is an amazing opportunity to work with excellent collaborators on absolutely crucial work!

Can citizen action translate into incumbents changing their regimes from within? @chknutsen.bsky.social and I find that the answer is yes in our latest piece, “Citizen Action and Elite Responses: Opposition Mass Movements and Regime Change From Within”, now out in JCR: doi.org/10.1177/0022...

It's not just the lawyers, but everybody. They are laying the ground work to push past the courts. We all need to stand up.

In case you missed it, @torewig.bsky.social is visiting Oxford this year and he will be giving a talk today on the normative foundations of state-led security provision at @politicsoxford.bsky.social

My depressing thought for the day: it seems increasingly inevitable that quite soon, Trump decides to simply disregard a court finding that some of his actions are illegal or unconstitutional. Impeachment is attempted & fails thanks to loyal Republicans. At which point there are no good options.