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trident40.bsky.social
Nom de Post. Not financial, legal, medical, or life advice. Likes & RTs not endorsements.
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Oligarchs who are empowered to steal will not stop stealing. Musk will grab every single piece of business he can and use the power of the state to disable or destroy competition. We are a 3rd world country now. Wake the fuck up.

Well, jobless claims are out and they're getting a little more interesting again, and not in a good way. Where did the spike in initial claims come from and what are we seeing with Federal layoffs so far (which aren't included in the headline figures)? Details in the 🧵 #EconSky

Musk is openly stealing a $2 billion contract from Verizon. I don’t know what else to say. We are broken.

The 1-year Sharpe ratio for gold has just surpassed 1.6, ranking in the top 1% of all days since 1975. Gold tended to suffer poor mid-term returns the few other times its Sharpe ratio climbed this high. The ratio is high part because a fifth of all days in last year have recorded a new high. #Gold

U.S. credit applications for mortgages and auto loans are being rejected at the highest rate in more than a decade 🚨

An FDA vaccine advisory committee meeting scheduled for March to select the strains to be included in next season's flu shot has been canceled, a panel member says.

The SEC has closed the investigation into the Gemini Crypto exchange, which is controlled by the Winklevoss twins. There will be no enforcement action. The Winklevoss twins are strong Trump supporters.

The Trump Administration is using the weight of the federal government to force segregation and any analysis, organizing, or activation that attempts to minimize or work around this fact is going to fail.

JFC. The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is at its highest level since 2000, higher than during the Financial Crisis, higher than during COVID

Dean Karlan, Chief Economist at USAID, has resigned www.npr.org/sections/goa...

Fear & Greed 22 today. In the past year, only April 19, Aug 5 and Dec 19 were this low. What happened next on $SPY chart

xkcd.com/3056/

REMINDER: Don't let Elon be the lightning rod for Trump.

Died 1945, Reborn 2025 Welcome back, cavalry!

*WHITE HOUSE ORDERS AGENCIES TO PLAN FOR LARGE-SCALE STAFF CUTS buy stonks!

House Republicans just voted to gut Medicaid, which covers 1 in 5 Americans overall, including 41% of births and 63% of nursing home care. They also just voted to gut SNAP, on which 41 million food insecure Americans rely. This won’t just harm people. This will kill people. They own this.

This is insane.

This is a very good interview which Helene highlights what a breakout could look like in the markets

THINGS YOU DON'T READ AT MARKET BOTTOMS: Blmbrg -- 'William Blair is launching a frontier debt fund with a target to manage $2 billion in assets that offer attractive valuations in some of the riskiest markets'

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) reports "the worst steel demand environment since 2010 excluding COVID", citing the decline in domestic automotive production and "too much imported steel from abroad that drove unsustainably low steel prices". But they are "seeing a rebound so far in 2025".

Faster than I thought.

Guy on tv just said the last three months have been spectacular. SPX three months ago: 6000 Today: 6000 I want what he's smoking

BREAKING: West Texas measles outbreak reaches Austin area. "The person visited San Marcos from Gaines County on Feb 14 and was at Texas State University from 3 pm to 7 pm and Twin Peaks restaurant from 6 pm to 10 pm. "That person has tested positive for measles." www.statesman.com/story/news/h...

The US CESI (Citi Economoc Surprise Index) continues to trend lower, pointing to lower bonds yields and a weaker dollar ahead.

From the Dallas Fed's Mfg survey: "uncertainty in tariff threats & general chaos of another Trump presidency is weighing heavy on biz" "It is very hard to plan. Interest rates? Tariffs? Wow" "I have more uncertainty @ the future biz/consumer environment than ever before in my 40 yrs of operating"

What a sad and humiliating day for the US. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

This is Olive. She was just told she's a good dog. See if you can figure out which photo was taken before and which was taken after. 13/10

"What five things did you achieve last week ?"

Hegseth says firing of top military lawyers was about making sure "they don't exist to be roadblocks to anything that happens."

If you’re cheering for a South African sociopath to fuck over US military veterans then you should probably stop with that America first bullshit.

Ooof

The number of cases in this Texas measles outbreak has been roughly doubling every week. Do the math.

A troublingly relevant portion of One Long Night by @andreapitzer.bsky.social

The firing is bad but worse is bypassing dozens of senior officers to pick a retired 3-star for CJCS. What is this guy willing to do that the others wouldn’t?

This a thorough and well-researched piece from Geoffrey Skelley. Please share with your networks to highlight the benefits of government data to businesses, people, and government.

Over on X, simple tweets by my colleague Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal Constitution have been blocked. They were nothing but video of a town hall held by Rep. Rich McCormick R-GA where he was asked questions about DOGE

naked corruption and 100% regulatory capture not the stuff of healthy societies and eventually MARKETS

US services activity slips into contraction in February per the S&P Global Flash PMI, 49.7 vs 52.9 prior and 53.0 expected. Manufacturing was firmer, 51.6 versus 51.2 prior.

This BRK cash chart is making the rounds. BRK had low cash at dot com peak having cashed up in '98. Similarly, it cashed up 2 yrs before GFC and invested that cash into the peak (LHS). Great company and smart investors but BRK hasn't sustained any market outperformance in 23 yrs (RHS).

REVISED UP WOW 3.5% level means highest since 1995!!!! This is going to catch a bunch of Fed attention.

Please don’t turn this into ax grinding about Biden and DeJoy because, and I can’t emphasize this enough, what Trump is trying to do is illegal and being done with the goal of privatizing the USPS. You can’t use that playbook if you’re trying to make something better.

The IRS began to terminate thousands of employees Thursday, disrupting the agency when tax season is in full swing The CBO scored increases in hires to IRS as spending that paid for itself due to tax evasion. Refunds will be delayed. #waste

This is crazy. Case officers and analysts on rotational positions get fired? How stupid is this? www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/u...

"We're reducing risk." "Are you increasing your cash allocation?" "No, we're moving dry powder to HYG. It's a better cash surrogate." "..."