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troyteslike.bsky.social
Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free. Early access on Patreon. My average error rate is 1.4% for Tesla's production and 2.6% for deliveries.
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Tesla nearly reached 500,000 deliveries in a quarter but fell short due to limited demand. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem possible this year either, largely because of brand sentiment issues. This year’s best quarter will likely be below 470,000 but the situation seems to be getting worse.

submitted 3 days ago • 14 comments

Hi everyone. Based on the latest DMV VIN data (Vehicle Identification Numbers), Cybertruck production this quarter is lower than any of the last three quarters. For more details, check out my update on Patreon: www.patreon.com/posts/122773...

submitted 3 days ago • 5 comments

Tesla doesn’t need Nissan’s struggling U.S. car factories since its own factory utilization rate in the U.S. was only 48% last year, and it’s likely to drop even lower this year.

submitted 8 days ago • 6 comments

Tesla's sales in California dropped to just 26.1% of its US sales, the lowest level in the last four years. In other words, left-leaning customers are turning away from the Tesla brand. I’ve been considering ways to measure the impact of Elon’s political actions on Tesla sales.

submitted 12 days ago • 10 comments

For the first time, total sales of the Xiaomi SU7 have surpassed Tesla's Model 3 in China since deliveries began in Apr 2024 Sales in China (Apr 2024-Jan 2025): •Tesla Model 3: 152,748 •Xiaomi SU7: 162,384 Xiaomi, best known for its smartphones, started producing its first car, the SU7 in Apr 2024

submitted 13 days ago • 4 comments

1/2 I want to clear up some confusion. Elon previously mentioned a 20-30% delivery growth target for this year, but since he didn't repeat it in the last earnings call, it's no longer considered a target. Instead, Tesla stated: "We expect the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025."

submitted 15 days ago • 2 comments

I estimate less than 400K Tesla deliveries in Q1 because of these factors: (-) Model Y Juniper production limitations (-) Seasonality (-) Demand pulled forward in Q4 2024 (-) Brand Sentiment (+) Increase in demand due to the Model Y Juniper design refresh More details: patreon.com/posts/119824...

submitted 17 days ago • 3 comments

I expect Tesla sales in Europe to be lower this year due to brand sentiment, but it's hard to say by how much right now because of the Model Y supply issue caused by the Juniper upgrade. We’ll have a better idea in Q2. It could be anywhere from -8% to -25%. The tables below show sales in 2024 & 2023

submitted 18 days ago • 5 comments

1/ A Cybertruck driving autonomously with Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software version 13 crashed into a pole in Reno, Nevada, last night. The owner reported the accident today on Twitter and expressed regret for not monitoring FSD closely enough. x.com/MrChallinger...

submitted 19 days ago • 5 comments

Hi everyone. Update #1 for Tesla’s Q1 production and deliveries is out: patreon.com/posts/2025-Q... It includes DMV VIN data that shows Tesla's production in the US up to February 1st, January sales in Europe, a detailed breakdown of factors expected to impact Tesla sales this year, and more.

submitted 22 days ago • 4 comments

Yesterday, Canada imposed a 25% tariff on Teslas imported from the US. See: driveteslacanada.ca/news/canada-... Also, in Oct 2024, Canada increased tariffs on Chinese-made EVs to 100%. So, Tesla will likely start shipping Model Y from Giga Berlin to Canada. The import fee would be 6.1%.

submitted 26 days ago • 8 comments

1/2 Hi everyone. Someone asked me for Tesla export statistics, so I thought I’d share them here since it’s a current discussion topic For example, 49,747 Teslas made in the US were delivered outside the US, accounting for 7.4% of US-made deliveries in 2024 The next tweet has a more detailed table

submitted 26 days ago • 1 comment

Here are the Tesla delivery estimates for the full year: • My Estimate: 1,772,000 units • Analyst Consensus: 2,039,674 units Tesla delivered 1,789,226 cars in 2024, so I expect a 1% decline this year. Feel free to add your estimate below. Here are sales in 2023/2024 in case you want to review them

submitted 29 days ago • 6 comments

Tesla is facing significant brand image challenges in the US and Europe this year, so I expect sales to keep declining. Finishing the year flat would be a huge success, but it looks unlikely. 2024 Sales: • US: -36,740 units (-5.6%) • Europe: -39,192 units (-10.7%) • China: +48,462 units (+7.9%)

submitted 29 days ago • 5 comments

1/2 Tesla used to be a highly desirable brand. In 2022, they had 470K buyers waiting in line, trying to buy a Tesla. Model Y Long Range AWD, Tesla's most popular car in the US, was selling for $65,990 in 2022. Then Elon bought Twitter and Tesla’s brand image took a hit due to political controversy

submitted 29 days ago • 5 comments

Based on Elon's comment during the earnings call about launching a paid driverless robotaxi service in Texas in June this year, it seems Tesla plans to roll out a commercial service without testing driverless cars on public roads.

submitted 30 days ago • 3 comments